ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
23.08.2026 14:00
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: J. Lorenz
Paide
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
25'
N. Baranov ↔ M. Lilander
Paide
27'
K. Kait · Assist: M. P. Sohna
Paide
30'
K. Oostenbrink
Nõmme United
49'
A. Badamosi · Assist: M. Jobarteh
Paide
🟨
53'
K. Kait
Paide
🔄
55'
K. Kait ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
55'
A. Surogin ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
67'
K. Laanelaid ↔ I. Krasnov
Nõmme United
🔄
67'
A. Alteberg ↔ S. Geiger
Nõmme United
🟨
70'
I. Krasnov
Nõmme United
🔄
70'
A. Badamosi ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
70'
D. Luts ↔ J. Palacios
Paide
75'
H. Anier · Assist: O. Hoim
Paide
77'
H. Anier · Assist: M. P. Sohna
Paide
🔄
78'
B. Chisala ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United
🔄
78'
K. Matas ↔ A. Kaspar
Nõmme United
🔄
83'
A. Frolov ↔ G. Kabal
Nõmme United
🟨
89'
I. Krasnov
Nõmme United
🟥
89'
I. Krasnov
Nõmme United

Paide vs Nõmme United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
86%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 57.9%
Draw 6.9%
Nõmme United Win 35.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.91
Nõmme United1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
56 GF / 49 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
60 GF / 73 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
2
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
2.43
25
BTTS Yes
24
19
Over 2.5
28
0.75
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 36 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 30 matches
Paide Statistic Nõmme United
16 Wins 12
10 Draws 2
10 Losses 16
56 Goals For 60
49 Goals Against 73
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 2.43
25 BTTS Yes 24
27 Over 1.5 29
19 Over 2.5 28
14 Over 3.5 19
8 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 5
0.75 Shots On Goal 0
2.5 Total Shots 0
1.25 Corners 0
15.3% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Paide's more proactive style and Nõmme United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Paide arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 35 points compared to Nõmme United in 7 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nõmme United. Nõmme United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 35 points after 21 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a 33:28 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Nõmme United Analysis

Nõmme United sit 7 with 25 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 14 defeats with a 40:54 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 8 times, Nõmme United won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:7 from Paide's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Paide 4-3-3 / Nõmme United -
H2H summary: Paide wins 8, draws 0, Nõmme United wins 0

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 22 6 1 81:21 60 72
D W W W W
2 29 18 1 10 59:39 20 55
W W D W W
3
Paide Home
29 15 6 8 48:36 12 51
W W L W L
4 29 15 5 9 52:27 25 50
W W L L L
5 29 14 2 13 37:47 -10 44
L L W L W
6 29 11 2 16 40:47 -7 35
D W L L W
7 29 10 4 15 39:57 -18 34
L L L W W
8 29 8 5 16 31:49 -18 29
D L L W D
9 29 9 1 19 47:68 -21 28
L L W L L
10 29 5 4 20 22:65 -43 19
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga