FRANCE LIGUE 1
19.04.2026 18:45
Parc des Princes
Referee: J. Brisard
Paris Saint Germain
Match Timeline
Lyon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
Endrick · Assist: A. Moreira
Lyon
🟨
13'
Ruben Kluivert
Lyon
18'
A. Moreira · Assist: Endrick
Lyon
🟨
29'
Ilya Zabarnyi
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
30'
Lucas Beraldo
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
39'
Vitinha ↔ W. Zaire-Emery
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
59'
G. Ramos ↔ O. Dembele
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
59'
D. Doue ↔ K. Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
59'
S. Mayulu ↔ Lee Kang-In
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
60'
R. Kluivert ↔ H. Hateboer
Lyon
🟨
65'
Kang-in Lee
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
68'
Lucas Hernandez
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
72'
B. Barcola ↔ F. Ruiz
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
79'
O. Mangala ↔ T. Tessmann
Lyon
🔄
79'
Endrick ↔ A. Karabec
Lyon
🔄
85'
K. Merah ↔ N. Kamara
Lyon
🟨
90+5'
Fabián Ruiz
Paris Saint Germain
90'
K. Kvaratskhelia · Assist: F. Ruiz
Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
53.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73%
-
Probability Distribution
Paris Saint Germain Win 88.2%
Draw 0%
Lyon Win 11.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain1.81
Lyon1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WWDLW
105 GF / 43 GA
Lyon Lyon
WLDWL
71 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
2.39
Average Goals Scored
1.65
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
21
BTTS Yes
18
28
Over 2.5
20
7.02
Shots on Goal
4.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 44 matches
Lyon Lyon 43 matches
Paris Saint Germain Statistic Lyon
30 Wins 25
7 Draws 8
7 Losses 10
105 Goals For 71
43 Goals Against 40
2.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
21 BTTS Yes 18
35 Over 1.5 29
28 Over 2.5 20
18 Over 3.5 11
20 Clean Sheets 22
4 Failed To Score 7
7.02 Shots On Goal 4.91
18.27 Total Shots 13.02
5.95 Corners 5.33
68.5% Ball Possession 57.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Lyon seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Paris Saint Germain expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Lyon in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lyon having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lyon. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Paris Saint Germain come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Paris Saint Germain arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 63 points compared to Lyon in 5 on 51, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 63 points from 27 games, Paris Saint Germain bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 20 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a 61:23 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on B. Barcola (10 goals), O. Dembele (10 goals), Gonçalo Ramos (6 goals), with creative support from Vitinha (7 assists), O. Dembele (5 assists), N. Mendes (5 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. Although they are without Q. Ndjantou, F. Ruiz, N. Mendes, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Lyon Analysis

Lyon arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 51 points after 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 43:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Sulc (11 goals), C. Tolisso (8 goals), Abner Vinícius (3 goals), with creative support from Afonso Moreira (6 assists), Endrick (5 assists), P. Sulc (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. Fofana, R. Himbert, N. Kamara, N. Tagliafico unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 10 times, Lyon won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:17 from Paris Saint Germain's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 / Lyon 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Paris Saint Germain 2, Lyon 6
H2H summary: Paris Saint Germain wins 10, draws 2, Lyon wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4
Lyon Away
34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation