POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
18.04.2026 18:15
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Referee: P. Gryckiewicz
Pogon Szczecin
Match Timeline
Lech Poznan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Pablo Rodríguez
Lech Poznan
35'
A. Kozubal
Lech Poznan
🟨
45'
Kellyn Acosta
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
46'
P. Rodriguez ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🔄
53'
K. Grosicki ↔ K. Angielski
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
53'
D. Loncar ↔ M. Agger
Pogon Szczecin
61'
L. Palma · Assist: A. Gholizadeh
Lech Poznan
🔄
63'
P. Walemark ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
🔄
63'
L. Palma ↔ T. Ouma
Lech Poznan
🔄
68'
J. Bieganski ↔ J. Czaplinski
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
71'
M. Ishak ↔ Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
🟨
78'
Natan Ława
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
79'
Robert Gumny
Lech Poznan
🔄
79'
A. Gholizadeh ↔ T. Ismaheel
Lech Poznan
80'
P. Mukairu · Assist: K. Acosta
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
84'
Leo Borges ↔ L. Koutris
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
85'
N. Lawa ↔ M. Ndiaye
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
86'
Taofeek Ismaheel
Lech Poznan
🟨
90+5'
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Pogon Szczecin

Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Pogon Szczecin Win 29.6%
Draw 14.5%
Lech Poznan Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pogon Szczecin1.39
Lech Poznan1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
WWDLW
38 GF / 42 GA
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
WLDWL
80 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
16
BTTS Yes
31
15
Over 2.5
29
4.68
Shots on Goal
5.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 28 matches
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 44 matches
Pogon Szczecin Statistic Lech Poznan
11 Wins 21
4 Draws 12
13 Losses 11
38 Goals For 80
42 Goals Against 63
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
16 BTTS Yes 31
23 Over 1.5 35
15 Over 2.5 29
6 Over 3.5 19
5 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 4
4.68 Shots On Goal 5.32
15.36 Total Shots 14.86
5.39 Corners 4.89
52% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lech Poznan's more proactive style and Pogon Szczecin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Pogon Szczecin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Lech Poznan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 46 points while Pogon Szczecin sit 13 on 37, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lech Poznan. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Pogon Szczecin expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lech Poznan in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lech Poznan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

Pogon Szczecin approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 37 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats with a 36:42 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Paul Mukairu (7 goals), K. Grosicki (6 goals), F. Ulvestad (5 goals), with creative support from K. Grosicki (5 assists), F. Ulvestad (3 assists), Sam Greenwood (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Lech Poznan come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 46 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 49:40 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Ishak (13 goals), Luis Palma (6 goals), Ali Gholizadeh (5 goals), with creative support from Luis Palma (5 assists), F. Jagiello (4 assists), M. Ishak (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Pogon Szczecin won 4 times, Lech Poznan won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Pogon Szczecin's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Pogon Szczecin 4-2-3-1 / Lech Poznan 4-4-2
H2H summary: Pogon Szczecin wins 4, draws 5, Lech Poznan wins 6

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation