ITALY SERIE B
19.04.2026 15:15
Stadio Euganeo
Referee: G. Mucera
Padova
Match Timeline
Reggiana
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Tobías Reinhart
Reggiana
🔄
46'
K. Bozhanaj ↔ M. Rover
Reggiana
🟨
50'
Simone Bonetti
Reggiana
🔄
56'
S. Bonetti ↔ A. Tripaldelli
Reggiana
🔄
68'
F. Di Mariano ↔ G. Caprari
Padova
🔄
68'
P. Fusi ↔ L. Di Maggio
Padova
🔄
73'
C. Gondo ↔ A. Novakovich
Reggiana
🔄
77'
M. Bortolussi ↔ A. Seghetti
Padova
🔄
77'
K. Varas ↔ J. Silva
Padova
80'
A. Seghetti · Assist: G. Caprari
Padova
🔄
81'
M. Lambourde ↔ T. Fumagalli
Reggiana
🔄
81'
M. Bertagnoli ↔ Charlys
Reggiana

Padova vs Reggiana Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
52.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Padova Win 50.1%
Draw 23.1%
Reggiana Win 26.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Padova1.17
Reggiana1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Padova Padova
WWDLW
33 GF / 47 GA
Reggiana Reggiana
WLDWL
34 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.51
18
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
17
3.6
Shots on Goal
3.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Padova Padova 35 matches
Reggiana Reggiana 35 matches
Padova Statistic Reggiana
9 Wins 8
10 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
33 Goals For 34
47 Goals Against 53
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.51
18 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 17
7 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 10
3.6 Shots On Goal 3.29
10.69 Total Shots 10.4
3.97 Corners 3.63
46.7% Ball Possession 41.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Reggiana. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Padova Analysis

Padova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 37 points from 34 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 33:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Bortolussi (10 goals), K. Lasagna (6 goals), F. Sgarbi (4 goals), with creative support from Alessandro Capelli (5 assists), K. Varas (4 assists), C. Buonaiuto (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Reggiana Analysis

Reggiana sit 18 with 33 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 33:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Portanova (7 goals), A. Novakovich (4 goals), E. Tavsan (3 goals), with creative support from M. Bertagnoli (5 assists), M. Marras (4 assists), N. Girma (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Padova won 3 times, Reggiana won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:4 from Padova's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.9%)
Predicted formations: Padova 3-5-2 / Reggiana 3-5-2
H2H summary: Padova wins 3, draws 3, Reggiana wins 1

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation