POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Referee: P. Gryckiewicz
Pogon Szczecin
Match Timeline
Lech Poznan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Pablo Rodríguez
Lech Poznan
35'
A. Kozubal
Lech Poznan
🟨
45'
Kellyn Acosta
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
46'
P. Rodriguez ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🔄
53'
K. Grosicki ↔ K. Angielski
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
53'
D. Loncar ↔ M. Agger
Pogon Szczecin
61'
L. Palma · Assist: A. Gholizadeh
Lech Poznan
🔄
63'
P. Walemark ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
🔄
63'
L. Palma ↔ T. Ouma
Lech Poznan
🔄
68'
J. Bieganski ↔ J. Czaplinski
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
71'
M. Ishak ↔ Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
🟨
78'
Natan Ława
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
79'
Robert Gumny
Lech Poznan
🔄
79'
A. Gholizadeh ↔ T. Ismaheel
Lech Poznan
80'
P. Mukairu · Assist: K. Acosta
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
84'
Leo Borges ↔ L. Koutris
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
85'
N. Lawa ↔ M. Ndiaye
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
86'
Taofeek Ismaheel
Lech Poznan
🟨
90+5'
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Pogon Szczecin

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Pogon Szczecin Win 29.6%
Draw 14.5%
Lech Poznan Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pogon Szczecin1.39
Lech Poznan1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
WWDLW
38 GF / 42 GA
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
WLDWL
80 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
16
BTTS Yes
31
15
Over 2.5
29
4.68
Shots on Goal
5.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 28 matches
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 44 matches
Pogon Szczecin Statistic Lech Poznan
11 Wins 21
4 Draws 12
13 Losses 11
38 Goals For 80
42 Goals Against 63
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
16 BTTS Yes 31
23 Over 1.5 35
15 Over 2.5 29
6 Over 3.5 19
5 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 4
4.68 Shots On Goal 5.32
15.36 Total Shots 14.86
5.39 Corners 4.89
52% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lech Poznan's more proactive style and Pogon Szczecin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Pogon Szczecin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Lech Poznan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 46 points while Pogon Szczecin sit 13 on 37, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lech Poznan. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Pogon Szczecin expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lech Poznan in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lech Poznan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

Pogon Szczecin approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 37 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats with a 36:42 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Paul Mukairu (7 goals), K. Grosicki (6 goals), F. Ulvestad (5 goals), with creative support from K. Grosicki (5 assists), F. Ulvestad (3 assists), Sam Greenwood (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Lech Poznan come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 46 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 49:40 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Ishak (13 goals), Luis Palma (6 goals), Ali Gholizadeh (5 goals), with creative support from Luis Palma (5 assists), F. Jagiello (4 assists), M. Ishak (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Pogon Szczecin won 4 times, Lech Poznan won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Pogon Szczecin's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Pogon Szczecin 4-2-3-1 / Lech Poznan 4-4-2
H2H summary: Pogon Szczecin wins 4, draws 5, Lech Poznan wins 6
Stats
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
11
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 6
13 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 5
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Goal 11
2 Shots off Goal 8
1 Blocked Shots 3
5 Shots insidebox 14
1 Shots outsidebox 8
9 Goalkeeper Saves 1
426 Total passes 342
343 Passes accurate 265
0.50 expected_goals 3.37
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Pogon Szczecin
Formation
Lech Poznan
V. Cojocaru
V. Cojocaru
D. Keramitsis
D. Keramitsis
D. Loncar
D. Loncar
A. Szalai
A. Szalai
Leo Borges
Leo Borges
K. Acosta
🎯
K. Acosta
J. Bieganski
J. Bieganski
F. Ulvestad
F. Ulvestad
N. Lawa
N. Lawa
P. Mukairu
P. Mukairu
K. Grosicki
K. Grosicki
P. Andreev
P. Andreev
J. Pereira
J. Pereira
R. Gumny
R. Gumny
W. Monka
W. Monka
M. Gurgul
M. Gurgul
A. Gholizadeh
🎯
A. Gholizadeh
A. Kozubal
A. Kozubal
P. Rodriguez
P. Rodriguez
L. Palma
L. Palma
P. Walemark
P. Walemark
M. Ishak
M. Ishak
Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2
Starting XI
77
V. Cojocaru
G
13
D. Keramitsis
🟨 90+5'
D
22
D. Loncar
↓ 53'
D
41
A. Szalai
D
4
Leo Borges
↓ 84'
D
3
K. Acosta
🎯 80' 🟨 45'
M
6
J. Bieganski
↓ 68'
M
8
F. Ulvestad
M
47
N. Lawa
↓ 85' 🟨 78'
M
18
P. Mukairu
⚽ 80'
F
11
K. Grosicki
↓ 53'
F
Substitutes
31
K. Kaminski
G
24
K. Angielski
↑ 53'
F
32
L. Koutris
↑ 84'
D
7
M. Juwara
F
61
K. Smolinski
M
25
M. Agger
↑ 53'
F
19
M. Ndiaye
↑ 85'
M
10
F. Cuic
F
30
J. Czaplinski
↑ 68'
M
Lech Poznan 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
P. Andreev
G
2
J. Pereira
D
20
R. Gumny
🟨 79'
D
27
W. Monka
D
15
M. Gurgul
D
8
A. Gholizadeh
🎯 61' ↓ 79'
M
43
A. Kozubal
⚽ 35'
M
99
P. Rodriguez
↓ 46' 🟨 33'
M
77
L. Palma
⚽ 61' ↓ 63'
M
10
P. Walemark
↓ 63'
F
9
M. Ishak
↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
33
M. Pruchniewski
G
14
L. Bengtsson
M
4
J. Moutinho
D
7
Y. Agnero
↑ 71'
F
44
T. Gmur
M
90
H. Janyszka
D
24
F. Jagiello
↑ 46'
M
11
D. Hakans
↑ 63'
M
88
T. Ismaheel
↑ 79' 🟨 86'
M
6
T. Ouma
↑ 63'
M
Last matches: Pogon Szczecin
23.05.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
1
1
D
15.05.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
1
0
W
09.05.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Jagiellonia
2
3
L
03.05.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Wisla Plock
3
0
W
25.04.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow
1
1
D
13.04.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
2
0
W
06.04.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
0
2
L
21.03.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Lechia Gdansk
1
2
L
16.03.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
2
1
