Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
73.6%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
47.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.4%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 11.5 Corners |
69.1%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Penarol
16 matches
Defensor Sporting
13 matches
| Penarol | Statistic | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Draws | 5 |
| 6 | Losses | 3 |
| 21 | Goals For | 11 |
| 18 | Goals Against | 8 |
| 1.31 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.85 |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.62 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 5 |
| 13 | Over 1.5 | 6 |
| 7 | Over 2.5 | 2 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 0 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 4.33 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 11.33 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 39.7% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Defensor Sporting. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Penarol expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Defensor Sporting in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Defensor Sporting having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Penarol have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.
Penarol sit 4 with 23 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 19:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Arezo (6 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), M. Olivera (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.
So far, Defensor Sporting have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 20 points from 13 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 11:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Montenegro (5 goals), A. Machado (2 goals), F. Castro (2 goals), with creative support from Brian Lozano (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 11 times, Defensor Sporting won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:11 from Penarol's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Lineups
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Danubio
Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
Atletico Torque
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Danubio
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Plaza Colonia
Penarol
CA River Plate
Penarol
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Miramar
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 35:20 | 15 | 39 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 25:15 | 10 | 37 |
D
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 |
Penarol
Home
|
19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 28:18 | 10 | 36 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:20 | 9 | 32 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31:26 | 5 | 31 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 2 | 31 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29:24 | 5 | 29 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22:24 | -2 | 26 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22:20 | 2 | 25 |
D
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21:20 | 1 | 24 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 |
Defensor Sporting
Away
|
19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 15:16 | -1 | 23 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
| 12 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19:26 | -7 | 21 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19:26 | -7 | 19 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 18 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 15 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16:30 | -14 | 13 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10:31 | -21 | 13 |
L
L
W
L
L
|