LATVIA VIRSLIGA
22.08.2026 14:00
Referee: A. Griscenko
Ogre United
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
M. Hasek
FS Jelgava
15'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🟨
33'
N. Parfjonovs
Ogre United
🟨
34'
T. Rataj
FS Jelgava
🟨
43'
K. Alekseiciks
FS Jelgava
🟨
45'
M. Marusii
Ogre United
45'
M. Kalnins · Assist: N. Parfjonovs
Ogre United
🟨
60'
M. Hasek
FS Jelgava
🔄
63'
A. Marchuk ↔ R. Ziemelis
Ogre United
🔄
65'
R. Becers ↔ G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
🔄
65'
T. Rataj ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🔄
74'
D. Vejkrigers ↔ J. Grinbergs
Ogre United
🔄
74'
I. Pulis ↔ J. Fokam
Ogre United
🔄
79'
M. Pudil ↔ A. Petersons
FS Jelgava
🔄
79'
F. Hasek ↔ E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
85'
M. Kalnins ↔ M. Ivulans
Ogre United
86'
M. Hasek · Assist: K. Alekseiciks
FS Jelgava
88'
A. Kangars · Assist: G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava

Ogre United vs FS Jelgava Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.5%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 27.5%
Draw 26.5%
FS Jelgava Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.23
FS Jelgava1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
25 GF / 68 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
30 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
0.97
2.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
17
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 27 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 31 matches
Ogre United Statistic FS Jelgava
3 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
19 Losses 17
25 Goals For 30
68 Goals Against 52
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
2.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
17 BTTS Yes 13
24 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 12
13 Over 3.5 8
1 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FS Jelgava. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ogre United Analysis

With 14 points from 25 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 24:65, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

With 25 points from 26 games and a place of 7, FS Jelgava still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 25:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 1 times, FS Jelgava won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Ogre United's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.5%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 1, draws 0, FS Jelgava wins 2

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L