ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
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Paide linnastaadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.7%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 74.7%
Draw 4.3%
Kuressaare Win 21%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.81
Kuressaare1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
52 GF / 41 GA
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WLDWL
30 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
2
22
BTTS Yes
14
18
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 31 matches
Kuressaare Kuressaare 25 matches
Paide Statistic Kuressaare
15 Wins 6
8 Draws 5
8 Losses 14
52 Goals For 30
41 Goals Against 50
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 2
22 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 19
18 Over 2.5 15
13 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Paide's more proactive style and Kuressaare's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Kuressaare arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kuressaare. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kuressaare having the stronger overall control. Paide arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 32 points compared to Kuressaare in 9 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 32 points after 20 matches. The return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 32:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Kuressaare Analysis

With 18 points from 20 games and a place of 9, Kuressaare still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 19:33, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 12 times, Kuressaare won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:11 from Paide's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Paide 4-3-3 / Kuressaare -
H2H summary: Paide wins 12, draws 3, Kuressaare wins 0
Last matches: Paide
23.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
0
W
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
16.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
3
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
19.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
11.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
3
L
02.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
H2H: Paide vs Kuressaare
31.05.26
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
03.04.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
W
04.10.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
5
1
W
13.08.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
1
2
W
04.05.25
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
02.03.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
1
2
W
23.11.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
2
1
W
21.09.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
4
3
W
04.08.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
0
2
W
28.06.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
0
2
W
10.04.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
2
0
W
06.04.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
3
1
W
22.10.23
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
23.07.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Paide
0
4
W
Last matches: Paide
23.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
0
W
16.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
3
0
W
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Paide
Rīgas FS
2
2
D
14.01.26
Fri
Paide
Tartu Welco
5
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
2
L
17.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
4
1
W
H2H at home: Paide
31.05.26
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
5
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
23.11.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
2
1
W
21.09.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
4
3
W
10.04.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
2
0
W
06.04.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
3
1
W
22.10.23
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
11.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
24.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Viimsi
2
3
L
H2H away: Kuressaare
31.05.26
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
5
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
23.11.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
2
1
L
21.09.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
4
3
L
10.04.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
2
0
L
06.04.24
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
3
1
L
22.10.23
H2H
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4
Paide Home
20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 20 8 1 11 39:46 -7 25
W W L W L
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 20 4 1 15 15:47 -32 13
W L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga