UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Kiira Road Police Arena
Police
Match Timeline
URA
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
J. Lubwama
URA
15'
L. Tezikya
Police
70'
B. Ikamba
Police

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
62.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Police Win 71.4%
Draw 6.8%
URA Win 21.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Police1.3
URA0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Police Police
WWDLW
34 GF / 27 GA
URA URA
WLDWL
19 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
15
BTTS Yes
8
13
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Police Police 23 matches
URA URA 23 matches
Police Statistic URA
11 Wins 4
5 Draws 11
7 Losses 8
34 Goals For 19
27 Goals Against 24
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
15 BTTS Yes 8
20 Over 1.5 11
13 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 9
3 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Police's more proactive style and URA's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors URA. Police arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 38 points compared to URA in 11 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Police have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward URA having the stronger overall control.

Police Analysis

With 38 points from 23 games and a place of 7, Police still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 32:26 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Ikamba (7 goals), L. Tezikya (4 goals), U. Kasumba (4 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

URA Analysis

So far, URA have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 23 points from 23 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 18:23 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Living (5 goals), F. Amaku (3 goals), M. Aliro (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Police won 4 times, URA won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:19 from Police's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
H2H summary: Police wins 4, draws 3, URA wins 8
Last matches: Police
23.05.26
Pre
Police
Kitara
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Police
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Police
UPDF
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Police
Maroons
1
3
L
16.04.26
Pre
Police
Mbarara City
2
1
W
08.04.26
Pre
Police
Express
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Police
NEC
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Police
SC Villa
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Police
BUL
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Police
Buhimba Saints
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Police
Lugazi
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Police
URA
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
1
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
2
0
W
06.01.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
2
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
Police
BUL
3
1
W
10.12.25
Pre
Police
Lugazi
1
1
D
Last matches: URA
22.05.26
Pre
URA
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
URA
KCCA
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
URA
Calvary
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pre
URA
Vipers
1
1
D
28.04.26
Pre
URA
Maroons
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
URA
UPDF
0
0
D
16.04.26
Pre
URA
BUL
1
1
D
09.04.26
Pre
URA
NEC
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
URA
Express
1
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
URA
Lugazi
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
URA
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
04.03.26
Pre
URA
Mbarara City
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
URA
Kitara
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
URA
SC Villa
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
URA
Police
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
URA
Calvary
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
URA
Vipers
0
3
L
13.01.26
Pre
URA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
URA
Mbarara City
0
1
L
11.12.25
Pre
URA
SC Villa
0
3
L
H2H: Police vs URA
21.04.26
H2H
Police
URA
2
1
W
31.01.26
H2H
URA
Police
0
0
D
25.04.25
H2H
Police
URA
2
0
W
07.01.25
H2H
URA
Police
1
0
L
22.04.22
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
L
30.11.21
H2H
URA
Police
0
0
D
15.05.21
H2H
URA
Police
3
1
L
09.03.21
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
L
06.03.20
H2H
URA
Police
1
2
W
05.11.19
H2H
Police
URA
0
1
L
01.05.19
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
L
24.11.18
H2H
URA
Police
0
0
D
03.03.18
H2H
URA
Police
2
0
L
18.11.17
H2H
Police
URA
2
1
W
09.05.17
H2H
Police
URA
1
3
L
Last matches: Police
19.05.26
Pre
Police
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
0
0
D
29.04.26
Pre
Police
UPDF
2
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Police
NEC
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Police
SC Villa
1
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Police
BUL
0
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Police
Lugazi
2
1
W
21.01.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
2
0
W
06.01.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
2
0
W
03.12.25
Pre
Police
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
27.11.25
Pre
Police
Kitara
1
2
L
29.10.25
Pre
Police
Maroons
2
1
W
02.10.25
Pre
Police
Express
2
1
W
26.09.25
Pre
Police
Mbarara City
1
1
D
H2H at home: Police
21.04.26
H2H
Police
URA
2
1
W
25.04.25
H2H
Police
URA
2
0
W
22.04.22
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
L
09.03.21
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
L
05.11.19
H2H
Police
URA
0
1
L
01.05.19
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
L
18.11.17
H2H
Police
URA
2
1
W
09.05.17
H2H
Police
URA
1
3
L
Last matches: URA
22.05.26
Pre
URA
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
URA
Vipers
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
URA
UPDF
0
0
D
09.04.26
Pre
URA
NEC
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
URA
Express
1
3
L
07.03.26
Pre
URA
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
URA
Kitara
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
URA
Calvary
0
0
D
17.12.25
Pre
URA
Mbarara City
0
1
L
11.12.25
Pre
URA
SC Villa
0
3
L
21.11.25
Pre
URA
KCCA
1
2
L
05.11.25
Pre
URA
Maroons
0
0
D
22.10.25
Pre
URA
Lugazi
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pre
URA
BUL
0
0
D
H2H away: URA
21.04.26
H2H
Police
URA
2
1
L
25.04.25
H2H
Police
URA
2
0
L
22.04.22
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
W
09.03.21
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
W
05.11.19
H2H
Police
URA
0
1
W
01.05.19
H2H
Police
URA
0
2
W
18.11.17
H2H
Police
URA
2
1
L
09.05.17
H2H
Police
URA
1
3
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11
URA Away
30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League