20.04.2026 23:30
Estadio Campeón del Siglo
Referee: J. Feres
Penarol
Match Timeline
Juventud
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
8'
M. Olivera ↔ Jesus Trindade
Penarol
🟨
13'
Leandro Umpierrez
Penarol
🟨
18'
Juan Boselli
Juventud
🟨
25'
David Morosini
Juventud
🟨
37'
Lucas Ferreira
Penarol
🟨
42'
Emanuel Cecchini
Juventud
⚽
45'
R. Rabino
Juventud
⚽
53'
A. Hernandez
Penarol
🔄
56'
L. Angulo ↔ F. Batista
Penarol
🔄
59'
L. Roldan ↔ R. Peralta
Juventud
🔄
66'
P. Lago ↔ J. Boselli
Juventud
🟨
70'
Washington Aguerre
Penarol
🟨
74'
Renzo Rabino
Juventud
🔄
75'
E. Darias ↔ G. Togni
Penarol
🔄
75'
A. Hernandez ↔ F. Gonzalez
Penarol
🟨
76'
Eric Remedi
Penarol
⚽
78'
F. Mimbacas
Juventud
⚽
82'
L. Umpierrez
Penarol
🟨
83'
Facundo Perez
Juventud
🟨
85'
Nicolás Fernández
Penarol
🔄
86'
F. Perez ↔ M. Izaguirre
Juventud
🔄
86'
A. Cruz ↔ G. Pereiro
Juventud
🔄
86'
F. Mimbacas ↔ M. Perez
Juventud

Penarol vs Juventud Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Penarol Win 100%
Draw 0%
Juventud Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Penarol1.46
Juventud1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Penarol Penarol
WWDLW
19 GF / 13 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
18 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
9
5.5
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Penarol Penarol 13 matches
Juventud Juventud 17 matches
Penarol Statistic Juventud
7 Wins 4
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 10
19 Goals For 18
13 Goals Against 25
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
8 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 6
5.5 Shots On Goal 4.33
12.5 Total Shots 13.5
2.5 Corners 4.33
48.5% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Penarol's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Juventud arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Penarol expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Juventud in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Penarol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 22 points compared to Juventud in 15 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Juventud.

Penarol Analysis

Penarol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 22 points after 11 matches. With 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Arezo (6 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), M. Olivera (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Juventud Analysis

Juventud sit 15 with 7 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 10:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Mimbacas (5 goals), G. Gomez (2 goals), Alejo Cruz (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 9 times, Juventud won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:7 from Penarol's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Penarol 4-2-3-1 / Juventud 4-3-3
H2H summary: Penarol wins 9, draws 5, Juventud wins 1

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 5 6 48:24 24 58
W W W W L
2 30 16 7 7 46:27 19 55
W W L W L
3 29 16 5 8 51:34 17 53
L W W W W
4 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
L D W L W
5 30 15 4 11 45:38 7 49
W W D D W
6 30 12 10 8 39:28 11 46
W D L W D
7 29 12 8 9 36:35 1 44
D D L W L
8 30 10 8 12 32:39 -7 38
L L D D L
9 30 9 9 12 35:39 -4 36
D W D D W
10 29 9 7 13 37:38 -1 34
L L L L L
11 30 8 9 13 28:34 -6 33
L L D L D
12 30 9 6 15 23:43 -20 33
D L W W D
13 29 7 11 11 25:33 -8 32
L W D L D
14 30 8 6 16 29:42 -13 30
L L L L D
15 30 8 4 18 25:43 -18 28
W W L W W
16 29 4 14 11 24:38 -14 26
D D L L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)