URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Campeón del Siglo
Referee: J. Feres
Penarol
Match Timeline
Juventud
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
8'
M. Olivera ↔ Jesus Trindade
Penarol
🟨
13'
Leandro Umpierrez
Penarol
🟨
18'
Juan Boselli
Juventud
🟨
25'
David Morosini
Juventud
🟨
37'
Lucas Ferreira
Penarol
🟨
42'
Emanuel Cecchini
Juventud
45'
R. Rabino
Juventud
53'
A. Hernandez
Penarol
🔄
56'
L. Angulo ↔ F. Batista
Penarol
🔄
59'
L. Roldan ↔ R. Peralta
Juventud
🔄
66'
P. Lago ↔ J. Boselli
Juventud
🟨
70'
Washington Aguerre
Penarol
🟨
74'
Renzo Rabino
Juventud
🔄
75'
E. Darias ↔ G. Togni
Penarol
🔄
75'
A. Hernandez ↔ F. Gonzalez
Penarol
🟨
76'
Eric Remedi
Penarol
78'
F. Mimbacas
Juventud
82'
L. Umpierrez
Penarol
🟨
83'
Facundo Perez
Juventud
🟨
85'
Nicolás Fernández
Penarol
🔄
86'
F. Perez ↔ M. Izaguirre
Juventud
🔄
86'
A. Cruz ↔ G. Pereiro
Juventud
🔄
86'
F. Mimbacas ↔ M. Perez
Juventud

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Penarol Win 100%
Draw 0%
Juventud Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Penarol1.46
Juventud1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Penarol Penarol
WWDLW
19 GF / 13 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
18 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
9
5.5
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Penarol Penarol 13 matches
Juventud Juventud 17 matches
Penarol Statistic Juventud
7 Wins 4
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 10
19 Goals For 18
13 Goals Against 25
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
8 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 6
5.5 Shots On Goal 4.33
12.5 Total Shots 13.5
2.5 Corners 4.33
48.5% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Penarol's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Juventud arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Penarol expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Juventud in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Penarol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 22 points compared to Juventud in 15 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Juventud.

Penarol Analysis

Penarol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 22 points after 11 matches. With 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Arezo (6 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), M. Olivera (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Juventud Analysis

Juventud sit 15 with 7 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 10:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Mimbacas (5 goals), G. Gomez (2 goals), Alejo Cruz (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 9 times, Juventud won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:7 from Penarol's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Penarol 4-2-3-1 / Juventud 4-3-3
H2H summary: Penarol wins 9, draws 5, Juventud wins 1

