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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
19.08.2026 23:30
Subaru Park
Referee: Filip Dujic, Canada
Philadelphia Union
Match Timeline
Inter Miami
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
I. Vassilev · Assist: F. Westfield
Philadelphia Union
⚽
21'
D. Pinter · Assist: L. Suarez
Inter Miami
⚽
26'
L. Messi · Assist: I. Fray
Inter Miami
🟨
43'
Kai Wagner
Philadelphia Union
🟨
50'
Sergio Reguilón
Inter Miami
🟨
55'
Ian Fray
Inter Miami
⚽
58'
N. Pierre · Assist: M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union
VAR
63'
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
🔄
68'
I. Vassilev ↔ Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
73'
S. Reguilon ↔ N. Allen
Inter Miami
🔄
73'
T. Segovia ↔ D. Ayala
Inter Miami
🔄
82'
J. Bueno ↔ A. Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
🔄
82'
B. Damiani ↔ E. Alladoh
Philadelphia Union
🟨
87'
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
🟨
90+13'
Quinn Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🟨
90+5'
Ezekiel Alladoh
Philadelphia Union
🟥
90+13'
Cavan Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🟥
90+13'
Yannick Bright
Inter Miami
🔄
90+9'
D. Pinter ↔ D. Ruiz
Inter Miami

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 33.4%
Draw 2.9%
Inter Miami Win 63.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.78
Inter Miami1.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
50 GF / 44 GA
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WLDWL
53 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
2.12
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
17
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
18
4.87
Shots on Goal
5.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 28 matches
Inter Miami Inter Miami 25 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic Inter Miami
9 Wins 13
6 Draws 8
13 Losses 4
50 Goals For 53
44 Goals Against 44
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.12
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
17 BTTS Yes 18
22 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 4
4.87 Shots On Goal 5.9
15.87 Total Shots 14.95
6.13 Corners 5.38
48.2% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Inter Miami's more proactive style and Philadelphia Union's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Inter Miami. Inter Miami look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Inter Miami carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 38 points while Philadelphia Union sit 13 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia Union sit 13 with 16 points after 18 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 25:33 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Milan Iloski (8 goals), Nathan Harriel (1 goals), Bruno Damiani (1 goals), with creative support from Frankie Westfield (3 assists), Nathan Harriel (1 assists), Bruno Damiani (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Inter Miami Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 38 points from 18 games, Inter Miami bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 45:32 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Lionel Messi (8 goals), Luis Suárez (8 goals), Germán Berterame (7 goals), with creative support from Lionel Messi (7 assists), Rodrigo De Paul (4 assists), Germán Berterame (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 4 times, Inter Miami won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:30 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (97.2%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / Inter Miami 4-4-2
Missing players: Philadelphia Union 3, Inter Miami 6
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 4, draws 4, Inter Miami wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 19 6 3 59:22 37 63
W W W D L
2 28 13 10 5 68:50 18 49
W L D D D
3 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
4 28 14 4 10 45:39 6 46
L L W W W
5 28 13 7 8 50:40 10 46
W L W D W
6 28 12 6 10 56:45 11 42
W W W W W
7 28 11 4 13 51:66 -15 37
W L L W W
8 28 10 6 12 38:52 -14 36
W L W W L
9 27 9 9 9 58:65 -7 36
W L D D L
10 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 27 6 12 9 34:46 -12 30
L D L D W
13 28 8 5 15 41:46 -5 29
L W W L L
14 28 7 6 15 33:48 -15 27
L D W D L
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)