🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Subaru Park

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds 2.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.33
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.7%
2.53
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.33
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.38
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 33.4%
Draw 2.9%
Inter Miami Win 63.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.78
Inter Miami1.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
50 GF / 44 GA
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WLDWL
53 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
2.12
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
17
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
18
4.87
Shots on Goal
5.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 28 matches
Inter Miami Inter Miami 25 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic Inter Miami
9 Wins 13
6 Draws 8
13 Losses 4
50 Goals For 53
44 Goals Against 44
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.12
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
17 BTTS Yes 18
22 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 4
4.87 Shots On Goal 5.71
15.87 Total Shots 14.19
6.13 Corners 5.19
48.2% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Inter Miami's more proactive style and Philadelphia Union's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Inter Miami. Inter Miami look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Inter Miami carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 38 points while Philadelphia Union sit 13 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia Union sit 13 with 16 points after 18 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 25:33 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Milan Iloski (8 goals), Nathan Harriel (1 goals), Bruno Damiani (1 goals), with creative support from Frankie Westfield (3 assists), Nathan Harriel (1 assists), Bruno Damiani (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Inter Miami Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 38 points from 18 games, Inter Miami bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 45:32 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Lionel Messi (8 goals), Luis Suárez (8 goals), Germán Berterame (7 goals), with creative support from Lionel Messi (7 assists), Rodrigo De Paul (4 assists), Germán Berterame (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 4 times, Inter Miami won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:28 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (97.2%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / Inter Miami 4-4-2
Missing players: Philadelphia Union 3, Inter Miami 6
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 4, draws 3, Inter Miami wins 7
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
16.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
3
2
W
01.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders
1
0
W
22.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
Last matches: Inter Miami
16.08.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
1
4
L
01.08.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Columbus Crew
2
2
D
25.07.26
Maj
Inter Miami
CF Montreal
1
0
W
22.07.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
24.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
6
4
W
17.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
5
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Toronto FC
4
2
W
02.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
25.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New England Revolution
1
1
D
23.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Real Salt Lake
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
11.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New York Red Bulls
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Austin
2
2
D
22.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New York City FC
3
2
W
18.03.26
CON
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Charlotte
0
0
D
11.03.26
CON
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
0
0
D
07.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
DC United
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
4
2
W
H2H: Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami
24.05.26
H2H
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
6
4
L
24.05.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
3
3
D
29.03.25
H2H
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
2
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
3
1
L
15.06.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
2
L
15.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
4
L
24.06.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
1
W
05.03.23
H2H
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
2
0
L
14.07.22
H2H
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
1
2
W
18.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
0
0
D
25.07.21
H2H
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
25.04.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
2
L
27.09.20
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
3
0
W
15.07.20
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
2
1
W
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
01.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders
1
0
W
22.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
18.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
27.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
7
0
W
10.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
4
L
07.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
0
W
29.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Buducnost Podgorica
3
0
W
H2H at home: Philadelphia Union
24.05.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
3
3
D
15.06.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
2
L
15.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
4
L
24.06.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
1
W
18.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
0
0
D
25.04.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
2
L
27.09.20
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
3
0
W
15.07.20
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
2
1
W
Last matches: Inter Miami
16.08.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
1
4
L
25.07.26
Maj
Inter Miami
CF Montreal
1
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
5
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Toronto FC
4
2
W
23.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Real Salt Lake
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
22.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New York City FC
3
2
W
14.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Charlotte
0
0
D
11.03.26
CON
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
0
0
D
07.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
DC United
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
4
2
W
27.02.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
22.02.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Los Angeles FC
0
3
L
08.02.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Barcelona SC
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Atletico Nacional
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Alianza Lima
0
3
L
H2H away: Inter Miami
24.05.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
3
3
D
15.06.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
2
W
15.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
4
W
24.06.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
1
L
18.05.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
0
0
D
25.04.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
1
2
W
27.09.20
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
3
0
L
15.07.20
H2H
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
2
1
L
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.53
Draw 4.23
Home 2.49
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.04
Draw 2.74
Home 2.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.38
Over 2.75 1.52
Over 3.0 1.54
Over 3.25 1.74
Over 3.5 1.93
Over 3.75 2.14
Over 4.0 2.47
Over 4.5 3.00
Over 5.5 5.47
Under 1.5 7.11
Under 2.5 3.16
Under 2.75 2.55
Under 3.0 2.58
Under 3.25 2.19
Under 3.5 1.95
Under 3.75 1.77
Under 4.0 1.58
Under 4.5 1.41
Under 5.5 1.17
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 4.00
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.62
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.88
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.10
Over 2.5 1.36
Over 3.5 1.83
Over 4.5 3.00
Over 5.5 5.50
Over 6.5 11.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Over 8.5 41.00
Under 0.5 23.00
Under 1.5 7.00
Under 2.5 3.10
Under 3.5 1.83
Under 4.5 1.36
Under 5.5 1.14
Under 6.5 1.05
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 3.80
Home 2.43
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.48
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.95
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.38
Over 2.75 1.47
Over 3.0 1.58
Over 3.25 1.78
Over 3.5 1.98
Over 3.75 2.23
Over 4.0 2.65
Over 4.25 2.95
Over 4.5 3.30
Over 5.5 5.80
Over 6.5 10.50
Under 1.5 6.25
Under 2.5 2.90
Under 2.75 2.60
Under 3.0 2.30
Under 3.25 1.97
Under 3.5 1.78
Under 3.75 1.61
Under 4.0 1.44
Under 4.25 1.37
Under 4.5 1.32
Under 5.5 1.12
Under 6.5 1.02

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Philadelphia Union 3 missing
-
G. Martinez
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
P. Ndinga
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Lukic
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Inter Miami 6 missing
-
G. Berterame
Questionable Concussion
OUT
-
R. de Paul
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
Micael
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
S. Morales
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
T. Allende
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Silvetti
Questionable Shoulder Injury
OUT