ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
16.09.2026 16:00
Paide linnastaadion

Paide vs Vaprus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65%
Odds 1.61
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65%
1.61
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 65%
Draw 4.3%
Vaprus Win 30.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.73
Vaprus1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
65 GF / 55 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
56 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
28
BTTS Yes
21
22
Over 2.5
23
0.43
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 41 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 33 matches
Paide Statistic Vaprus
19 Wins 12
10 Draws 5
12 Losses 16
65 Goals For 56
55 Goals Against 64
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
28 BTTS Yes 21
32 Over 1.5 28
22 Over 2.5 23
15 Over 3.5 16
9 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 7
0.43 Shots On Goal 0
1.43 Total Shots 0
0.71 Corners 0
8.7% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Paide's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vaprus. Vaprus arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Paide Analysis

Paide approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 32 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a 32:28 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 26 points from 20 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 28:38, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 9 times, Vaprus won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:11 from Paide's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Paide 4-3-3 / Vaprus 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Paide wins 9, draws 2, Vaprus wins 4

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4
Paide Home
27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga