Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away or Draw |
72.5%
|
1.19 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
1.64 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
1.73 | |
| Corners O/U | Under 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
4.75 | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
6.50 |
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 27.5%
Draw 26.5%
FS Jelgava Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.23
FS Jelgava1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United
WWDLW
25 GF / 68 GA
FS Jelgava
WLDWL
30 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
0.97
2.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
17
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Ogre United
27 matches
FS Jelgava
31 matches
| Ogre United | Statistic | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 7 |
| 5 | Draws | 7 |
| 19 | Losses | 17 |
| 25 | Goals For | 30 |
| 68 | Goals Against | 52 |
| 0.93 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.97 |
| 2.52 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.68 |
| 17 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 24 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 12 |
| 13 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 1 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 15 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 0 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Final Verdict
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FS Jelgava. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
Ogre United Analysis
With 14 points from 25 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 24:65, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
FS Jelgava Analysis
With 25 points from 26 games and a place of 7, FS Jelgava still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 25:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
H2H Analysis
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 1 times, FS Jelgava won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Ogre United's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.
1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.5%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 1, draws 0, FS Jelgava wins 1
Last matches: Ogre United
09.08.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
27.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
2
2
D
19.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
Last matches: FS Jelgava
09.08.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
0
1
L
01.08.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
26.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
0
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
H2H: Ogre United vs FS Jelgava
17.06.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
W
27.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
Last matches: Ogre United
19.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ogre United
27.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
Last matches: FS Jelgava
01.08.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Nõmme United
4
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Panevėžys
0
2
L
H2H away: FS Jelgava
27.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
MATCH WINNER
Home
3.72
Draw
3.56
Away
1.81
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home
3.92
Draw
2.55
Away
2.16
ASIAN HANDICAP
Home -1.25
7.60
Away -1.25
1.03
Home -1
7.10
Away -1
1.04
Home -0.75
4.60
Away -0.75
1.13
Home -0.25
3.08
Away -0.25
1.28
Home +0
2.70
Away +0
1.36
Home +0.25
2.14
Away +0.25
1.57
Home +0.75
1.66
Away +0.75
2.05
Home +1
1.44
Away +1
2.53
Home +2
1.08
Away +2
5.70
Home -1.5
8.10
Away -1.5
1.02
Home +1.25
1.33
Away +1.25
2.83
Home +1.5
1.27
Away +1.5
3.14
Home +1.75
1.17
Away +1.75
4.00
Home +2.25
1.06
Away +2.25
6.05
Home +2.5
1.05
Away +2.5
6.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5
1.19
Under 1.5
3.74
Over 1.75
1.25
Under 1.75
3.28
Over 2.0
1.31
Under 2.0
2.92
Over 2.25
1.54
Under 2.25
2.30
Over 2.5
1.73
Under 2.5
1.97
Over 2.75
1.92
Under 2.75
1.77
Over 3.5
2.78
Under 3.5
1.34
Over 0.5
1.03
Under 0.5
11.30
Over 1.0
1.03
Under 1.0
8.40
Over 1.25
1.10
Under 1.25
5.15
Over 3.0
2.21
Under 3.0
1.53
Over 4.5
5.15
Under 4.5
1.10
Over 3.25
2.49
Under 3.25
1.42
Over 3.75
3.34
Under 3.75
1.24
Over 4.0
4.45
Under 4.0
1.14
Over 4.25
4.80
Under 4.25
1.11
Over 4.75
6.54
Under 4.75
1.05
Over 5.0
9.30
Under 5.0
1.00
Over 5.5
12.00
Under 5.5
1.04
GOALS OVER/UNDER FIRST HALF
Over 1.5
2.53
Under 1.5
1.42
Over 1.75
3.14
Under 1.75
1.27
Over 2.0
4.90
Under 2.0
1.11
Over 2.25
5.50
Under 2.25
1.08
Over 2.5
6.05
Under 2.5
1.06
Over 3.5
11.50
Under 3.5
1.02
Over 0.5
1.31
Under 0.5
2.97
Over 0.75
1.45
Under 0.75
2.52
Over 1.0
1.69
Under 1.0
2.02
Over 1.25
2.11
Under 1.25
1.60
HT/FT DOUBLE
Home/Draw
15.00
Home/Away
24.00
Draw/Away
4.75
Draw/Draw
5.60
Home/Home
6.20
Draw/Home
8.60
Away/Home
34.00
Away/Draw
14.70
Away/Away
2.71
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Yes
1.64
No
2.08
EXACT SCORE
1:0
10.00
2:0
15.00
2:1
10.00
3:0
41.00
3:1
23.00
3:2
26.00
4:0
100.00
4:1
90.00
0:0
11.50
1:1
6.00
2:2
10.00
0:1
6.50
0:2
7.50
0:3
13.00
1:2
6.50
1:3
11.00
2:3
18.00
3:3
41.00
0:4
26.00
1:4
23.00
2:4
41.00
4:2
90.00
0:5
80.00
0:6
100.00
1:5
70.00
1:6
100.00
2:5
100.00
2:6
100.00
3:4
90.00
5:0
100.00
5:1
100.00
5:2
100.00
6:0
100.00
6:1
100.00
6:2
100.00
4:3
100.00
3:5
100.00
3:6
100.00
4:5
100.00
4:6
100.00
5:3
100.00
5:4
100.00
5:6
100.00
6:3
100.00
6:4
100.00
6:5
100.00
4:4
100.00
7:0
100.00
7:1
100.00
7:2
100.00
7:3
100.00
7:4
100.00
7:5
100.00
7:6
100.00
8:0
100.00
8:1
100.00
8:2
100.00
8:3
100.00
8:4
100.00
8:5
100.00
8:6
100.00
8:7
100.00
9:0
100.00
9:1
100.00
9:2
100.00
9:3
100.00
9:4
100.00
9:5
100.00
9:6
100.00
9:7
100.00
9:8
100.00
10:0
100.00
10:1
100.00
10:2
100.00
10:3
100.00
10:4
100.00
10:5
100.00
10:6
100.00
10:7
100.00
10:8
100.00
10:9
100.00
5:5
100.00
6:6
100.00
7:7
100.00
8:8
100.00
9:9
100.00
10:10
100.00
0:7
100.00
0:8
100.00
0:9
100.00
0:10
100.00
1:7
100.00
1:8
100.00
1:9
100.00
1:10
100.00
2:7
100.00
2:8
100.00
2:9
100.00
2:10
100.00
3:7
100.00
3:8
100.00
3:9
100.00
3:10
100.00
4:7
100.00
4:8
100.00
4:9
100.00
4:10
100.00
5:7
100.00
5:8
100.00
5:9
100.00
5:10
100.00
6:7
100.00
6:8
100.00
6:9
100.00
6:10
100.00
7:8
100.00
7:9
100.00
7:10
100.00
8:9
100.00
8:10
100.00
9:10
100.00
HIGHEST SCORING HALF
Draw
3.55
1st Half
2.97
2nd Half
1.99
DOUBLE CHANCE
Home/Draw
1.81
Home/Away
1.21
Draw/Away
1.19
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home
4.38
Draw
2.18
Away
2.37
TOTAL - HOME
Over 1.5
2.89
Under 1.5
1.34
Over 2.5
7.30
Under 2.5
1.03
Over 1
1.88
Under 1
1.80
Over 2
6.10
Under 2
1.06
Over 0.5
1.37
Under 0.5
2.71
TOTAL - AWAY
Over 1.5
1.81
Under 1.5
1.87
Over 2.5
3.50
Under 2.5
1.22
Over 3.5
7.00
Under 3.5
1.07
Over 1
1.26
Under 1
3.34
Over 2
2.68
Under 2
1.39
Over 3
6.90
Under 3
1.04
Over 0.5
1.13
Under 0.5
4.70
ASIAN HANDICAP FIRST HALF
Home -1
9.90
Away -1
1.01
Home -0.75
5.70
Away -0.75
1.08
Home -0.25
3.20
Away -0.25
1.27
Home +0
2.47
Away +0
1.44
Home +0.25
1.74
Away +0.25
1.91
Home +0.75
1.29
Away +0.75
3.05
Home +1
1.10
Away +1
5.20
Home +1.5
1.05
Away +1.5
6.65
DOUBLE CHANCE - FIRST HALF
Home/Draw
1.44
Home/Away
1.51
Draw/Away
1.13
ODD/EVEN
Odd
1.82
Even
1.82
ODD/EVEN - FIRST HALF
Odd
1.97
Even
1.69
HOME ODD/EVEN
Odd
2.01
Even
1.67
GOALS OVER/UNDER - SECOND HALF
Over 1.5
1.94
Under 1.5
1.75
Over 1.75
2.31
Under 1.75
1.53
Over 2.0
3.04
Under 2.0
1.30
Over 2.25
3.50
Under 2.25
1.22
Over 2.5
3.95
Under 2.5
1.17
Over 3.5
11.00
Under 3.5
1.04
Over 0.5
1.16
Under 0.5
4.10
Over 0.75
1.23
Under 0.75
3.50
Over 1.0
1.33
Under 1.0
2.88
Over 1.25
1.65
Under 1.25
2.08
CORRECT SCORE - FIRST HALF
1:0
5.75
2:0
22.00
2:1
27.00
3:0
80.00
3:1
100.00
3:2
100.00
4:0
100.00
4:1
100.00
0:0
2.97
1:1
7.10
2:2
50.00
0:1
3.70
0:2
10.00
0:3
34.00
1:2
18.00
1:3
55.00
2:3
100.00
3:3
100.00
0:4
100.00
1:4
100.00
2:4
100.00
4:2
100.00
0:5
100.00
1:5
