ITALY SERIE A
01.05.2026 18:45
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Referee: D. Doveri
Pisa
Match Timeline
Lecce
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
43'
Antonio Caracciolo
Pisa
52'
L. Banda · Assist: W. Cheddira
Lecce
56'
M. Leris
Pisa
🟨
61'
Michel Aebischer
Pisa
🔄
64'
S. Angori ↔ I. Toure
Pisa
65'
W. Cheddira · Assist: S. Pierotti
Lecce
🟨
66'
Walid Cheddira
Lecce
🔄
70'
F. Stojilkovic ↔ H. Meister
Pisa
🔄
70'
I. Vural ↔ G. Piccinini
Pisa
🔄
71'
W. Cheddira ↔ F. Camarda
Lecce
🔄
71'
L. Banda ↔ G. Jean
Lecce
🔄
81'
R. Bozhinov ↔ J. Cuadrado
Pisa
🔄
81'
E. Akinsanmiro ↔ R. Durosinmi
Pisa
🟨
82'
Rafiu Durosinmi
Pisa
🟨
88'
Santiago Pierotti
Lecce
🟨
90'
Henrik Wendel Meister
Pisa
🔄
90+3'
S. Pierotti ↔ O. Gandelman
Lecce

Pisa vs Lecce Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 62.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
63.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
62.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Pisa Win 35.9%
Draw 19.2%
Lecce Win 44.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pisa0.95
Lecce1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pisa Pisa
WWDLW
24 GF / 62 GA
Lecce Lecce
WLDWL
24 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
14
BTTS Yes
12
16
Over 2.5
13
2.69
Shots on Goal
2.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pisa Pisa 36 matches
Lecce Lecce 36 matches
Pisa Statistic Lecce
2 Wins 8
13 Draws 8
21 Losses 20
24 Goals For 24
62 Goals Against 49
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
14 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 23
16 Over 2.5 13
12 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 10
21 Failed To Score 19
2.69 Shots On Goal 2.33
9.56 Total Shots 9.64
3.58 Corners 4.36
40.8% Ball Possession 41.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Pisa expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Lecce in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lecce having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lecce.

Pisa Analysis

Pisa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 18 points from 34 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 12 draws, and 20 losses, together with goals at 24:61, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through S. Moreo (6 goals), M. Nzola (4 goals), Antonio Caracciolo (3 goals), with creative support from M. Leris (3 assists), Matteo Tramoni (2 assists), S. Angori (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Denoon, M. Marin, M. Tramoni unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Lecce Analysis

With 29 points from 34 games and a place of 17, Lecce still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 22:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lameck Banda (3 goals), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals), Nikola Štulić (3 goals), with creative support from Antonino Gallo (4 assists), Lameck Banda (3 assists), M. Berisha (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without S. Fofana, K. Gaspar, M. Berisha, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Pisa won 2 times, Lecce won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Pisa's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.8%)
Predicted formations: Pisa 3-5-2 / Lecce 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Pisa 4, Lecce 4
H2H summary: Pisa wins 2, draws 0, Lecce wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17
Lecce Away
38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20
Pisa Home
38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B