ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Referee: G. Collu
Palermo
Match Timeline
Cesena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
J. Pohjanpalo · Assist: J. Le Douaron
Palermo
🟨
41'
Alberto Cerri
Cesena
71'
J. Pohjanpalo · Assist: R. Modesto
Palermo
🔄
72'
M. Castagnetti ↔ G. Castrovilli
Cesena
🔄
72'
T. Corazza ↔ G. Frabotta
Cesena
🔄
72'
A. Cerri ↔ R. Ciervo
Cesena
🔄
74'
J. Le Douaron ↔ E. Gyasi
Palermo
🔄
74'
A. Palumbo ↔ S. Giovane
Palermo
🔄
78'
M. Olivieri ↔ G. Vrioni
Cesena
🔄
80'
R. Modesto ↔ G. Magnani
Palermo
🔄
80'
J. Segre ↔ A. Vasic
Palermo
🔄
88'
J. Pohjanpalo ↔ G. Corona
Palermo
🔄
90'
T. Berti ↔ T. Arrigoni
Cesena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Palermo Win 78.9%
Draw 10.5%
Cesena Win 10.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palermo1.51
Cesena1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palermo Palermo
WWDLW
56 GF / 30 GA
Cesena Cesena
WLDWL
42 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
15
BTTS Yes
22
17
Over 2.5
19
4.36
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palermo Palermo 36 matches
Cesena Cesena 35 matches
Palermo Statistic Cesena
18 Wins 12
12 Draws 9
6 Losses 14
56 Goals For 42
30 Goals Against 50
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
15 BTTS Yes 22
25 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 10
17 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 9
4.36 Shots On Goal 3.97
13.89 Total Shots 13.03
5.22 Corners 4.71
48.8% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Palermo's more proactive style and Cesena's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palermo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Cesena in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cesena having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cesena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Palermo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 65 points compared to Cesena in 8 on 44, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Palermo Analysis

Placed 4 with 65 points from 34 outings, Palermo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 18 wins, 11 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 55:28 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Pohjanpalo (21 goals), Filippo Ranocchia (6 goals), J. Le Douaron (5 goals), with creative support from A. Palumbo (10 assists), J. Pohjanpalo (7 assists), J. Le Douaron (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cesena Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Cesena have collected 44 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses, while the 42:50 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Shpendi (10 goals), R. Ciervo (5 goals), Gianluca Frabotta (4 goals), with creative support from T. Berti (7 assists), C. Shpendi (4 assists), R. Ciervo (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Palermo won 3 times, Cesena won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:11 from Palermo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Palermo 3-4-2-1 / Cesena 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Palermo wins 3, draws 7, Cesena wins 2
Stats
Palermo Palermo
Cesena Cesena
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
6 Corner Kicks 6
14 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 1
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 3
11 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 5
14 Shots insidebox 6
3 Shots outsidebox 8
3 Goalkeeper Saves 1
367 Total passes 609
317 Passes accurate 545
1.82 expected_goals 1.35
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Palermo
Formation
Cesena
A. Gomis
A. Gomis
N. Pierozzi
N. Pierozzi
M. Bani
M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
P. Ceccaroni
R. Modesto
🎯
R. Modesto
J. Segre
J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
F. Ranocchia
T. Augello
T. Augello
J. Le Douaron
🎯
J. Le Douaron
A. Palumbo
A. Palumbo
J. Pohjanpalo
⚽ 2
J. Pohjanpalo
J. Klinsmann
J. Klinsmann
A. Ciofi
A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
G. Zaro
M. Piacentini
M. Piacentini
T. Corazza
T. Corazza
M. Castagnetti
M. Castagnetti
D. Bisoli
D. Bisoli
C. Shpendi
C. Shpendi
T. Berti
T. Berti
M. Olivieri
M. Olivieri
A. Cerri
A. Cerri
Palermo 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
A. Gomis
G
27
N. Pierozzi
D
13
M. Bani
D
32
P. Ceccaroni
D
18
R. Modesto
🎯 71' ↓ 80'
M
8
J. Segre
↓ 80'
M
10
F. Ranocchia
M
3
T. Augello
M
21
J. Le Douaron
🎯 9' ↓ 74'
F
5
A. Palumbo
↓ 74'
F
20
J. Pohjanpalo
⚽ 9' ⚽ 71' ↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
66
J. Joronen
G
77
F. Di Bartolo
G
19
B. Bereszynski
D
11
E. Gyasi
↑ 74'
D
28
A. Blin
M
96
G. Magnani
↑ 80'
D
17
S. Giovane
↑ 74'
M
14
A. Vasic
↑ 80'
M
31
G. Corona
↑ 88'
F
72
D. Veroli
D
Cesena 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
33
J. Klinsmann
G
15
A. Ciofi
D
19
G. Zaro
D
26
M. Piacentini
D
27
T. Corazza
↓ 72'
D
4
M. Castagnetti
↓ 72'
M
25
D. Bisoli
M
9
C. Shpendi
M
14
T. Berti
↓ 90'
M
32
M. Olivieri
↓ 78'
M
7
A. Cerri
↓ 72' 🟨 41'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Siano
G
6
T. Arrigoni
↑ 90'
M
8
G. Castrovilli
↑ 72'
M
24
M. Mangraviti
D
22
G. Vrioni
↑ 78'
F
99
G. Frabotta
↑ 72'
D
18
M. Guidi
17
I. Wade
M
11
R. Ciervo
↑ 72'
F
70
M. Francesconi
M
16
P. Amoran
D
23
V. Magni
D
Last matches: Palermo
20.05.26
Ser
Palermo
Catanzaro
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Palermo
