Login Register
22.10.2026 00:30
Nubank Parque

Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 69.7%
Draw 9.1%
Fluminense Win 21.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.47
Fluminense1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
69 GF / 32 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
68 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.58
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
24
BTTS Yes
29
19
Over 2.5
22
5.34
Shots on Goal
5.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 41 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 43 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Fluminense
24 Wins 19
12 Draws 13
5 Losses 11
69 Goals For 68
32 Goals Against 50
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
24 BTTS Yes 29
28 Over 1.5 35
19 Over 2.5 22
10 Over 3.5 12
16 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 7
5.34 Shots On Goal 5.29
16 Total Shots 14.12
6.02 Corners 4.83
53% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Palmeiras's more proactive style and Fluminense's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Palmeiras hold an advantage after winning the first leg 2-1, so Fluminense now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Fluminense controlled more possession in the first leg (70% against 30%). Palmeiras were also more accurate in attack, recording 5 shots on target to 3. Fluminense circulated the ball more often, making 810 passes to 353 and completing 731. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fluminense.

Palmeiras Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Palmeiras arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 11 points after 6 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 10:5 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on J. López (4 goals), J. Arias (3 goals), R. Sosa (2 goals), with creative support from J. López (4 assists), J. Arias (2 assists), Allan (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Fluminense arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 8 points after 6 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 7:7 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Canobbio (2 goals), John Kennedy (2 goals), Hulk (1 goals), with creative support from Hulk (2 assists), J. Savarino (1 assists), Guga (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1

Standings

Group F
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 6:2 4 13
W W W D W
2 6 3 2 1 10:5 5 11
W L W D W
3 6 2 0 4 6:9 -3 6
L L L W L
4 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L W L L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals