ITALY › SERIE A
10.05.2026 16:00
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Referee: D. Chiffi
Parma
Match Timeline
AS Roma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
D. Malen · Assist: P. Dybala
AS Roma
⚽
47'
G. Strefezza · Assist: H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Parma
🟨
48'
Gabriel Strefezza
Parma
🔄
53'
G. Strefezza ↔ M. Pellegrino
Parma
🔄
53'
M. Hermoso ↔ D. Ghilardi
AS Roma
🔄
58'
M. Soule ↔ N. Pisilli
AS Roma
🔄
59'
B. Cristante ↔ N. El Aynaoui
AS Roma
🟨
65'
Mariano Troilo
Parma
🔄
74'
E. Valeri ↔ F. Carboni
Parma
🔄
74'
E. Delprato ↔ S. Britschgi
Parma
🔄
75'
Z. Celik ↔ D. Rensch
AS Roma
🔄
75'
M. Kone ↔ L. Venturino
AS Roma
🟨
76'
Sascha Britschgi
Parma
🔄
79'
H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↔ N. Estevez
Parma
🔄
79'
N. Elphege ↔ P. Almqvist
Parma
⚽
87'
M. Keita · Assist: N. Estevez
Parma
🟨
90+9'
Sascha Britschgi
Parma
🟥
90+9'
Sascha Britschgi
Parma
VAR
90+8'
Devyne Rensch
AS Roma
⚽
90'
D. Rensch
AS Roma
⚽
90'
D. Malen
AS Roma

Parma vs AS Roma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Parma Win 44%
Draw 0%
AS Roma Win 56%
Expected Goals (xG)
Parma0.85
AS Roma1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Parma Parma
WWDLW
30 GF / 46 GA
AS Roma AS Roma
WLDWL
71 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
16
BTTS Yes
19
12
Over 2.5
19
3.03
Shots on Goal
4.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Parma Parma 38 matches
AS Roma AS Roma 46 matches
Parma Statistic AS Roma
11 Wins 25
13 Draws 6
14 Losses 15
30 Goals For 71
46 Goals Against 43
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
16 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 32
12 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 8
13 Clean Sheets 19
15 Failed To Score 8
3.03 Shots On Goal 4.59
10.97 Total Shots 13.24
4 Corners 5.09
44.2% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AS Roma's more proactive style and Parma's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. AS Roma carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 64 points while Parma sit 12 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AS Roma. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Parma expected to line up in 3-5-2 and AS Roma in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AS Roma having the stronger overall control.

Parma Analysis

Parma sit 12 with 42 points after 35 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 12 draws, and 13 losses, while the 25:42 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Pellegrino (8 goals), A. Bernabe (3 goals), Enrico Del Prato (2 goals), with creative support from A. Benedyczak (2 assists), G. Strefezza (2 assists), E. Valeri (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

AS Roma Analysis

AS Roma come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 64 points after 35 matches. The return of 20 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 52:29, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Malen (11 goals), M. Soule (6 goals), Wesley Franca (5 goals), with creative support from M. Soule (5 assists), D. Rensch (4 assists), M. Kone (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with E. Bove unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Parma won 2 times, AS Roma won 12 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:31 from Parma's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Parma 3-5-2 / AS Roma 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Parma 4, AS Roma 4
H2H summary: Parma wins 2, draws 1, AS Roma wins 12

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13
Parma Home
38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B