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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
30.08.2026 18:30
Patronato
Match Timeline
Almagro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
J. Orlando · Assist: J. Orlando
Almagro
⚽
21'
V. L. Pereyra · Assist: V. L. Pereyra
Patronato
🟨
45+3'
F. De La Vega
Almagro
🔄
46'
V. L. Pereyra ↔ F. Meritello
Patronato
🔄
46'
G. Salega ↔ F. Moreyra
Patronato
🔄
46'
D. Diaz ↔ B. Bravo
Patronato
🔄
46'
J. Salas ↔ T. Attis
Patronato
🟨
47'
J. Bustos
Almagro
⚽
55'
J. Orlando
Almagro
🟨
59'
S. Piccioni
Patronato
🟨
61'
B. Cortes
Patronato
🟨
67'
T. Macies
Almagro
🔄
69'
J. Bustos ↔ J. Fernandes
Almagro
🔄
75'
F. Bustamante ↔ J. Vitale
Almagro
🔄
75'
F. De La Vega ↔ T. Dornell
Almagro
🔄
78'
F. Soldano ↔ R. Reynaga
Patronato
🟨
80'
B. Negro
Almagro
🟨
84'
R. Reynaga
Patronato
🔄
86'
N. Tolosa ↔ E. Silcan
Almagro
🔄
86'
J. Orlando ↔ C. Salto
Almagro

Patronato vs Almagro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
69.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Patronato Win 30.1%
Draw 26.1%
Almagro Win 43.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Patronato0.98
Almagro0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Patronato Patronato
WWDLW
23 GF / 29 GA
Almagro Almagro
WLDWL
21 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
10
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Patronato Patronato 26 matches
Almagro Almagro 26 matches
Patronato Statistic Almagro
5 Wins 8
13 Draws 7
8 Losses 11
23 Goals For 21
29 Goals Against 29
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
10 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Almagro having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Almagro.

Patronato Analysis

With 24 points from 24 games and a place of 17, Patronato still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats with a 18:26 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Almagro Analysis

Almagro sit 12 with 30 points after 25 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 21:29 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Patronato won 2 times, Almagro won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Patronato's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.9%)
H2H summary: Patronato wins 2, draws 1, Almagro wins 3

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 15 14 4 32:15 17 59
D D W D D
2 33 16 11 6 40:27 13 59
W W L W D
3 33 18 4 11 39:30 9 58
W W W D W
4 33 15 10 8 50:42 8 55
D L D D W
5 33 14 9 10 38:26 12 51
W D L W W
6 33 13 10 10 34:30 4 49
D L W L D
7 33 13 9 11 40:32 8 48
D W W D D
8 33 13 8 12 32:31 1 47
D W W L W
9 33 12 10 11 35:33 2 46
D L L W D
10 33 10 13 10 35:33 2 43
L W D L W
11 33 11 9 13 27:34 -7 42
L L L W L
12 33 11 8 14 30:39 -9 41
W W L L D
13 33 10 10 13 27:35 -8 40
W D L W L
14 33 10 9 14 30:28 2 39
L D W L W
15 33 7 16 10 29:32 -3 37
W L W D D
16 33 9 9 15 24:32 -8 36
L L W D L
17 33 9 6 18 25:35 -10 33
L W L W L
18 33 5 8 20 23:56 -33 23
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation