COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
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Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orsomarso Win 60.3%
Draw 9.4%
Popayan Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orsomarso1
Popayan0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orsomarso Orsomarso
WWDLW
14 GF / 17 GA
Popayan Popayan
WLDWL
17 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
5
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orsomarso Orsomarso 17 matches
Popayan Popayan 18 matches
Orsomarso Statistic Popayan
5 Wins 3
6 Draws 8
6 Losses 7
14 Goals For 17
17 Goals Against 23
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
5 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 13
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Popayan having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Popayan.

Orsomarso Analysis

Orsomarso sit 10 with 17 points after 15 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 13:17 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Popayan Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Popayan have collected 13 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 15:20 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Orsomarso won 2 times, Popayan won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:19 from Orsomarso's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.21 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
H2H summary: Orsomarso wins 2, draws 5, Popayan wins 7
Last matches: Orsomarso
31.07.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Leones FC
0
0
D
13.04.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Bogota FC
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
1
2
L
27.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Ind. Yumbo
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Santander
2
0
W
11.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Depor FC
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Cartagena
0
4
L
01.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Envigado
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Soacha
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
2
D
09.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Patriotas
0
0
D
04.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Tigres FC
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
2
1
W
25.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Cucuta
0
1
L
19.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
2
3
L
13.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
0
0
D
Last matches: Popayan
06.08.26
Pri
Popayan
Real Soacha
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Popayan
Tigres FC
0
0
D
24.07.26
Pri
Popayan
Quindio
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Popayan
Internacional Palmira
1
2
L
07.04.26
Pri
Popayan
Ind. Yumbo
0
0
D
31.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Depor FC
1
1
D
27.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Real Cartagena
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Patriotas
3
3
D
14.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Leones FC
2
1
W
10.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Real Santander
1
1
D
05.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Envigado
0
1
L
26.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Barranquilla
0
2
L
22.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Bogota FC
1
2
L
18.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Orsomarso
2
2
D
09.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Union Magdalena
2
0
W
05.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Real Soacha
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Tigres FC
0
2
L
26.01.26
Pri
Popayan
Quindio
0
1
L
24.11.25
Pri
Popayan
Real Cartagena
0
0
D
20.11.25
Pri
Popayan
Real Soacha
0
1
L
H2H: Orsomarso vs Popayan
18.02.26
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
2
2
D
28.09.25
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
3
L
23.04.25
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
0
1
W
29.09.24
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
0
0
D
26.04.24
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
2
L
27.08.23
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
1
L
13.03.23
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
0
0
D
18.07.22
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
2
1
L
14.02.22
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
0
W
23.10.21
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
2
1
L
20.02.21
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
0
0
D
29.08.20
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
0
0
D
12.03.20
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
3
L
30.07.19
H2H
Popayan
Orsomarso
2
1
L
10.02.19
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
2
D
Last matches: Orsomarso
26.07.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Leones FC
0
0
D
31.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Ind. Yumbo
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Santander
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Envigado
0
1
L
09.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Patriotas
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
0
1
L
19.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
2
3
L
13.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
3
L
14.09.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Santander
1
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Huila
0
1
L
13.08.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Patriotas
2
2
D
26.07.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Jaguares
1
0
W
15.07.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Bogota FC
1
1
D
18.05.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Cucuta
2
2
D
28.04.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Soacha
0
1
L
11.04.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Cartagena
1
2
L
29.03.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
0
2
L
H2H at home: Orsomarso
28.09.25
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
3
L
26.04.24
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
2
L
27.08.23
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
1
L
14.02.22
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
0
W
12.03.20
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
3
L
10.02.19
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
2
D
Last matches: Popayan
06.08.26
Pri
Popayan
Real Soacha
1
3
L
24.07.26
Pri
Popayan
Quindio
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Popayan
Internacional Palmira
1
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Depor FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Patriotas
3
3
D
10.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Real Santander
1
1
D
05.03.26
Pri
Popayan
Envigado
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Bogota FC
1
2
L
09.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Union Magdalena
2
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Popayan
Tigres FC
0
2
L
20.11.25
Pri
Popayan
Real Soacha
0
1
L
15.11.25
Pri
Popayan
Patriotas
0
1
L
01.11.25
Pri
Popayan
Real Cartagena
1
1
D
27.10.25
Pri
Popayan
Jaguares
1
1
D
13.10.25
Pri
Popayan
Depor FC
1
0
W
28.09.25
Pri
Popayan
Orsomarso
3
0
W
16.09.25
Pri
Popayan
Huila
1
0
W
29.08.25
Pri
Popayan
Real Santander
2
2
D
17.08.25
Pri
Popayan
Cucuta
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Popayan
Patriotas
0
1
L
H2H away: Popayan
28.09.25
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
3
W
26.04.24
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
2
W
27.08.23
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
0
1
W
14.02.22
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
0
L
12.03.20
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
3
W
10.02.19
H2H
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
2
D

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 17 10 3 4 28:17 11 33
D W W W L
3 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
4 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
5 17 7 6 4 26:19 7 27
D L L L W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L