ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Weston Homes Stadium
Referee: S. Copeland
Peterborough
Match Timeline
Burton Albion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Kgagelo Chauke
Burton Albion
44'
C. Webster · Assist: T. Shade
Burton Albion
🟨
51'
Matthew Garbett
Peterborough
🔄
58'
C. Hayes ↔ B. Shofowoke
Peterborough
60'
H. Leonard
Peterborough
🔄
71'
A. Cannon ↔ J. J. McKiernan
Burton Albion
🔄
76'
D. Kamara ↔ O. Aderoju
Peterborough
🔄
78'
J. Moon ↔ T. Vancooten
Burton Albion
🔄
78'
J. Armer ↔ T. Sibbick
Burton Albion
🔄
78'
T. Shade ↔ F. Tavares
Burton Albion
🔄
83'
M. Garbett ↔ B. Khela
Peterborough
🔄
83'
K. Lisbie ↔ D. Frith
Peterborough
🟨
90+8'
Bradley Collins
Burton Albion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 57.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
57.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Peterborough Win 61.1%
Draw 11.5%
Burton Albion Win 27.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Peterborough1.34
Burton Albion1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Peterborough Peterborough
WWDLW
62 GF / 62 GA
Burton Albion Burton Albion
WLDWL
60 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
24
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
25
4
Shots on Goal
3.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Peterborough Peterborough 44 matches
Burton Albion Burton Albion 47 matches
Peterborough Statistic Burton Albion
16 Wins 16
6 Draws 12
22 Losses 19
62 Goals For 60
62 Goals Against 58
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
24 BTTS Yes 20
34 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 25
10 Over 3.5 12
10 Clean Sheets 14
10 Failed To Score 17
4 Shots On Goal 3.51
11.48 Total Shots 11.09
4.2 Corners 5.32
54.1% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Peterborough's more proactive style and Burton Albion's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Burton Albion. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Peterborough have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Peterborough expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Burton Albion in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Burton Albion having the stronger overall control.

Peterborough Analysis

With 51 points from 42 games and a place of 16, Peterborough still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 15 wins, 6 draws, and 21 defeats with a 60:58 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on H. Leonard (13 goals), J. Morgan (12 goals), Kyrell Lisbie (11 goals), with creative support from Archie Collins (7 assists), Kyrell Lisbie (6 assists), H. Leonard (5 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Burton Albion Analysis

With 51 points from 43 games and a place of 18, Burton Albion still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 13 wins, 12 draws, and 18 defeats with a 46:56 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Beesley (13 goals), T. Shade (9 goals), C. Webster (5 goals), with creative support from K. Lofthouse (7 assists), J. Beesley (6 assists), George Evans (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Peterborough won 7 times, Burton Albion won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:18 from Peterborough's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Peterborough 4-2-3-1 / Burton Albion 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Peterborough wins 7, draws 6, Burton Albion wins 2
Stats
Peterborough Peterborough
Burton Albion Burton Albion
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
6
4 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 7
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 6
8 Shots insidebox 11
7 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
384 Total passes 264
264 Passes accurate 156
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Peterborough
Formation
Burton Albion
A. Bass
A. Bass
J. Dornelly
J. Dornelly
T. Lees
T. Lees
D. Okagbue
D. Okagbue
H. Mills
H. Mills
A. Collins
A. Collins
M. Garbett
M. Garbett
K. Lisbie
K. Lisbie
H. Leonard
H. Leonard
C. Hayes
C. Hayes
D. Kamara
D. Kamara
B. Collins
B. Collins
U. Godwin-Malife
U. Godwin-Malife
J. Moon
J. Moon
A. Hartridge
A. Hartridge
K. Lofthouse
K. Lofthouse
K. Chauke
K. Chauke
C. Webster
C. Webster
J. Armer
J. Armer
A. Cannon
A. Cannon
J. Beesley
J. Beesley
T. Shade
🎯
T. Shade
Peterborough 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Bass
G
33
J. Dornelly
D
12
T. Lees
D
26
D. Okagbue
D
23
H. Mills
D
4
A. Collins
M
28
M. Garbett
↓ 83' 🟨 51'
M
17
K. Lisbie
↓ 83'
M
27
H. Leonard
⚽ 60'
M
18
C. Hayes
↓ 58'
M
34
D. Kamara
↓ 76'
Substitutes
31
B. Smith
G
30
P. Kioso
D
8
B. Khela
↑ 83'
M
11
D. Frith
↑ 83'
F
39
O. Aderoju
↑ 76'
42
P. Sykut
M
36
B. Shofowoke
↑ 58'
F
Burton Albion 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
24
B. Collins
🟨 90+8'
G
2
U. Godwin-Malife
D
18
J. Moon
↓ 78'
D
16
A. Hartridge
D
15
K. Lofthouse
M
4
K. Chauke
🟨 14'
M
8
C. Webster
⚽ 44'
M
3
J. Armer
↓ 78'
M
42
A. Cannon
↓ 71'
F
9
J. Beesley
F
10
T. Shade
🎯 44' ↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
27
K. Dudek
G
5
T. Vancooten
↑ 78'
D
6
T. Sibbick
↑ 78'
D
22
J. Larsson
F
7
J. J. McKiernan
↑ 71'
M
11
F. Tavares
↑ 78'
F
41
S. Krubally
F
Last matches: Peterborough
25.07.26
Fri
Peterborough
Boston United
0
1
L
22.07.26
Fri
Peterborough
Peterborough Sports
1
0
W
21.07.26
Fri
Peterborough
Colchester
3
2
W
17.07.26
Fri
Peterborough
NEOM
0
0
D
02.05.26
Lea
Peterborough
Doncaster
1
3
L
28.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
25.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Stockport County
1
3
L
16.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Port Vale
1
3
L
11.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Blackpool
1
3
L
06.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Cardiff
1
1
D
03.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Luton
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lea
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lea
Peterborough
Rotherham
5
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Peterborough
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Northampton
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Exeter City
3
3
D
17.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Barnsley
1
2
L
14.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Bradford
0
2
L
10.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Wigan
6
1
W
Last matches: Burton Albion
22.07.26
Fri
Burton Albion
Birmingham
0
1
L
18.07.26
Fri
Burton Albion
Leicester
0
3
L
11.07.26
Fri
Burton Albion
Alfreton Town
0
0
D
02.05.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Leyton Orient
2
2
D
25.04.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Exeter City
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lea
Burton Albion
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
03.04.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Barnsley
1
1
D
28.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Blackpool
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Bradford
2
1
W
17.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Reading
1
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Northampton
2
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Stevenage
0
1
L
03.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Exeter City
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Wycombe
0
3
L
24.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Stockport County
3
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Luton
1
1
D
17.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Rotherham
1
0
W
14.02.26
FA
Burton Albion
West Ham
0
1
L
07.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Port Vale
2
2
D
H2H: Peterborough vs Burton Albion
19.04.26
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
1
D
18.10.25
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
0
1
W
01.01.25
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
2
2
D
04.12.24
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
0
1
L
09.03.24
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
1
3
W
25.11.23
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
4
0
W
14.03.23
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
2
5
W
08.10.22
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
1
D
06.03.21
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
2
1
L
27.10.20
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
2
2
D
08.09.20
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
3
3
D
29.02.20
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
1
1
D
23.11.19
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
0
W
04.05.19
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
3
1
W
27.10.18
H2H
Burton Albion
Peterborough
1
2
W
Last matches: Peterborough
17.07.26
Fri
Peterborough
NEOM
0
0
D
02.05.26
Lea
Peterborough
Doncaster
1
3
L
28.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
16.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Port Vale
1
3
L
06.04.26
Lea
Peterborough
Cardiff
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lea
Peterborough
Rotherham
5
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Exeter City
3
3
D
07.02.26
Lea
Peterborough
Wigan
6
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Peterborough
Huddersfield
2
3
L
17.01.26
Lea
Peterborough
Plymouth
0
1
L
10.01.26
Lea
Peterborough
Bolton
3
1
W
29.12.25
Lea
Peterborough
Reading
1
1
D
26.12.25
Lea
Peterborough
Leyton Orient
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lea
Peterborough
Northampton
2
1
W
06.12.25
FA
Peterborough
Barnsley
0
1
L
25.11.25
Lea
Peterborough
Stevenage
0
1
L
20.11.25
Lea
Peterborough
Stockport County
3
0
W
08.11.25
Lea
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
5
0
W
01.11.25
FA
Peterborough
Cardiff
1
0
W
25.10.25
Lea
Peterborough
Blackpool
1
2
L
H2H at home: Peterborough
19.04.26
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
1
D
04.12.24
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
0
1
L
25.11.23
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
4
0
W
08.10.22
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
1
D
27.10.20
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
2
2
D
08.09.20
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
3
3
D
23.11.19
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
0
W
04.05.19
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
3
1
W
Last matches: Burton Albion
11.07.26
Fri
Burton Albion
Alfreton Town
0
0
D
02.05.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Leyton Orient
2
2
D
06.04.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
28.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Blackpool
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Northampton
2
0
W
03.03.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Exeter City
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Wycombe
0
3
L
21.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Luton
1
1
D
07.02.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Port Vale
2
2
D
27.01.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Bolton
1
2
L
22.01.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Lincoln
1
2
L
10.01.26
FA
Burton Albion
Boreham Wood
5
0
W
04.01.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Plymouth
0
3
L
01.01.26
Lea
Burton Albion
Reading
0
2
L
20.12.25
Lea
Burton Albion
Stevenage
2
2
D
08.12.25
FA
Burton Albion
Brackley Town
3
1
W
02.12.25
Lea
Burton Albion
Wigan
0
1
L
08.11.25
Lea
Burton Albion
Bradford
2
1
W
04.11.25
Lea
Burton Albion
Rotherham
2
2
D
25.10.25
Lea
Burton Albion
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
H2H away: Burton Albion
19.04.26
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
1
D
04.12.24
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
0
1
W
25.11.23
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
4
0
L
08.10.22
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
1
D
27.10.20
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
2
2
D
08.09.20
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
3
3
D
23.11.19
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
1
0
L
04.05.19
H2H
Peterborough
Burton Albion
3
1
L

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two