ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
13.09.2026 11:30
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: J. Frischer
Paide
Match Timeline
Laagri
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
M. Kelement · Assist: H. Palutaja
Laagri
🟨
35'
M. Seck
Laagri
🟨
41'
A. Kaevats
Laagri
🟨
43'
K. Roomussaar
Laagri
🔄
46'
A. Kaevats ↔ S. Suppi
Laagri
🔄
46'
K. Eerme ↔ R. Reimaa
Laagri
🔄
46'
Daniel Cabral ↔ M. Miller
Paide
53'
H. Anier · Assist: M. P. Sohna
Paide
🟨
57'
Andrade
Paide
🔄
57'
M. Kesa ↔ I. Bah
Laagri
🟨
67'
S. Suppi
Laagri
🔄
67'
M. Seck ↔ K. Laur
Laagri
🟨
69'
M. Miller
Paide
70'
M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
72'
Andrade ↔ E. Tur
Paide
🔄
72'
D. Luts ↔ M. Jobarteh
Paide
🔄
75'
Y. E. Assale ↔ Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🟨
75'
Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🔄
81'
J. Palacios ↔ D. Darboe
Paide
🟨
84'
I. Bah
Laagri
🟨
86'
H. Anier
Paide
🟨
90+2'
A. Binate
Laagri
🟨
90+2'
O. Hoim
Paide

Paide vs Laagri Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.1%
Odds 1.59
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.1%
1.59
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.43
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.5%
1.43
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 76.1%
Draw 5.1%
Laagri Win 18.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.61
Laagri1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
64 GF / 53 GA
Laagri Laagri
WLDWL
54 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
27
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
23
0.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 40 matches
Laagri Laagri 34 matches
Paide Statistic Laagri
19 Wins 14
10 Draws 3
11 Losses 17
64 Goals For 54
53 Goals Against 55
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
27 BTTS Yes 19
31 Over 1.5 29
21 Over 2.5 23
15 Over 3.5 12
9 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 7
0.5 Shots On Goal 0
1.67 Total Shots 0
0.83 Corners 0
10.2% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Paide's more proactive style and Laagri's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Laagri arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Laagri having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Laagri.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 42 points after 24 matches. They have recorded 12 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 40:31 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Laagri Analysis

With 31 points from 25 games and a place of 6, Laagri still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 1 draws, and 14 defeats with a 36:41 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 7 times, Laagri won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:13 from Paide's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.82 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Paide - / Laagri 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Paide wins 7, draws 2, Laagri wins 2

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4
Paide Home
27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga