BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Primavera MG
Match Timeline
Luverdense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
Caique
Primavera MG
🟥
90+4'
Luverdense
Luverdense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Primavera MG Win 31.2%
Draw 18.5%
Luverdense Win 50.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Primavera MG1.23
Luverdense0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Primavera MG Primavera MG
WWDLW
7 GF / 6 GA
Luverdense Luverdense
WLDWL
5 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
3
BTTS Yes
3
1
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Primavera MG Primavera MG 6 matches
Luverdense Luverdense 6 matches
Primavera MG Statistic Luverdense
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 2
7 Goals For 5
6 Goals Against 8
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
3 BTTS Yes 3
5 Over 1.5 4
1 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Primavera MG's more proactive style and Luverdense's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Luverdense having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Luverdense.

Primavera MG Analysis

Placed 3 with 8 points from 6 outings, Primavera MG continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Caique (5 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Luverdense Analysis

Luverdense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 8 points after 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 5:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pedro Bortoluzo (2 goals), Bady (1 goals), D. Cruz (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Primavera MG won 1 times, Luverdense won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Primavera MG's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
H2H summary: Primavera MG wins 1, draws 3, Luverdense wins 1
Last matches: Primavera MG
07.06.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
1
D
Last matches: Luverdense
18.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
ABC
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
H2H: Primavera MG vs Luverdense
17.05.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
0
W
25.04.26
H2H
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
25.01.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
0
0
D
11.01.25
H2H
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
11.02.24
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
0
3
L
Last matches: Primavera MG
07.06.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
3
L
H2H at home: Primavera MG
17.05.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
0
W
25.01.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
0
0
D
11.02.24
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
0
3
L
Last matches: Luverdense
12.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
4
L
18.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
0
2
L
03.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
H2H away: Luverdense
17.05.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
0
L
25.01.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
0
0
D
11.02.24
H2H
Primavera MG
Luverdense
0
3
W

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)