Catanzaro
0
3
L
08.05.26
Ser
Palermo
Venezia
0
2
L
01.05.26
Ser
Palermo
Catanzaro
3
2
W
25.04.26
Ser
Palermo
Reggiana
1
1
D
10.04.26
Ser
Palermo
Frosinone
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Palermo
Avellino
2
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Padova
1
0
W
17.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
14.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Monza
0
3
L
08.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Carrarese
1
0
W
04.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Mantova
2
1
W
01.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Pescara
1
2
L
21.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Sudtirol
3
0
W
14.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Virtus Entella
3
0
W
10.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Sampdoria
3
3
D
07.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Empoli
3
2
W
30.01.26
Ser
Palermo
Bari
3
0
W
24.01.26
Ser
Palermo
Modena
0
0
D
18.01.26
Ser
Palermo
Spezia
1
0
W
Last matches: Cesena
08.05.26
Ser
Cesena
Padova
3
4
L
01.05.26
Ser
Cesena
Carrarese
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sampdoria
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
3
1
W
17.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Mantova
0
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Frosinone
2
2
D
07.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Modena
0
0
D
03.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Monza
1
3
L
28.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Spezia
2
3
L
14.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Venezia
0
4
L
10.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Virtus Entella
1
3
L
06.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Pescara
2
0
W
31.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Avellino
1
3
L
24.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Bari
1
2
L
17.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Reggiana
2
1
W
10.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
0
2
L
H2H: Palermo vs Cesena
18.04.26
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
0
W
27.09.25
H2H
Cesena
Palermo
1
1
D
04.05.25
H2H
Cesena
Palermo
2
1
L
21.09.24
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
0
D
12.05.18
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
0
D
21.12.17
H2H
Cesena
Palermo
1
1
D
08.03.15
H2H
Cesena
Palermo
0
0
D
19.10.14
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
1
W
22.04.12
H2H
Cesena
Palermo
2
2
D
10.12.11
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
1
L
10.04.11
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
2
D
21.11.10
H2H
Cesena
Palermo
1
2
W
Last matches: Palermo
20.05.26
Ser
Palermo
Catanzaro
2
0
W
01.05.26
Ser
Palermo
Catanzaro
3
2
W
05.04.26
Ser
Palermo
Avellino
2
0
W
17.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
04.03.26
Ser
Palermo
Mantova
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Sudtirol
3
0
W
14.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Virtus Entella
3
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Palermo
Empoli
3
2
W
18.01.26
Ser
Palermo
Spezia
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Palermo
Padova
1
0
W
12.12.25
Ser
Palermo
Sampdoria
1
0
W
29.11.25
Ser
Palermo
Carrarese
5
0
W
01.11.25
Ser
Palermo
Pescara
5
0
W
28.10.25
Ser
Palermo
Monza
0
3
L
19.10.25
Ser
Palermo
Modena
1
1
D
30.09.25
Ser
Palermo
Venezia
0
0
D
19.09.25
Ser
Palermo
Bari
2
0
W
30.08.25
Ser
Palermo
Frosinone
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Palermo
Reggiana
2
1
W
H2H at home: Palermo
18.04.26
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
0
W
21.09.24
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
0
D
12.05.18
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
0
D
19.10.14
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
1
W
10.12.11
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
1
L
10.04.11
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
2
D
Last matches: Cesena
01.05.26
Ser
Cesena
Carrarese
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Mantova
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Modena
0
0
D
28.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
1
1
D
10.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Virtus Entella
1
3
L
31.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Avellino
1
3
L
17.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Reggiana
2
1
W
27.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
0
2
L
08.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Padova
1
1
D
23.11.25
Ser
Cesena
Monza
0
1
L
02.11.25
Ser
Cesena
Bari
0
1
L
25.10.25
Ser
Cesena
Sudtirol
1
0
W
18.10.25
Ser
Cesena
Spezia
2
1
W
30.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Frosinone
1
3
L
20.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Venezia
2
1
W
13.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Sampdoria
2
1
W
22.08.25
Ser
Cesena
Pescara
3
1
W
H2H away: Cesena
18.04.26
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
0
L
21.09.24
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
0
D
12.05.18
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
0
D
19.10.14
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
1
L
10.12.11
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
0
1
W
10.04.11
H2H
Palermo
Cesena
2
2
D

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation