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BRAZIL › SERIE B
24.10.2026 21:30

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 83.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
83.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 13.2%
Draw 3.6%
Fortaleza EC Win 83.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.68
Fortaleza EC1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
19 GF / 74 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
41 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.56
Average Goals Scored
1.21
2.18
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
14
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
12
3.15
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 34 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 34 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Fortaleza EC
3 Wins 16
5 Draws 12
26 Losses 6
19 Goals For 41
74 Goals Against 29
0.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
2.18 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
14 BTTS Yes 15
29 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 15
18 Failed To Score 8
3.15 Shots On Goal 4.06
10.21 Total Shots 13.82
4 Corners 5.26
40.9% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fortaleza EC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 60 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Fortaleza EC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta sit 20 with 14 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 26 defeats, and the 19:74 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandão (3 goals), William Pottker (3 goals), Elvis (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Placed 4 with 60 points from 34 outings, Fortaleza EC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 12 draws, and 6 losses, while the 41:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maílton (6 goals), Vitinho (6 goals), Luiz Fernando (3 goals), with creative support from Maílton (3 assists), Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Lucas Gazal (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 1 times, Fortaleza EC won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 3-4-1-2 / Fortaleza EC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 1, draws 1, Fortaleza EC wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 18 8 8 48:33 15 62
D W D W W
2 34 17 10 7 61:30 31 61
D W W W D
3 34 17 10 7 41:23 18 61
D D W W W
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 34 17 8 9 35:28 7 59
W W L W W
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 34 15 7 12 51:48 3 52
L D W L W
8 34 13 12 9 45:37 8 51
L D W W L
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 34 13 9 12 44:46 -2 48
L L L L D
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 34 12 10 12 46:37 9 46
L D L W D
13 34 12 8 14 38:38 0 44
W W W L W
14 34 10 14 10 40:39 1 44
D D L L D
15 34 11 10 13 37:42 -5 43
D L W W D
16 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
17 34 10 7 17 33:43 -10 37
D W W L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 34 5 5 24 22:54 -32 20
W L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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