SPAIN LA LIGA
23.04.2026 19:30
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Referee: R. De Burgos
Oviedo
Match Timeline
Villarreal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
9'
Nicolas Pépé
Villarreal
13'
N. Pepe
Villarreal
🟨
37'
Aaron Escandell
Oviedo
🔄
46'
T. Buchanan ↔ G. Mikautadze
Villarreal
🔄
63'
A. Gonzalez ↔ A. Moleiro
Villarreal
🔄
63'
T. Oluwaseyi ↔ A. Perez
Villarreal
69'
I. Chaira
Oviedo
🔄
71'
K. Sibo ↔ O. Ejaria
Oviedo
🔄
71'
T. Fernandez ↔ H. Hassan
Oviedo
🔄
72'
A. Reina ↔ S. Cazorla
Oviedo
🔄
78'
D. Parejo ↔ T. Partey
Villarreal
🔄
78'
S. Mourino ↔ A. Freeman
Villarreal
🟨
90+6'
Alberto Moleiro
Villarreal
🔄
90'
J. Lopez ↔ R. Alhassane
Oviedo
🔄
90+1'
I. Chaira ↔ P. Agudin
Oviedo

Oviedo vs Villarreal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Oviedo Win 30.3%
Draw 12.1%
Villarreal Win 57.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Oviedo1.02
Villarreal1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Oviedo Oviedo
WWDLW
26 GF / 52 GA
Villarreal Villarreal
WLDWL
68 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
11
BTTS Yes
22
13
Over 2.5
25
3.34
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Oviedo Oviedo 32 matches
Villarreal Villarreal 42 matches
Oviedo Statistic Villarreal
6 Wins 20
9 Draws 6
17 Losses 16
26 Goals For 68
52 Goals Against 56
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
11 BTTS Yes 22
21 Over 1.5 36
13 Over 2.5 25
7 Over 3.5 15
9 Clean Sheets 10
16 Failed To Score 11
3.34 Shots On Goal 4.76
9.84 Total Shots 13.55
3.81 Corners 4.31
45.3% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Villarreal's more proactive style and Oviedo's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Villarreal carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 61 points while Oviedo sit 20 on 27, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Villarreal. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Oviedo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Villarreal in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Villarreal having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Oviedo Analysis

Oviedo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 27 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 9 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 24:48 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Federico Viñas (9 goals), Alberto Reina (4 goals), Ilyas Chaira (4 goals), with creative support from T. Fernandez (4 assists), H. Hassan (3 assists), Ilyas Chaira (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Dendoncker, L. Ilic, A. Fores, N. Fonseca unavailable.

Villarreal Analysis

Villarreal approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 61 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 19 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a 56:36 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Moleiro (9 goals), G. Mikautadze (9 goals), G. Moreno (8 goals), with creative support from G. Mikautadze (5 assists), Santi Comesaña (5 assists), A. Moleiro (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with T. Partey, P. Cabanes, L. Costa, S. Comesana unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Oviedo won 0 times, Villarreal won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Oviedo's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Oviedo 4-2-3-1 / Villarreal 4-4-2
Missing players: Oviedo 4, Villarreal 4
H2H summary: Oviedo wins 0, draws 1, Villarreal wins 1

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2