UKRAINE PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
KSK Nika
Referee: E. Tsibulko
Oleksandria
Match Timeline
Zorya Luhansk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Sallieu Bah
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
30'
Danil Skorko
Oleksandria
🟨
45'
Juninho
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
46'
F. Zadorozhnyi ↔ A. Slesar
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
46'
I. Gorbach ↔ P. Budkivsky
Zorya Luhansk
55'
P. Budkivsky
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
62'
B. Castillo ↔ D. Kremchanin
Oleksandria
🔄
62'
B. Butko ↔ M. Rodrigues
Oleksandria
🔄
64'
R. Verley ↔ D. Popara
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
64'
S. Bah ↔ P. Micin
Zorya Luhansk
75'
P. Micin · Assist: P. Budkivsky
Zorya Luhansk
77'
T. Cara · Assist: D. Kremchanin
Oleksandria
🔄
79'
J. Basic ↔ G. Eskinja
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
80'
S. Buletsa ↔ D. Myshnyov
Oleksandria
🔄
84'
D. Vashchenko ↔ D. Shostak
Oleksandria
🟨
85'
Danil Skorko
Oleksandria
🟥
85'
Danil Skorko
Oleksandria
🟨
90+4'
Miguel Campos
Oleksandria
🟨
90+3'
Miguel Campos
Oleksandria
🟥
90+4'
Miguel Campos
Oleksandria

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 20.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
20.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Oleksandria Win 22.2%
Draw 20%
Zorya Luhansk Win 57.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Oleksandria0.91
Zorya Luhansk1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Oleksandria Oleksandria
WWDLW
19 GF / 57 GA
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
WLDWL
38 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.68
Average Goals Scored
1.41
2.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
11
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
14
1.35
Shots on Goal
2.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Oleksandria Oleksandria 28 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 27 matches
Oleksandria Statistic Zorya Luhansk
2 Wins 10
7 Draws 9
19 Losses 8
19 Goals For 38
57 Goals Against 34
0.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
2.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
11 BTTS Yes 16
22 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 10
1 Clean Sheets 8
16 Failed To Score 6
1.35 Shots On Goal 2.42
3.92 Total Shots 7.04
1.85 Corners 3.08
23.5% Ball Possession 30.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Zorya Luhansk's more proactive style and Oleksandria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Zorya Luhansk. Oleksandria have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Oleksandria expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Zorya Luhansk in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Zorya Luhansk having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 39 points while Oleksandria sit 15 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Oleksandria Analysis

With 13 points from 27 games and a place of 15, Oleksandria still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats with a 19:54 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Tedi Cara (4 goals), Hussayn Touati (3 goals), Bryan Castillo (2 goals), with creative support from S. Buletsa (4 assists), Tedi Cara (2 assists), Hussayn Touati (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Zorya Luhansk Analysis

