ITALY › SERIE B
20.05.2026 18:00
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Referee: M. Marcenaro
Palermo
Match Timeline
Catanzaro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
J. Pohjanpalo · Assist: N. Pierozzi
Palermo
🔄
16'
P. Peda ↔ G. Magnani
Palermo
🟨
20'
Dennis Johnsen
Palermo
🟨
45+4'
Jacopo Segre
Palermo
🔄
46'
J. Le Douaron ↔ A. Vasic
Palermo
🔄
46'
M. Liberali ↔ F. Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🟨
49'
Filippo Pittarello
Catanzaro
🔄
50'
J. Segre ↔ R. Modesto
Palermo
🔄
61'
P. Iemmello ↔ M. Pompetti
Catanzaro
🟨
65'
Aljoša Vasić
Palermo
🔄
75'
D. Johnsen ↔ E. Gyasi
Palermo
🔄
76'
P. Ceccaroni ↔ G. Corona
Palermo
🔄
78'
G. Alesi ↔ R. Frosinini
Catanzaro
🔄
78'
J. Petriccione ↔ F. Rispoli
Catanzaro
🔄
87'
C. Favasuli ↔ E. Bashi
Catanzaro
⚽
89'
R. Modesto · Assist: F. Ranocchia
Palermo
🟥
90+6'
Antonio Palumbo
Palermo
🟥
90+3'
Niccolò Pierozzi
Palermo
🟨
90+5'
Federico Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🟨
90+4'
Simone Pontisso
Catanzaro

Palermo vs Catanzaro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
83.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palermo Win 66.8%
Draw 0%
Catanzaro Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palermo1.41
Catanzaro1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palermo Palermo
WWDLW
62 GF / 38 GA
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WLDWL
68 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.51
Average Goals Scored
1.66
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
17
BTTS Yes
26
19
Over 2.5
23
4.37
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palermo Palermo 41 matches
Catanzaro Catanzaro 41 matches
Palermo Statistic Catanzaro
20 Wins 17
13 Draws 14
8 Losses 10
62 Goals For 68
38 Goals Against 52
1.51 Avg Goals Scored 1.66
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
17 BTTS Yes 26
30 Over 1.5 33
19 Over 2.5 23
8 Over 3.5 16
18 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 7
4.37 Shots On Goal 4.56
13.93 Total Shots 12.85
5.1 Corners 4.24
48.8% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Catanzaro have the edge after taking the first leg 3-0, leaving Palermo needing to respond to a 3-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Palermo had more of the ball in the first leg (55% possession compared to 45%). Catanzaro carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 1. Palermo also attempted more passes (447 to 373) and completed 351. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Catanzaro. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Palermo Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Palermo arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 72 points after 38 matches. The return of 20 wins, 12 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 61:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by J. Pohjanpalo (24 goals), Filippo Ranocchia (6 goals), J. Le Douaron (5 goals), with creative support from A. Palumbo (10 assists), J. Pohjanpalo (7 assists), J. Le Douaron (5 assists), and at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split of 14 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Catanzaro Analysis

Catanzaro come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 59 points from 38 matches. Their record of 15 wins, 14 draws, and 9 defeats with goals at 62:51 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on P. Iemmello (13 goals), Filippo Pittarello (12 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (10 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Palermo won 3 times, Catanzaro won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Palermo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Palermo 3-4-2-1 / Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Palermo wins 3, draws 4, Catanzaro wins 6

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation