🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
09.09.2026 23:45
Subaru Park
Referee: Joseph Dickerson, USA
Philadelphia Union
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
16'
O. Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🟨
40'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
43'
Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
45+2'
B. Damiani · Assist: C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
46'
Evander ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
K. Denkey ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
E. Echenique ↔ N. Hagglund
FC Cincinnati
49'
B. Damiani · Assist: Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
61'
B. Damiani · Assist: C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
62'
G. Valenzuela ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
66'
E. Alladoh ↔ M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union
🔄
66'
J. Lukic ↔ J. Bueno
Philadelphia Union
🔄
66'
Q. Sullivan ↔ I. Vassilev
Philadelphia Union
VAR
72'
B. Damiani
Philadelphia Union
🔄
75'
B. Damiani ↔ M. Jakupovic
Philadelphia Union
🔄
75'
C. Sullivan ↔ A. Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
🔄
75'
A. Jabbari ↔ S. Gidi
FC Cincinnati
VAR
81'
P. Bucha
FC Cincinnati
🟨
87'
T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
89'
M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63%
Odds 1.70
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.36
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63%
1.70
BTTS Yes
88%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.36
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.1%
1.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 63%
Draw 5.2%
FC Cincinnati Win 31.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.89
FC Cincinnati2.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
58 GF / 48 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
74 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
2.39
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
2
20
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
21
5.04
Shots on Goal
5.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 32 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 31 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic FC Cincinnati
11 Wins 13
8 Draws 9
13 Losses 9
58 Goals For 74
48 Goals Against 62
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 2.39
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 2
20 BTTS Yes 22
26 Over 1.5 28
19 Over 2.5 21
12 Over 3.5 18
8 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 3
5.04 Shots On Goal 5.81
15.85 Total Shots 13.27
6.07 Corners 4.38
47.7% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Cincinnati. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Philadelphia Union expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia Union are currently 12 in the standings with 24 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, while the 34:39 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Milan Iloski (9 goals), Bruno Damiani (3 goals), Cavan Sullivan (2 goals), with creative support from Frankie Westfield (3 assists), Bruno Damiani (2 assists), Cavan Sullivan (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 6 in the standings with 31 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 49:51 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 6 times, FC Cincinnati won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:26 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Philadelphia Union 2, FC Cincinnati 2
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 6, draws 2, FC Cincinnati wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
8 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
9 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)