ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio 9 de Mayo
Referee: Yerson Zambrano, Ecuador
Orense SC
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Miguel Parrales
Orense SC
27'
D. Guagua · Assist: J. Viacava
Independiente del Valle
VAR
30'
Darwin Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🟨
43'
Renny Jaramillo
Orense SC
🟨
43'
Ronald Briones
Independiente del Valle
🟨
45+1'
Darwin Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
R. Jaramilo ↔ E. Pluas
Orense SC
🔄
46'
E. Pata ↔ A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
R. Schunke ↔ M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
53'
M. Parrales · Assist: M. Bermudez
Orense SC
🔄
54'
M. Parrales ↔ A. Mena
Orense SC
🔄
57'
D. Guagua ↔ J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
57'
R. Briones ↔ H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
61'
H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
63'
M. Perello · Assist: J. Angulo
Independiente del Valle
64'
S. Vasquez · Assist: E. Pluas
Orense SC
🟨
74'
Pedro Velasco
Orense SC
🔄
76'
M. Bermudez ↔ E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
Orense SC
🔄
79'
M. Perello ↔ E. Quintero
Independiente del Valle
🟨
81'
Juan Viacava
Independiente del Valle
🔄
83'
G. Rostagno ↔ C. Ortiz
Orense SC
🟨
90+2'
Agustin Herrera
Orense SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77.9%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orense SC Win 18.2%
Draw 3.9%
Independiente del Valle Win 77.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orense SC1.11
Independiente del Valle1.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orense SC Orense SC
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
64 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
2.29
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1
14
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
18
3.81
Shots on Goal
6.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orense SC Orense SC 21 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 28 matches
Orense SC Statistic Independiente del Valle
7 Wins 21
5 Draws 2
9 Losses 5
25 Goals For 64
29 Goals Against 28
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 2.29
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1
14 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 24
12 Over 2.5 18
3 Over 3.5 12
4 Clean Sheets 11
5 Failed To Score 4
3.81 Shots On Goal 6.07
9.57 Total Shots 17.78
3.43 Corners 6.22
47.2% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Orense SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independiente del Valle. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 46 points while Orense SC sit 11 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orense SC expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 23 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), A. Herrera (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 46 points from 19 games, Independiente del Valle bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 15 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, with a 43:19 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Emerson Pata (6 goals), D. Reasco (5 goals), C. González (5 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Sornoza (3 assists), A. Rodríguez (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 9 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orense SC won 1 times, Independiente del Valle won 10 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:26 from Orense SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Orense SC 5-3-2 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Orense SC wins 1, draws 4, Independiente del Valle wins 10
Stats
Orense SC Orense SC
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
11 Corner Kicks 4
13 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 0
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Goal 6
9 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
419 Total passes 309
341 Passes accurate 227
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Orense SC
Formation
Independiente del Valle
J. Ortiz
J. Ortiz
P. Velasco
P. Velasco
A. Lorenzo
A. Lorenzo
S. Quinonez
S. Quinonez
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
S. Vasquez
S. Vasquez
G. Rostagno
G. Rostagno
R. Jaramilo
R. Jaramilo
A. Herrera
A. Herrera
M. Parrales
M. Parrales
M. Bermudez
🎯
M. Bermudez
A. Quintana
A. Quintana
J. Espinoza
J. Espinoza
R. Schunke
R. Schunke
J. Viacava
🎯
J. Viacava
G. Cortez
G. Cortez
J. Mendez
J. Mendez
M. Perello
M. Perello
D. Guagua
D. Guagua
R. Briones
R. Briones
E. Pata
E. Pata
J. Angulo
🎯
J. Angulo
Orense SC 4-3-3
Starting XI
22
J. Ortiz
G
31
P. Velasco
🟨 74'
D
5
A. Lorenzo
D
4
S. Quinonez
D
15
B. Caicedo
D
7
S. Vasquez
⚽ 64'
M
21
G. Rostagno
↓ 83'
M
25
R. Jaramilo
↓ 46' 🟨 43'
M
11
A. Herrera
🟨 90+2'
F
10
M. Parrales
⚽ 53' ↓ 54' 🟨 -5'
F
19
M. Bermudez
🎯 53' ↓ 76'
Substitutes
12
R. Silva
G
13
A. Mena
↑ 54'
F
6
S. Callegari
D
54
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
↑ 76'
M
24
G. Achilier
D
14
E. Pluas
🎯 64' ↑ 46'
M
2
B. Quinonez
D
51
C. Ortiz
↑ 83'
50
E. Hernandez
M
33
D. Quintero
F
53
L. Garces
F
65
S. Mairongo
M
Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
A. Quintana
G
4
J. Espinoza
D
5
R. Schunke
↓ 46'
D
23
J. Viacava
🎯 27' 🟨 81'
D
15
G. Cortez
D
32
J. Mendez
M
11
M. Perello
⚽ 63' ↓ 79'
M
55
D. Guagua
⚽ 27' ↓ 57'
16
R. Briones
↓ 57' 🟨 43'
M
31
E. Pata
↓ 46'
M
50
J. Angulo
🎯 63'
F
Substitutes
12
E. Bores
G
10
J. Sornoza
↑ 57'
M
99
D. Reasco
F
17
A. Rodriguez
↑ 46'
F
33
A. Velasco
D
13
D. A. Romero Padilla
D
19
L. Loor
D
28
H. Quintana
⚽ 61' ↑ 57'
M
14
M. Carabajal
↑ 46'
D
6
J. Alcivar
M
52
Y. Vasquez
F
56
E. Quintero
↑ 79'
M
Last matches: Orense SC
01.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
0
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
20.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
0
D
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
19.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
W
15.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
02.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
22.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
20.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
6
1
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
23.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
H2H: Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle
26.07.26
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
04.04.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
2
0
L
23.11.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
0
0
D
17.10.25
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
17.08.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
2
1
L
27.04.25
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
01.12.24
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
0
D
02.06.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
1
0
L
25.11.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
2
2
D
11.06.23
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
06.08.22
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
19.03.22
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
1
1
D
25.07.21
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
L
21.02.21
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
18.12.20
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
4
0
L
Last matches: Orense SC
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
19.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
W
10.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
H2H at home: Orense SC
26.07.26
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
17.10.25
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
27.04.25
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
01.12.24
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
0
D
11.06.23
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
06.08.22
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
21.02.21
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
0
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
2
0
W
H2H away: Independiente del Valle
26.07.26
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
W
17.10.25
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
W
27.04.25
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
W
01.12.24
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
0
D
11.06.23
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
W
06.08.22
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
1
2
W
21.02.21
H2H
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 1 3 56:22 34 58
W W W W W
2 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
3 23 11 5 7 30:23 7 38
W W W L W
4 23 11 5 7 26:25 1 38
W L L W L
5 23 9 8 6 24:18 6 35
D L L W D
6 23 10 5 8 23:18 5 35
W W D L L
7 23 8 8 7 24:22 2 32
D W D W D
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
11 23 7 7 9 20:25 -5 28
L D D W D
12 23 7 5 11 27:35 -8 26
L L W L L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 23 7 7 9 19:28 -9 25
L L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 14:23 -9 23
L L L W W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs