URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Abraham Paladino
Referee: G. Tejera
Progreso
Match Timeline
Wanderers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
N. Lopez
Progreso
🟨
23'
Rodrigo Rivero
Wanderers
🟨
37'
Facundo de León
Progreso
🔄
39'
A. Cougo ↔ F. Kidd
Progreso
🔄
45'
J. Zeballos ↔ M. Levato
Wanderers
🟨
51'
Hernan Carroso
Progreso
🔄
55'
L. Zazpe ↔ L. Baju
Wanderers
🔄
55'
R. Rivero ↔ J. Luna
Wanderers
🟨
61'
Nahuel Furtado
Wanderers
🔄
62'
F. De Leon ↔ S. Viera
Progreso
🔄
62'
M. Copelotti ↔ D. Sanchez
Progreso
🟨
69'
Agustin Pinheiro
Progreso
🔄
69'
F. Labandeira ↔ R. Roque
Wanderers
🔄
69'
N. Queiroz ↔ J. Alberti
Wanderers
🔄
76'
N. Lopez ↔ A. Paz
Progreso
🔄
76'
N. Fernandez ↔ A. Codagnone
Progreso
77'
J. Luna
Wanderers
89'
D. Sanchez
Progreso

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
65.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 25.2%
Draw 24%
Wanderers Win 50.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso1.11
Wanderers1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
9 GF / 18 GA
Wanderers Wanderers
WLDWL
12 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 11 matches
Wanderers Wanderers 11 matches
Progreso Statistic Wanderers
1 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
6 Losses 5
9 Goals For 12
18 Goals Against 17
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
4 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Wanderers. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Wanderers carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 14 points while Progreso sit 16 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Progreso expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and Wanderers in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wanderers having the stronger overall control.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 7 points from 11 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 9:18 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Copelotti (2 goals), F. Fernandez (1 goals), Facundo de León (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers sit 12 with 14 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 12:17, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Labandeira (2 goals), J. Luna (2 goals), L. Cosentino (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Progreso won 6 times, Wanderers won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Progreso's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.1%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-2-2 / Wanderers 5-4-1
H2H summary: Progreso wins 6, draws 3, Wanderers wins 6

Lineups

Progreso
Formation
Wanderers
A. Mehring
A. Mehring
G. Trasante
G. Trasante
H. Carroso
H. Carroso
F. Garcia
F. Garcia
A. Cougo
A. Cougo
A. Pinheiro
A. Pinheiro
A. Colombino
A. Colombino
N. Lopez
N. Lopez
N. Fernandez
N. Fernandez
F. De Leon
F. De Leon
M. Copelotti
M. Copelotti
A. Buffa
A. Buffa
N. Furtado
N. Furtado
L. Zazpe
L. Zazpe
L. N. Olivera Moreira
L. N. Olivera Moreira
F. Formiliano
F. Formiliano
N. Queiroz
N. Queiroz
G. Freitas
G. Freitas
J. Urretaviscaya
J. Urretaviscaya
R. Rivero
R. Rivero
J. Zeballos
J. Zeballos
F. Labandeira
F. Labandeira
Progreso 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Mehring
G
16
G. Trasante
D
13
H. Carroso
🟨 51'
D
3
F. Garcia
D
40
A. Cougo
↓ 39'
D
5
A. Pinheiro
🟨 69'
M
8
A. Colombino
M
11
N. Lopez
⚽ 8' ↓ 76'
F
29
N. Fernandez
↓ 76'
M
17
F. De Leon
↓ 62' 🟨 37'
M
23
M. Copelotti
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
33
A. Requena
G
15
M. Martin
D
4
M. Paolini
D
14
F. Kidd
↑ 39'
D
24
S. Viera
↑ 62'
M
10
I. Lemmo
M
22
A. Paz
↑ 76'
M
30
A. Codagnone
↑ 76'
M
93
D. Sanchez
⚽ 89' ↑ 62'
F
25
J. Dos Santos
F
Wanderers 4-5-1 (estimated)
Starting XI
33
A. Buffa
G
31
N. Furtado
🟨 61'
D
6
L. Zazpe
↓ 55'
D
23
L. N. Olivera Moreira
D
13
F. Formiliano
D
5
N. Queiroz
↓ 69'
M
25
G. Freitas
M
80
J. Urretaviscaya
M
7
R. Rivero
↓ 55' 🟨 23'
M
19
J. Zeballos
↓ 45'
F
30
F. Labandeira
↓ 69'
M
Substitutes
12
J. Rio
14
M. Acosta
17
A. Garcia
18
L. Baju
↑ 55'
24
P. Suarez
20
S. Guzman
9
R. Roque
↑ 69'
16
J. Alberti
↑ 69'
11
J. Luna
⚽ 77' ↑ 55'
70
M. Levato
↑ 45'
Last matches: Progreso
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
Last matches: Wanderers
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
11.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
13.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
H2H: Progreso vs Wanderers
11.07.26
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
L
18.04.26
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
21.09.25
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
W
27.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
1
D
10.11.24
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
0
D
14.07.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
2
L
04.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
L
15.11.21
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
1
W
31.07.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
L
21.03.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
3
W
20.09.20
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
0
W
05.10.19
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
0
1
W
09.03.19
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
2
D
23.09.18
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
3
2
L
31.03.18
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
1
L
Last matches: Progreso
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
01.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
L
19.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
2
3
L
05.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Miramar
3
2
W
24.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
09.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
29.11.23
Seg
Progreso
Albion FC
3
2
W
18.11.23
Seg
Progreso
Juventud
2
1
W
12.11.23
Seg
Progreso
Rampla Juniors
1
1
D
H2H at home: Progreso
18.04.26
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
21.09.25
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
W
10.11.24
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
0
D
15.11.21
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
1
W
20.09.20
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
0
W
09.03.19
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
2
D
31.03.18
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
1
L
Last matches: Wanderers
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
19.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
0
3
L
12.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
06.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
21.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
0
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Miramar
0
3
L
01.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
03.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
H2H away: Wanderers
18.04.26
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
L
21.09.25
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
L
10.11.24
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
0
D
15.11.21
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
1
L
20.09.20
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
0
L
09.03.19
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
2
D
31.03.18
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
1
W

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 12 4 5 36:22 14 40
L D W W D
2 21 12 4 5 32:19 13 40
W D W L W
3 20 10 8 2 26:16 10 38
D D D D W
4 21 9 6 6 30:22 8 33
L D W L L
5 20 9 5 6 32:25 7 32
W L W W L
6 21 10 2 9 32:28 4 32
L D W L W
7 20 9 5 6 27:25 2 32
D D W L W
8 21 9 5 7 26:25 1 32
W W D W D
9 20 6 7 7 23:22 1 25
L D W D L
10 20 7 4 9 22:21 1 25
D D W W L
11 20 5 9 6 16:17 -1 24
D D D L L
12 21 6 4 11 25:33 -8 22
W L D L L
13 21 6 4 11 19:29 -10 22
L D D L L
14 20 4 9 7 20:27 -7 21
D D D L L
15 21 4 4 13 17:32 -15 16
W L L W L
16 20 4 4 12 12:32 -20 16
W L L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)