BRAZIL SERIE B
20.09.2026 14:00
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz

Ponte Preta vs CRB Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 83.3%
Odds 1.29
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
83.3%
1.29
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.56
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.10
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 11.6%
Draw 5.1%
CRB Win 83.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.91
CRB1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
16 GF / 62 GA
CRB CRB
WLDWL
42 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
0.57
Average Goals Scored
1.5
2.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
12
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
17
3.25
Shots on Goal
5.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 28 matches
CRB CRB 28 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic CRB
2 Wins 13
4 Draws 6
22 Losses 9
16 Goals For 42
62 Goals Against 40
0.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
2.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
12 BTTS Yes 16
24 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 7
15 Failed To Score 6
3.25 Shots On Goal 5.79
10.68 Total Shots 17.86
4.39 Corners 4.96
42.2% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by CRB's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward CRB. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 4-4-2 and CRB in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CRB having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. CRB carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 42 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 10 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 21 defeats with a 16:56 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

CRB Analysis

So far, CRB have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 42 points from 27 matches. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 40:39 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Mikael (13 goals), Thiaguinho (3 goals), Crystopher (3 goals), with creative support from Dadá Belmonte (4 assists), Mikael (3 assists), Thiaguinho (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 7 times, CRB won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:16 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 4-4-2 / CRB 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 7, draws 2, CRB wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7
CRB Away
28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
Promotion
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