FRANCE › LIGUE 2
02.05.2026 18:00
FT
1 - 3
Nouste Camp
Referee: A. Taleb
PAU
Match Timeline
Nancy
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
26'
A. Bobichon
PAU
🟨
29'
Nehemiah Fernandez
Nancy
🔄
46'
A. Julloux ↔ M. Guendez
Nancy
⚽
50'
E. Mendy · Assist: T. Bouriaud
Nancy
🔄
56'
J. Anziani ↔ R. Touzghar
PAU
🟨
61'
Kyliane Dong
PAU
⚽
63'
N. Fernandez
Nancy
🔄
66'
K. Dong ↔ G. Versini
PAU
🔄
66'
E. Zuliani ↔ S. Basse
PAU
🔄
66'
S. Beusnard ↔ C. Fall
PAU
🔄
69'
Z. Fdaouch ↔ M. Carlier
Nancy
🔄
69'
T. Bouriaud ↔ J. Evans
Nancy
🔄
74'
A. Bobichon ↔ K. Gasnier
PAU
🟨
76'
Tom Pouilly
PAU
🟨
76'
Walid Bouabdelli
Nancy
🔄
80'
B. Bokangu ↔ N. Sissoko
Nancy
🔄
83'
F. Maouassa ↔ E. Tacafred
Nancy
⚽
90'
N. Saint-Ruf · Assist: M. Carlier
Nancy

PAU vs Nancy Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 20.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
20.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
PAU Win 56.5%
Draw 23.2%
Nancy Win 20.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
PAU1.4
Nancy1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
PAU PAU
WWDLW
46 GF / 55 GA
Nancy Nancy
WLDWL
39 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
17
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
18
3.79
Shots on Goal
2.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

PAU PAU 34 matches
Nancy Nancy 36 matches
PAU Statistic Nancy
13 Wins 9
9 Draws 12
12 Losses 15
46 Goals For 39
55 Goals Against 53
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
17 BTTS Yes 18
27 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 18
11 Over 3.5 10
11 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 14
3.79 Shots On Goal 2.88
11.76 Total Shots 10.85
4.79 Corners 4.44
49.8% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nancy. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with PAU expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Nancy in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nancy having the stronger overall control.

PAU Analysis

So far, PAU have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 45 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 44:54 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Arconte (13 goals), G. Versini (9 goals), A. Bobichon (5 goals), with creative support from A. Bobichon (4 assists), K. Dong (4 assists), Rayan Touzghar (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nancy Analysis

Nancy sit 15 with 31 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 29:49 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandon Bokangu (5 goals), Z. Fdaouch (5 goals), Nicolas Saint-Ruf (4 goals), with creative support from T. Bouriaud (3 assists), Brandon Bokangu (2 assists), Z. Fdaouch (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, PAU won 2 times, Nancy won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:11 from PAU's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (79.8%)
Predicted formations: PAU 5-3-2 / Nancy 4-4-2
H2H summary: PAU wins 2, draws 2, Nancy wins 3

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9
PAU Home
34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14
Nancy Away
34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation