26.09.2026 14:00
Parque Abraham Paladino

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds 1.98
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.3%
1.98
BTTS No
50.8%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
1.60
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 0-1
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 34.9%
Draw 5.9%
Racing Montevideo Win 59.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso0.78
Racing Montevideo1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
23 GF / 42 GA
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WLDWL
35 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
12
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 29 matches
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 29 matches
Progreso Statistic Racing Montevideo
7 Wins 14
4 Draws 11
18 Losses 4
23 Goals For 35
42 Goals Against 22
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
12 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 13
13 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Racing Montevideo's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Racing Montevideo. Racing Montevideo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 53 points while Progreso sit 16 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Progreso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Racing Montevideo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Racing Montevideo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Progreso Analysis

With 25 points from 29 games and a place of 16, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 23:42, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Placed 3 with 53 points from 29 outings, Racing Montevideo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 11 draws, and 4 losses, while the 35:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-3-1 / Racing Montevideo 4-4-2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 5 6 46:23 23 55
W W W L D
2 28 16 5 7 51:32 19 53
W W W W W
3 29 14 11 4 35:22 13 53
D W L W D
4 29 15 7 7 44:27 17 52
W L W L D
5 29 14 4 11 43:38 5 46
W D D W W
6 29 12 8 9 36:35 1 44
D D L W L
7 29 11 10 8 37:27 10 43
D L W D W
8 29 10 8 11 31:37 -6 38
L D D L L
9 29 9 8 12 35:39 -4 35
W D D W W
10 29 9 7 13 37:38 -1 34
L L L L L
11 29 8 9 12 28:32 -4 33
L D L D D
12 29 7 11 11 25:33 -8 32
L W D L D
13 29 9 5 15 23:43 -20 32
L W W D L
14 29 8 6 15 28:40 -12 30
L L L D W
15 29 4 14 11 24:38 -14 26
D D L L D
16 29 7 4 18 23:42 -19 25
W L W W L
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