100.00
2:5
100.00
3:4
100.00
5:0
100.00
5:1
100.00
5:2
100.00
4:3
100.00
3:5
100.00
4:5
100.00
5:3
100.00
5:4
100.00
4:4
100.00
5:5
100.00
DOUBLE CHANCE - SECOND HALF
Home/Draw
1.53
Home/Away
1.37
Draw/Away
1.16
BOTH TEAMS SCORE - FIRST HALF
Yes
4.05
No
1.19
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - SECOND HALF
Yes
2.97
No
1.33
AWAY ODD/EVEN
Odd
1.86
Even
1.78
CORRECT SCORE - SECOND HALF
1:0
6.30
2:0
19.50
2:1
19.50
3:0
70.00
3:1
70.00
3:2
100.00
4:0
100.00
4:1
100.00
0:0
4.10
1:1
6.45
2:2
38.00
0:1
4.15
0:2
8.60
0:3
25.00
1:2
13.20
1:3
38.00
2:3
85.00
3:3
100.00
0:4
75.00
1:4
100.00
2:4
100.00
4:2
100.00
0:5
100.00
1:5
100.00
2:5
100.00
3:4
100.00
5:0
100.00
5:1
100.00
5:2
100.00
4:3
100.00
3:5
100.00
4:5
100.00
5:3
100.00
5:4
100.00
4:4
100.00
5:5
100.00
ODD/EVEN - SECOND HALF
Odd
1.90
Even
1.75
ASIAN HANDICAP (2ND HALF)
Home -1
8.40
Away -1
1.03
Home -0.75
5.10
Away -0.75
1.10
Home -0.25
3.12
Away -0.25
1.28
Home +0
2.50
Away +0
1.43
Home +0.25
1.85
Away +0.25
1.79
Home +0.75
1.38
Away +0.75
2.62
Home +1
1.17
Away +1
3.94
Home +1.5
1.10
Away +1.5
5.10
HOME TEAM TOTAL GOALS(1ST HALF)
Over 1.5
7.80
Under 1.5
1.04
Over 1
5.50
Under 1
1.10
Over 0.5
2.25
Under 0.5
1.57
AWAY TEAM TOTAL GOALS(1ST HALF)
Over 1.5
4.50
Under 1.5
1.15
Over 1
3.00
Under 1
1.33
Over 0.5
1.71
Under 0.5
2.02
HOME TEAM TOTAL GOALS(2ND HALF)
Over 1.5
5.70
Under 1.5
1.09
Over 1
3.90
Under 1
1.20
Over 0.5
1.90
Under 0.5
1.79
AWAY TEAM TOTAL GOALS(2ND HALF)
Over 1.5
3.30
Under 1.5
1.27
Over 2.5
9.10
Under 2.5
1.02
Over 1
2.18
Under 1
1.61
Over 2
7.50
Under 2
1.04
Over 0.5
1.49
Under 0.5
2.43
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home
3.72
Draw
3.56
Away
1.81
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home
4.38
Draw
2.18
Away
2.37
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home
3.92
Draw
2.55
Away
2.16
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5
1.19
Under 1.5
3.74
Over 1.75
1.25
Under 1.75
3.28
Over 2.0
1.31
Under 2.0
2.92
Over 2.25
1.54
Under 2.25
2.30
Over 2.5
1.73
Under 2.5
1.97
Over 2.75
1.92
Under 2.75
1.77
Over 3.5
2.78
Under 3.5
1.34
Over 0.5
1.03
Under 0.5
11.30
Over 1.0
1.03
Under 1.0
8.40
Over 1.25
1.10
Under 1.25
5.15
Over 3.0
2.21
Under 3.0
1.53
Over 4.5
5.15
Under 4.5
1.10
Over 3.25
2.49
Under 3.25
1.42
Over 3.75
3.34
Under 3.75
1.24
Over 4.0
4.45
Under 4.0
1.14
Over 4.25
4.80
Under 4.25
1.11
Over 4.75
6.54
Under 4.75
1.05
Over 5.0
9.30
Under 5.0
1.00
Over 5.5
12.00
Under 5.5
1.04
MATCH WINNER
Home
3.70
Draw
3.45
Away
1.80
HOME/AWAY
Home
2.70
Away
1.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5
1.19
Under 1.5
3.85
Over 2.5
1.64
Under 2.5
2.02
Over 3.5
2.55
Under 3.5
1.41
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Yes
1.56
No
2.12
DOUBLE CHANCE
Home/Draw
1.77
Home/Away
1.20
Draw/Away
1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home
3.70
Draw
3.45
Away
1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5
1.19
Under 1.5
3.85
Over 2.5
1.64
Under 2.5
2.02
Over 3.5
2.55
Under 3.5
1.41
Standings
Virsliga
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 62:17 | 45 | 65 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 25 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 76:21 | 55 | 64 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 4 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:31 | 2 | 36 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33:37 | -4 | 34 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 26:37 | -11 | 27 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 7 |
FS Jelgava
Away
|
26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 25:44 | -19 | 25 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
| 8 | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 18:47 | -29 | 21 |
L
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 40:51 | -11 | 20 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 10 |
Ogre United
Home
|
25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24:65 | -41 | 14 |
L
D
L
W
L
|