Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
100%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
69.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
56.8%
|
- |
Penarol
Juventud
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Penarol
13 matches
Juventud
17 matches
| Penarol | Statistic | Juventud |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Draws | 3 |
| 4 | Losses | 10 |
| 19 | Goals For | 18 |
| 13 | Goals Against | 25 |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.06 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 10 |
| 11 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 5.5 | Shots On Goal | 4.33 |
| 12.5 | Total Shots | 13.5 |
| 2.5 | Corners | 4.33 |
| 48.5% | Ball Possession | 51% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Penarol's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Juventud arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Penarol expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Juventud in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Penarol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 22 points compared to Juventud in 15 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Juventud.
Penarol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 22 points after 11 matches. With 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Arezo (6 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), M. Olivera (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Juventud sit 15 with 7 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 10:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Mimbacas (5 goals), G. Gomez (2 goals), Alejo Cruz (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 9 times, Juventud won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:7 from Penarol's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.
Lineups
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Danubio
Juventud
Danubio
Juventud
Club Nacional
Juventud
Wanderers
Juventud
Progreso
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Wanderers
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
Progreso
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Boston River
Juventud
Cerro
Juventud
Albion FC
Juventud
Danubio
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
Juventud
Club Nacional
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
Club Guarani
Juventud
Central Espanol
Juventud
Club Guarani
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Danubio
Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
Atletico Torque
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Danubio
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Plaza Colonia
Penarol
CA River Plate
Penarol
Club Nacional
Juventud
Danubio
Juventud
Club Nacional
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Cerro
Juventud
Danubio
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
Club Guarani
Juventud
Atletico Torque
Juventud
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Boston River
Juventud
Penarol
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Wanderers
Juventud
Danubio
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 35:20 | 15 | 39 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 25:15 | 10 | 37 |
D
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 |
Penarol
Home
|
19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 28:18 | 10 | 36 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:20 | 9 | 32 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31:26 | 5 | 31 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 2 | 31 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29:24 | 5 | 29 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22:24 | -2 | 26 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22:20 | 2 | 25 |
D
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21:20 | 1 | 24 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 15:16 | -1 | 23 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19:26 | -7 | 21 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19:26 | -7 | 19 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 |
Juventud
Away
|
18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 18 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
| 15 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16:30 | -14 | 13 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10:31 | -21 | 13 |
L
L
W
L
L
|