Lineups

Penarol
Formation
Juventud
W. Aguerre
W. Aguerre
F. Escobar
F. Escobar
M. Lemos
M. Lemos
L. Ferreira
L. Ferreira
M. Olivera
M. Olivera
E. Remedi
E. Remedi
N. Fernandez
N. Fernandez
E. Darias
E. Darias
L. Umpierrez
L. Umpierrez
L. Angulo
L. Angulo
A. Hernandez
A. Hernandez
S. Sosa
S. Sosa
D. Morosini
D. Morosini
P. Pernicone
P. Pernicone
E. Mas
E. Mas
R. Rabino
R. Rabino
E. Cecchini
E. Cecchini
F. Perez
F. Perez
L. Roldan
L. Roldan
P. Lago
P. Lago
F. Mimbacas
F. Mimbacas
A. Cruz
A. Cruz
Penarol 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
29
W. Aguerre
🟨 70'
G
2
F. Escobar
D
3
M. Lemos
D
6
L. Ferreira
🟨 37'
D
15
M. Olivera
↓ 8'
D
5
E. Remedi
🟨 76'
M
8
N. Fernandez
🟨 85'
M
13
E. Darias
↓ 75'
M
32
L. Umpierrez
⚽ 82' 🟨 13'
M
77
L. Angulo
↓ 56'
F
11
A. Hernandez
⚽ 53' ↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Britos
G
14
K. Rodriguez
D
25
M. Gonzalez
D
27
Lucas Hernandez
D
93
D. Laxalt
M
21
Jesus Trindade
↑ 8'
M
23
G. Togni
↑ 75'
M
30
S. Muhlethaler
M
80
F. Gonzalez
↑ 75'
F
9
F. Batista
↑ 56'
F
Juventud 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
S. Sosa
G
5
D. Morosini
🟨 25'
D
2
P. Pernicone
D
23
E. Mas
D
16
R. Rabino
⚽ 45' 🟨 74'
D
19
E. Cecchini
🟨 42'
M
21
F. Perez
↓ 86' 🟨 83'
M
14
L. Roldan
↓ 59'
M
11
P. Lago
↓ 66'
M
80
F. Mimbacas
⚽ 78' ↓ 86'
F
15
A. Cruz
↓ 86'
M
Substitutes
12
N. Rossi
G
28
F. Risso
D
32
V. Barrios
D
37
R. Peralta
↑ 59'
M
8
M. Izaguirre
↑ 86'
M
30
G. Gomez
M
26
G. Pereiro
↑ 86'
F
27
J. Boselli
↑ 66' 🟨 18'
M
90
S. Guerrero
F
9
M. Perez
↑ 86'
F
Last matches: Penarol
07.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
1
0
W
01.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.05.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
01.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
0
1
L
17.04.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
10.04.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Progreso
2
0
W
29.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Boston River
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Albion FC
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Danubio
1
1
D
Last matches: Juventud
05.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
31.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
5
L
16.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Central Espanol
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
0
0
D
H2H: Penarol vs Juventud
20.04.26
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
2
2
D
21.09.25
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
27.03.25
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
0
2
W
21.09.19
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
1
1
D
18.08.19
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
0
0
D
03.03.19
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
1
W
11.11.17
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
08.04.17
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
0
2
W
25.09.16
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
1
0
L
04.06.16
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
1
1
D
06.12.15
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
22.02.15
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
1
W
24.08.14
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
0
1
W
03.05.14
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
0
W
30.11.13
H2H
Juventud
Penarol
0
0
D
Last matches: Penarol
01.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.05.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
0
1
L
22.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
17.04.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
29.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
3
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Danubio
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pri
Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Penarol
Atletico Torque
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Club Nacional
2
2
D
02.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
19.10.25
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
3
0
W
05.10.25
Pri
Penarol
Danubio
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
06.09.25
Pri
Penarol
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Penarol
CA River Plate
2
0
W
09.08.25
Pri
Penarol
Club Nacional
3
0
W
H2H at home: Penarol
20.04.26
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
2
2
D
21.09.25
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
18.08.19
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
0
0
D
03.03.19
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
1
W
11.11.17
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
06.12.15
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
W
22.02.15
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
1
W
03.05.14
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
0
W
Last matches: Juventud
05.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
17.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
13.02.26
CON
Juventud
Universidad Catolica
4
3
W
01.11.25
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
20.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
0
1
L
05.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
22.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
1
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
2
L
H2H away: Juventud
20.04.26
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
2
2
D
21.09.25
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
L
18.08.19
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
0
0
D
03.03.19
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
1
L
11.11.17
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
L
06.12.15
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
1
0
L
22.02.15
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
1
L
03.05.14
H2H
Penarol
Juventud
4
0
L

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 12 3 4 35:20 15 39
W W D W W
2 19 10 7 2 25:15 10 37
D D D W L
3 19 11 3 5 28:18 10 36
W L W W W
4 19 9 5 5 29:20 9 32
W L L D W
5 19 10 1 8 31:26 5 31
W L W W W
6 19 9 4 6 27:25 2 31
D W L W W
7 19 8 5 6 29:24 5 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
D W D D W
9 19 6 7 6 22:20 2 25
D W D L L
10 19 7 3 9 21:20 1 24
D W W L L
11 19 5 8 6 15:16 -1 23
D D L L L
12 19 6 3 10 19:26 -7 21
D L L W L
13 18 4 7 7 19:26 -7 19
D L L L L
14 18 5 3 10 22:29 -7 18
L L W W W
15 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
L W L L L
16 19 3 4 12 10:31 -21 13
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)