BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Porto BA
Match Timeline
Tombense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
Cesinha
Porto BA
45'
Luiz Felipe
Tombense
58'
Joao Vitor
Tombense
80'
Matheus Chaves
Tombense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Porto BA Win 44%
Draw 15.5%
Tombense Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Porto BA0.85
Tombense1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Porto BA Porto BA
WWDLW
8 GF / 14 GA
Tombense Tombense
WLDWL
10 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.63
4
BTTS Yes
3
6
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Porto BA Porto BA 8 matches
Tombense Tombense 8 matches
Porto BA Statistic Tombense
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 4
4 Losses 1
8 Goals For 10
14 Goals Against 5
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.63
4 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 4
6 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Tombense's more proactive style and Porto BA's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tombense having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tombense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Porto BA Analysis

Placed 5 with 10 points from 7 outings, Porto BA continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 7:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Cesinha (2 goals), Firmino (2 goals), Luan Rodrigues (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tombense Analysis

Placed 1 with 12 points from 7 outings, Tombense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 9:4 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cesar (3 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Porto BA won 0 times, Tombense won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:6 from Porto BA's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
H2H summary: Porto BA wins 0, draws 0, Tombense wins 2
Last matches: Porto BA
14.06.26
Ser
Porto BA
Rio Branco ES
0
4
L
25.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Democrata GV
1
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Real Noroeste
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Real Noroeste
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Democrata GV
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Tombense
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Rio Branco ES
3
2
W
Last matches: Tombense
27.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
2
2
D
03.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
1
0
W
H2H: Porto BA vs Tombense
30.05.26
H2H
Porto BA
Tombense
1
3
L
11.04.26
H2H
Tombense
Porto BA
3
0
L
Last matches: Porto BA
16.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Real Noroeste
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Democrata GV
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Rio Branco ES
3
2
W
H2H at home: Porto BA
30.05.26
H2H
Porto BA
Tombense
1
3
L
Last matches: Tombense
21.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
1
0
W
H2H away: Tombense
30.05.26
H2H
Porto BA
Tombense
1
3
W