W
08.03.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Raków Częstochowa
0
2
L
28.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź
1
0
W
21.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Gornik Zabrze
1
0
W
15.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Arka Gdynia
1
0
W
08.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Nieciecza
1
1
D
01.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Motor Lublin
1
2
L
18.01.26
Fri
Pogon Szczecin
FK Jablonec
0
0
D
17.01.26
Fri
Pogon Szczecin
Turan
3
2
W
10.01.26
Fri
Pogon Szczecin
Świt Skolwin
3
1
W
06.12.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
2
2
D
29.11.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
0
2
L
Last matches: Lech Poznan
23.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Wisla Plock
2
2
D
16.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Radomiak Radom
3
1
W
08.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
02.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Motor Lublin
1
0
W
26.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
4
0
W
12.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice
3
3
D
04.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
0
0
D
22.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Nieciecza
4
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
1
W
15.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
3
L
07.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź
1
2
L
01.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Raków Częstochowa
4
3
W
26.02.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
KuPS
1
0
W
22.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Korona Kielce
2
1
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
KuPS
2
0
W
15.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Piast Gliwice
3
0
W
07.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
1
0
W
03.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Piast Gliwice
0
1
L
31.01.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Lechia Gdansk
1
3
L
H2H: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan
18.04.26
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
1
2
L
19.10.25
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
2
2
D
01.03.25
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
3
L
25.08.24
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
2
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
1
0
L
27.02.24
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
W
01.10.23
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
5
0
W
02.04.23
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
2
2
D
11.09.22
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
2
2
D
23.06.22
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
W
26.02.22
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
3
L
28.08.21
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
1
1
D
07.03.21
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
16.12.20
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
0
4
W
24.06.20
H2H
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
0
0
D
Last matches: Pogon Szczecin
23.05.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
1
1
D
03.05.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Wisla Plock
3
0
W
06.04.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
0
2
L
16.03.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
2
1
W
28.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź
1
0
W
15.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Arka Gdynia
1
0
W
08.02.26
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Nieciecza
1
1
D
17.01.26
Fri
Pogon Szczecin
Turan
3
2
W
10.01.26
Fri
Pogon Szczecin
Świt Skolwin
3
1
W
06.12.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
2
2
D
24.11.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
5
1
W
09.11.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Jagiellonia
1
2
L
25.10.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow
2
1
W
03.10.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
2
1
W
21.09.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Lechia Gdansk
3
4
L
31.08.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Raków Częstochowa
2
0
W
17.08.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Gornik Zabrze
0
3
L
26.07.25
Eks
Pogon Szczecin
Motor Lublin
4
1
W
H2H at home: Pogon Szczecin
18.04.26
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
1
2
L
01.03.25
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
3
L
01.10.23
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
5
0
W
11.09.22
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
2
2
D
26.02.22
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
3
L
07.03.21
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
Last matches: Lech Poznan
16.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Radomiak Radom
3
1
W
02.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Motor Lublin
1
0
W
04.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
0
0
D
19.03.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
1
W
15.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
1
0
W
07.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź
1
2
L
22.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Korona Kielce
2
1
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
KuPS
2
0
W
07.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
1
0
W
03.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Piast Gliwice
0
1
L
18.12.25
UEF
Lech Poznan
Sigma Olomouc
2
1
W
07.12.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Cracovia Krakow
2
2
D
30.11.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Wisla Plock
0
0
D
09.11.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
3
L
06.11.25
UEF
Lech Poznan
Rayo Vallecano
2
3
L
26.10.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
0
0
D
23.10.25
UEF
Lech Poznan
Lincoln Red Imps FC
1
2
L
05.10.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice
1
0
W
24.09.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Raków Częstochowa
2
2
D
20.09.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Nieciecza
2
0
W
H2H away: Lech Poznan
18.04.26
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
1
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
3
W
01.10.23
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
5
0
L
11.09.22
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
2
2
D
26.02.22
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
3
W
07.03.21
H2H
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
0
1
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W