🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Exploria Stadium
Referee: F. Bazakos
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
Real Salt Lake
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
36'
D. Marczuk · Assist: S. Junqua
Real Salt Lake
🟨
43'
Lineker Rodrigues
Real Salt Lake
🟨
45+4'
A. Katranis
Real Salt Lake
🔄
46'
Tiago ↔ D. Dike
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
M. Pasalic ↔ J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
Luis Otavio ↔ J. Gerbet
Orlando City SC
53'
A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC
🔄
61'
A. Hezarkhani ↔ D. Luna
Real Salt Lake
🔄
61'
D. Marczuk ↔ S. Lobjanidze
Real Salt Lake
🔄
62'
V. Olatunji ↔ M. Guilavogui
Real Salt Lake
🔄
66'
L. Moisa ↔ N. Caliskan
Real Salt Lake
🔄
69'
Z. Taifi ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
🟨
71'
K. Henry
Real Salt Lake
🔄
77'
A. Katranis ↔ J. Sanabria
Real Salt Lake
81'
A. Griezmann
Orlando City SC
🟨
82'
E. Atuesta
Orlando City SC
🔄
85'
E. Atuesta ↔ W. Cartagena
Orlando City SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds 1.89
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.7%
1.89
BTTS Yes
86%
1.40
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.38
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 63.7%
Draw 5.7%
Real Salt Lake Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.61
Real Salt Lake2.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
39 GF / 60 GA
Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake
WLDWL
43 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.87
2.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
17
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
16
4.55
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 matches
Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 23 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic Real Salt Lake
7 Wins 10
4 Draws 6
13 Losses 7
39 Goals For 43
60 Goals Against 36
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.87
2.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
17 BTTS Yes 19
22 Over 1.5 22
18 Over 2.5 16
14 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
4.55 Shots On Goal 5.68
11.4 Total Shots 14.84
3.55 Corners 4.89
44.7% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Real Salt Lake's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Real Salt Lake. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Real Salt Lake in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Real Salt Lake having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Orlando City SC Analysis

Orlando City SC are currently 10 in the standings with 20 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 30:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Martín Ojeda (9 goals), T. Spicer (2 goals), G. Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Salt Lake Analysis

Real Salt Lake arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 27 points after 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 29:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Zavier Gozo (4 goals), Sergi Solans (3 goals), Diego Luna (3 goals), with creative support from Sergi Solans (3 assists), Zavier Gozo (2 assists), Juan Sanabria (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 2 times, Real Salt Lake won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:10 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-4-2 / Real Salt Lake 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Orlando City SC 4, Real Salt Lake 6
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 2, draws 3, Real Salt Lake wins 2
Last matches: Orlando City SC
19.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
15.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
01.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes
4
0
W
23.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
2
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
Last matches: Real Salt Lake
20.08.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
3
4
L
16.08.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Minnesota United FC
1
1
D
02.08.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Portland Timbers
1
2
L
23.07.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles FC
1
3
L
16.07.26
Fri
Real Salt Lake
Burnley
4
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Minnesota United FC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Colorado Rapids
2
1
W
14.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo
3
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
1
3
L
02.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
26.04.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
23.04.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Inter Miami
0
2
L
19.04.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
4
2
W
04.04.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City
3
1
W
22.03.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
2
2
D
15.03.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Austin
2
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
01.03.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders
2
1
W
22.02.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
1
L
H2H: Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake
09.07.23
H2H
Real Salt Lake
Orlando City SC
4
0
L
01.03.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
0
0
D
14.04.19
H2H
Real Salt Lake
Orlando City SC
2
1
L
06.05.18
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
3
1
W
01.07.17
H2H
Real Salt Lake
Orlando City SC
0
1
W
06.03.16
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
2
2
D
05.07.15
H2H
Real Salt Lake
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Orlando City SC
19.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
15.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
11.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
07.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Lexington
1
2
L
H2H at home: Orlando City SC
01.03.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
0
0
D
06.05.18
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
3
1
W
06.03.16
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
2
2
D
Last matches: Real Salt Lake
02.08.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Portland Timbers
1
2
L
23.07.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles FC
1
3
L
23.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Minnesota United FC
1
1
D
10.05.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
1
3
L
26.04.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
22.03.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
2
2
D
08.03.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
22.02.26
Maj
Real Salt Lake
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
3
D
22.01.26
Fri
Real Salt Lake
Randers FC
2
1
W
H2H away: Real Salt Lake
01.03.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
0
0
D
06.05.18
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
3
1
L
06.03.16
H2H
Orlando City SC
Real Salt Lake
2
2
D
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.42
Draw 4.31
Home 1.89
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.82
Draw 2.71
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.38
Over 2.75 1.54
Over 3.0 1.57
Over 3.25 1.78
Over 3.5 1.98
Over 3.75 2.21
Over 4.0 2.59
Over 4.5 3.13
Over 5.5 5.51
Under 1.5 6.55
Under 2.5 3.01
Under 2.75 2.50
Under 3.0 2.43
Under 3.25 2.07
Under 3.5 1.86
Under 3.75 1.68
Under 4.0 1.51
Under 4.5 1.36
Under 5.5 1.15
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 4.20
Home 1.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.60
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.88
Home 2.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.40
Over 3.5 1.91
Over 4.5 3.25
Over 5.5 6.00
Over 6.5 11.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Over 8.5 41.00
Under 0.5 23.00
Under 1.5 6.50
Under 2.5 2.88
Under 3.5 1.80
Under 4.5 1.33
Under 5.5 1.12
Under 6.5 1.05
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 4.10
Home 1.83
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.65
Home 2.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 3.10
Home 2.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.08
Over 2.5 1.33
Over 3.0 1.48
Over 3.25 1.68
Over 3.5 1.86
Over 3.75 2.07
Over 4.0 2.43
Over 4.25 2.70
Over 4.5 3.00
Over 5.5 5.25
Over 6.5 9.50
Under 1.5 7.00
Under 2.5 3.20
Under 3.0 2.55
Under 3.25 2.12
Under 3.5 1.89
Under 3.75 1.71
Under 4.0 1.53
Under 4.25 1.44
Under 4.5 1.37
Under 5.5 1.14
Under 6.5 1.04

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 4 2 43:17 26 49
W W W D L
2 21 11 6 4 49:40 9 39
L D L D W
3 20 11 3 6 37:26 11 36
D W W W L
4 21 10 4 7 33:26 7 34
D W L L D
5 21 9 5 7 38:32 6 32
W D W L W
6 21 8 7 6 49:47 2 31
D W D W L
7 21 7 6 8 35:30 5 27
D L L D W
8 21 7 5 9 31:43 -12 26
D L L W L
9 21 7 3 11 34:51 -17 24
W L D L W
10 21 5 9 7 31:37 -6 24
W D W D L
11 21 5 9 7 28:36 -8 24
L L D D W
12 21 5 6 10 31:38 -7 21
D D W W W
13 21 5 6 10 29:39 -10 21
D W D D L
14 21 5 5 11 30:36 -6 20
L L L D W
15 20 5 3 12 23:35 -12 18
W W L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Orlando City SC 4 missing
-
B. Ojeda
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
N. Miller
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Ojeda
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
B. Rhein
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
Real Salt Lake 6 missing
-
J. Glad
Questionable Groin Injury
OUT
-
G. Dillon
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
Z. Booth
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
M. Guilavogui
Questionable Head Injury
OUT
-
A. Piol
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
E. Eneli
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT