18.04.2026 16:00
Parque Abraham Paladino
Referee: G. Tejera
Progreso
Match Timeline
Wanderers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
N. Lopez
Progreso
🟨
23'
Rodrigo Rivero
Wanderers
🟨
37'
Facundo de León
Progreso
🔄
39'
A. Cougo ↔ F. Kidd
Progreso
🔄
45'
J. Zeballos ↔ M. Levato
Wanderers
🟨
51'
Hernan Carroso
Progreso
🔄
55'
L. Zazpe ↔ L. Baju
Wanderers
🔄
55'
R. Rivero ↔ J. Luna
Wanderers
🟨
61'
Nahuel Furtado
Wanderers
🔄
62'
F. De Leon ↔ S. Viera
Progreso
🔄
62'
M. Copelotti ↔ D. Sanchez
Progreso
🟨
69'
Agustin Pinheiro
Progreso
🔄
69'
F. Labandeira ↔ R. Roque
Wanderers
🔄
69'
N. Queiroz ↔ J. Alberti
Wanderers
🔄
76'
N. Lopez ↔ A. Paz
Progreso
🔄
76'
N. Fernandez ↔ A. Codagnone
Progreso
⚽
77'
J. Luna
Wanderers
⚽
89'
D. Sanchez
Progreso

Progreso vs Wanderers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
65.5%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 25.2%
Draw 24%
Wanderers Win 50.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso1.11
Wanderers1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
9 GF / 18 GA
Wanderers Wanderers
WLDWL
12 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 11 matches
Wanderers Wanderers 11 matches
Progreso Statistic Wanderers
1 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
6 Losses 5
9 Goals For 12
18 Goals Against 17
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
4 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Wanderers. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Wanderers carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 14 points while Progreso sit 16 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Progreso expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and Wanderers in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wanderers having the stronger overall control.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 7 points from 11 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 9:18 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Copelotti (2 goals), F. Fernandez (1 goals), Facundo de León (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers sit 12 with 14 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 12:17, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Labandeira (2 goals), J. Luna (2 goals), L. Cosentino (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Progreso won 6 times, Wanderers won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Progreso's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.1%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-2-2 / Wanderers 5-4-1
H2H summary: Progreso wins 6, draws 3, Wanderers wins 6

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 5 6 48:24 24 58
W W W W L
2 30 16 7 7 46:27 19 55
W W L W L
3 29 16 5 8 51:34 17 53
L W W W W
4 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
L D W L W
5 30 15 4 11 45:38 7 49
W W D D W
6 30 12 10 8 39:28 11 46
W D L W D
7 29 12 8 9 36:35 1 44
D D L W L
8 30 10 8 12 32:39 -7 38
L L D D L
9 30 9 9 12 35:39 -4 36
D W D D W
10 29 9 7 13 37:38 -1 34
L L L L L
11 30 8 9 13 28:34 -6 33
L L D L D
12 30 9 6 15 23:43 -20 33
D L W W D
13 29 7 11 11 25:33 -8 32
L W D L D
14 30 8 6 16 29:42 -13 30
L L L L D
15 30 8 4 18 25:43 -18 28
W W L W W
16 29 4 14 11 24:38 -14 26
D D L L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)