Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
79.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
26.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
87.7%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Progreso
13 matches
Cerro Largo
13 matches
| Progreso | Statistic | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 4 | Draws | 2 |
| 7 | Losses | 7 |
| 11 | Goals For | 13 |
| 20 | Goals Against | 16 |
| 0.85 | Avg Goals Scored | 1 |
| 1.54 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.23 |
| 5 | BTTS Yes | 5 |
| 8 | Over 1.5 | 8 |
| 5 | Over 2.5 | 5 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 1 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 0 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Progreso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cerro Largo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro Largo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro Largo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Progreso have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
With 10 points from 13 games and a place of 14, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 11:20, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Copelotti (2 goals), D. Sanchez (1 goals), F. Fernandez (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 13 matches, Cerro Largo have collected 14 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 13:16 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (3 goals), D. Daguerre (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Progreso won 3 times, Cerro Largo won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:17 from Progreso's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.
Lineups
Progreso
Albion FC
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Penarol
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Boston River
Progreso
Cerro
Progreso
Albion FC
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Central Espanol
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
Danubio
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
Juventud
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia
Progreso
Albion FC
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Penarol
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
Boston River
Progreso
Albion FC
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Central Espanol
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Cerro
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Miramar
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Juventud
Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia
Cerro Largo
CA River Plate
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Miramar
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Juventud
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 35:20 | 15 | 39 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 25:15 | 10 | 37 |
D
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 28:18 | 10 | 36 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:20 | 9 | 32 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31:26 | 5 | 31 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 2 | 31 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29:24 | 5 | 29 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22:24 | -2 | 26 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22:20 | 2 | 25 |
D
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 10 |
Cerro Largo
Away
|
19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21:20 | 1 | 24 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
| 11 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 15:16 | -1 | 23 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19:26 | -7 | 21 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19:26 | -7 | 19 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 18 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 15 |
Progreso
Home
|
19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16:30 | -14 | 13 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
| 16 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10:31 | -21 | 13 |
L
L
W
L
L
|