Zorya Luhansk sit 8 with 39 points after 27 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 38:34 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Budkivsky (11 goals), N. Andjusic (7 goals), Roman Vantukh (4 goals), with creative support from A. Slesar (4 assists), Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior (4 assists), N. Andjusic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Oleksandria won 3 times, Zorya Luhansk won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:22 from Oleksandria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80%)
Predicted formations: Oleksandria 5-4-1 / Zorya Luhansk 4-4-2
H2H summary: Oleksandria wins 3, draws 6, Zorya Luhansk wins 6
Stats
Oleksandria Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 7
15 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 2
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Goal 9
2 Shots off Goal 5
0 Blocked Shots 4
5 Shots insidebox 8
2 Shots outsidebox 10
7 Goalkeeper Saves 3
233 Total passes 389
176 Passes accurate 332
0.94 expected_goals 2.41
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 2 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Oleksandria
Formation
Zorya Luhansk
N. Makarenko
N. Makarenko
B. Butko
B. Butko
M. Ferreira
M. Ferreira
J. Behiratche
J. Behiratche
D. Skorko
D. Skorko
D. Vashchenko
D. Vashchenko
S. Buletsa
S. Buletsa
D. Vlasyuk
D. Vlasyuk
T. Cara
T. Cara
B. Castillo
B. Castillo
P. Yade
P. Yade
O. Saputin
O. Saputin
N. Malysh
N. Malysh
Jordan
Jordan
J. Basic
J. Basic
Juninho
Juninho
I. Gorbach
I. Gorbach
S. Bah
S. Bah
K. Dryshlyuk
K. Dryshlyuk
D. Jelavic
D. Jelavic
F. Zadorozhnyi
F. Zadorozhnyi
R. Verley
R. Verley
Oleksandria 3-4-3
Starting XI
72
N. Makarenko
G
91
B. Butko
↓ 62'
D
26
M. Ferreira
50
J. Behiratche
D
22
D. Skorko
🟨 30' 🟨 85' 🟥 85'
M
20
D. Vashchenko
↓ 84'
M
10
S. Buletsa
↓ 80'
M
90
D. Vlasyuk
M
27
T. Cara
⚽ 77'
F
99
B. Castillo
↓ 62'
F
37
P. Yade
F
Substitutes
1
V. Dolgyi
G
49
M. Amaral
M
97
N. Prokopenko
D
79
D. Khmelovskyy
M
40
D. Chernysh
M
71
D. Shostak
↑ 84'
M
9
D. Myshnyov
↑ 80'
M
24
H. Touati
M
11
A. Shulyanskyi
M
77
D. Kremchanin
🎯 77' ↑ 62'
F
67
M. Rodrigues
↑ 62'
D
Zorya Luhansk 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
O. Saputin
G
23
N. Malysh
D
55
Jordan
D
21
J. Basic
↓ 79'
D
10
Juninho
🟨 45'
D
11
I. Gorbach
↓ 46'
M
88
S. Bah
↓ 64'
8
K. Dryshlyuk
M
27
D. Jelavic
M
17
F. Zadorozhnyi
↓ 46'
F
70
R. Verley
↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
12
M. Turbayevskyi
G
31
V. Kosivskyi
G
44
I. Perduta
D
4
G. Eskinja
↑ 79'
D
5
A. Janjic
D
47
R. Vantukh
D
6
D. Popara
↑ 64'
F
22
P. Micin
⚽ 75' ↑ 64'
M
9
A. Slesar
↑ 46'
M
28
P. Budkivsky
⚽ 55' 🎯 75' ↑ 46'
F
Last matches: Oleksandria
18.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
1
2
L
08.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Inhulets
2
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Chornomorets
2
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
SK Poltava
5
2
W
09.06.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Livyi Bereh
0
1
L
05.06.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Livyi Bereh
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Kryvbas KR
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Ruh Lviv
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Polessya
1
2
L
02.05.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
0
3
L
27.04.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Veres Rivne
0
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Karpaty
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Oleksandria
SK Poltava
3
3
D
19.03.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Dynamo Kyiv
0
5
L
14.03.26
Pre
Oleksandria
LNZ Cherkasy
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Dinamo Batumi
1
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Rustavi
1
0
W
Last matches: Zorya Luhansk
23.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Göztepe
1
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Grimsby
1
1
D
15.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Konyaspor
1
2
L
08.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Slovácko
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
HNK Gorica
1
2
L
30.06.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Shkendija
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
2
1
W
18.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Polessya
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
27.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
23.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Dynamo Kyiv
1
3
L
12.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Obolon'-Brovar
3
3
D
28.03.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Kolos Kovalivka
2
2
D
24.03.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Kudrivka
2
4
L
15.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
SK Poltava
4
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kryvbas KR
1
3
L
H2H: Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk
12.05.26
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
24.11.25
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
2
2
D
23.02.25
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
2
1
W
17.08.24
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
1
2
W
03.03.24
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
0
D
18.08.23
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
0
0
D
28.05.23
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
18.11.22
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
4
1
L
21.09.22
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
1
1
D
29.11.21
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
25.07.21
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
0
1
W
23.06.21
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
3
3
D
09.05.21
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
2
1
L
21.04.21
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
13.12.20
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
Last matches: Oleksandria
08.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Inhulets
2
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Chornomorets
2
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Oleksandria
SK Poltava
5
2
W
05.06.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Livyi Bereh
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Kryvbas KR
1
1
D
02.05.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
0
3
L
20.04.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Veres Rivne
0
3
L
19.03.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Dynamo Kyiv
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Oleksandria
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Dinamo Batumi
1
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Rustavi
1
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Hobro
2
2
D
07.02.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Neftchi
1
2
L
29.01.26
Fri
Oleksandria
FC Fredericia
0
0
D
26.01.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Llapi
3
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Shkendija
1
1
D
16.01.26
Fri
Oleksandria
Zira
3
2
W
12.12.25
Pre
Oleksandria
Kudrivka
1
1
D
30.11.25
Pre
Oleksandria
Ruh Lviv
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pre
Oleksandria
Polessya
0
3
L
H2H at home: Oleksandria
12.05.26
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
23.02.25
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
2
1
W
03.03.24
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
0
D
28.05.23
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
29.11.21
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
21.04.21
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
13.12.20
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
Last matches: Zorya Luhansk
08.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Slovácko
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
HNK Gorica
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Dynamo Kyiv
1
3
L
05.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Obolon'-Brovar
3
3
D
15.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kryvbas KR
1
3
L
23.02.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kudrivka
2
2
D
29.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Rapid Wien II
5
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Lokomotiv Sofia
3
3
D
21.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Miedz Legnica
2
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Radnik Surdulica
1
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
LNZ Cherkasy
0
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Polessya
0
2
L
08.11.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
3
1
W
24.10.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Veres Rivne
0
0
D
03.10.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
1
W
22.09.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
1
L
29.08.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
SK Poltava
4
1
W
H2H away: Zorya Luhansk
12.05.26
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
W
23.02.25
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
2
1
L
03.03.24
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
0
D
28.05.23
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
W
29.11.21
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
W
21.04.21
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
13.12.20
H2H
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
W

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga