BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Primavera MG
Match Timeline
Brasiliense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
Yuri Mamute
Primavera MG
45'
Tarta
Brasiliense
68'
R. da Silva
Brasiliense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 76.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.9%
-
BTTS Yes
76.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
56.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Primavera MG Win 38.7%
Draw 35.3%
Brasiliense Win 26.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Primavera MG1
Brasiliense1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Primavera MG Primavera MG
WWDLW
9 GF / 11 GA
Brasiliense Brasiliense
WLDWL
9 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1
4
BTTS Yes
6
2
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Primavera MG Primavera MG 9 matches
Brasiliense Brasiliense 9 matches
Primavera MG Statistic Brasiliense
3 Wins 2
3 Draws 5
3 Losses 2
9 Goals For 9
11 Goals Against 9
1 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1
4 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 6
2 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Brasiliense. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Brasiliense having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Primavera MG Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 12 points from 9 games, Primavera MG bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a 9:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Caique (6 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brasiliense Analysis

Brasiliense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 11 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, while the 9:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tarta (3 goals), Marlone (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Primavera MG won 0 times, Brasiliense won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Primavera MG's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (73.9%)
H2H summary: Primavera MG wins 0, draws 1, Brasiliense wins 1
Last matches: Primavera MG
30.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
4
L
17.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
1
D
Last matches: Brasiliense
27.06.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Goiatuba EC
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Luverdense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Inhumas
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Gama
2
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Aparecidense
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Aparecidense
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Gama
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Inhumas
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Luverdense
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
H2H: Primavera MG vs Brasiliense
07.06.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
2
L
05.04.26
H2H
Brasiliense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
Last matches: Primavera MG
17.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Luverdense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Inhumas
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Gama
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Primavera MG
Aparecidense
1
3
L
H2H at home: Primavera MG
07.06.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
2
L
Last matches: Brasiliense
27.06.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Gama
2
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Aparecidense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Inhumas
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Brasiliense
Luverdense
0
0
D
H2H away: Brasiliense
07.06.26
H2H
Primavera MG
Brasiliense
1
2
W