🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
15.08.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium
Referee: Tori Penso, USA
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
Pavel Bucha
FC Cincinnati
🟨
29'
Robin Jansson
Orlando City SC
🔄
39'
Bernardo Rhein ↔ Adrián Marín
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
Joran Gerbet ↔ Marco Pašalić
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
Obinna Nwobodo ↔ Tah Anunga
FC Cincinnati
48'
Tyrese Spicer · Assist: Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
VAR
54'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🟨
55'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
61'
Justin Ellis ↔ Wilder Cartagena
Orlando City SC
🔄
66'
Samuel Gidi ↔ Kyle Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
80'
Bryan Ramirez ↔ Kenji Mboma Dem
FC Cincinnati
🔄
80'
Tom Barlow ↔ Ayoub Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
82'
Tyrese Spicer ↔ Daryl Dike
Orlando City SC
🟨
85'
Matt Miazga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90'
Matt Miazga ↔ Teenage Hadebe
FC Cincinnati

Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.5%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 50.1%
Draw 4.5%
FC Cincinnati Win 45.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.82
FC Cincinnati2.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
37 GF / 57 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
70 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
2.59
2.59
Average Goals Conceded
2.04
15
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
19
4.78
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 22 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 27 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic FC Cincinnati
7 Wins 12
3 Draws 7
12 Losses 8
37 Goals For 70
57 Goals Against 55
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 2.59
2.59 Avg Goals Conceded 2.04
15 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 19
14 Over 3.5 17
2 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 2
4.78 Shots On Goal 5.68
11.78 Total Shots 13.09
3.78 Corners 4.27
46.5% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FC Cincinnati's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cincinnati. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 20 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, while the 30:47 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), T. Spicer (2 goals), G. Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 6 in the standings with 26 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 45:44 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 5 times, FC Cincinnati won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-4-2 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-3
Missing players: Orlando City SC 3, FC Cincinnati 1
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 5, draws 5, FC Cincinnati wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)