🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Exploria Stadium
Referee: T. Penso
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
P. Bucha
FC Cincinnati
🟨
29'
R. Jansson
Orlando City SC
🔄
39'
B. Rhein ↔ A. Gomez
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
O. Nwobodo ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
J. Gerbet ↔ M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
48'
T. Spicer · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🟨
55'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
61'
J. Ellis ↔ W. Cartagena
Orlando City SC
🔄
66'
S. Gidi ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
80'
T. Barlow ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
80'
B. J. Ramirez Leon ↔ K. Mboma
FC Cincinnati
🔄
82'
T. Spicer ↔ D. Dike
Orlando City SC
🟨
85'
M. Miazga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90'
M. Miazga ↔ T. Hadebe
FC Cincinnati

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.5%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.28
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.29
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.5%
1.22
BTTS Yes
86%
1.28
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.29
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.4%
1.25
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 50.1%
Draw 4.5%
FC Cincinnati Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.82
FC Cincinnati2.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
37 GF / 57 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
70 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
2.59
2.59
Average Goals Conceded
2.04
15
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
19
4.78
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 22 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 27 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic FC Cincinnati
7 Wins 12
3 Draws 7
12 Losses 8
37 Goals For 70
57 Goals Against 55
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 2.59
2.59 Avg Goals Conceded 2.04
15 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 19
14 Over 3.5 17
2 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 2
4.78 Shots On Goal 5.68
11.78 Total Shots 13.09
3.78 Corners 4.27
46.5% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FC Cincinnati's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cincinnati. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 20 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, while the 30:47 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), T. Spicer (2 goals), G. Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 6 in the standings with 26 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 45:44 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 5 times, FC Cincinnati won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-4-2 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-3
Missing players: Orlando City SC 3, FC Cincinnati 1
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 5, draws 5, FC Cincinnati wins 5
Last matches: Orlando City SC
19.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
01.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes
4
0
W
23.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
2
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
19.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
2
1
W
01.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes
4
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
1
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
W
10.07.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
3
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
H2H: Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati
15.08.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
23.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
L
11.02.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
28.09.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
28.06.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
L
05.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
3
W
04.05.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
L
02.09.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
W
05.03.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
0
D
24.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
0
L
13.03.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
L
16.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
W
07.08.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
01.05.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
W
29.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Orlando City SC
19.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
11.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
07.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Lexington
1
2
L
H2H at home: Orlando City SC
15.08.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
11.02.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
28.06.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
L
04.05.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
L
05.03.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
0
D
13.03.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
L
01.05.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
W
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
25.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
1
2
L
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
28.01.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
1
D
H2H away: FC Cincinnati
15.08.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
11.02.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
L
28.06.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
04.05.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
W
05.03.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
0
D
13.03.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
01.05.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
L
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.91
Draw 4.13
Home 2.15
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.24
Draw 2.85
Home 2.53
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 1.29
Over 3.25 1.54
Over 3.5 1.69
Over 3.75 1.84
Over 4.0 2.05
Over 4.25 2.27
Over 4.5 2.49
Over 5.5 4.10
Under 2.5 3.59
Under 3.25 2.49
Under 3.5 2.19
Under 3.75 2.00
Under 4.0 1.79
Under 4.25 1.64
Under 4.5 1.53
Under 5.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 4.10
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.75
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 3.00
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 1.5 1.07
Over 2.5 1.28
Over 3.5 1.67
Over 4.5 2.50
Over 5.5 4.33
Over 6.5 8.00
Over 7.5 15.00
Over 8.5 29.00
Over 9.5 51.00
Under 0.5 34.00
Under 1.5 9.00
Under 2.5 3.60
Under 3.5 2.10
Under 4.5 1.50
Under 5.5 1.20
Under 6.5 1.08
Under 7.5 1.03
Under 8.5 1.01
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 4.00
Home 2.23
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 2.63
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 3.25
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.06
Over 2.5 1.26
Over 3.25 1.53
Over 3.5 1.68
Over 3.75 1.84
Over 4.0 2.07
Over 4.25 2.30
Over 4.5 2.55
Over 4.75 2.95
Over 5.5 4.30
Over 6.5 7.50
Over 7.5 13.00
Under 1.5 8.00
Under 2.5 3.65
Under 3.25 2.40
Under 3.5 2.10
Under 3.75 1.91
Under 4.0 1.71
Under 4.25 1.58
Under 4.5 1.48
Under 4.75 1.37
Under 5.5 1.20
Under 6.5 1.07
Under 7.5 1.01

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 14 4 2 40:15 25 46
W W D L W
2 20 11 6 3 48:38 10 39
D L D W W
3 19 11 2 6 36:25 11 35
W W W L L
4 20 10 3 7 32:25 7 33
W L L D W
5 20 8 6 6 48:46 2 30
W D W L W
6 20 8 5 7 35:31 4 29
D W L W D
7 20 7 5 8 34:29 5 26
L L D W W
8 20 7 4 9 30:42 -12 25
L L W L L
9 20 5 9 6 27:33 -6 24
L D D W D
10 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L D L W W
11 20 4 9 7 29:36 -7 21
D W D L D
12 20 5 5 10 28:33 -5 20
L L D W L
13 20 5 5 10 30:37 -7 20
D W W W W
14 20 5 5 10 27:37 -10 20
W D D L L
15 20 5 3 12 23:35 -12 18
W W L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Orlando City SC 3 missing
-
B. Ojeda
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
N. Miller
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Ojeda
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
FC Cincinnati 1 missing
-
G. Valenzuela
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT