LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: V. Mordatenko
Ogre United
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
R. Skrebels
BFC Daugavpils
17'
A. Traore · Assist: D. Kivinda
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
45+4'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🔄
46'
E. Evelons ↔ V. Mashchenko
Ogre United
54'
D. Kivinda · Assist: A. Traore
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
58'
A. Traore
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
62'
M. Lormanis ↔ D. Vejkrigers
Ogre United
🔄
62'
M. Kalnins ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
🔄
74'
J. Yakubu ↔ Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
74'
D. Kivinda ↔ D. Ayebadiepreye
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
74'
A. Marchuk ↔ M. Ivulans
Ogre United
77'
A. Traore · Assist: Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
82'
L. Estevez Fernandez ↔ M. Pacepko
Ogre United
84'
E. Pinaskins · Assist: A. Traore
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
87'
E. Pinaskins ↔ A. Saveljevs
BFC Daugavpils

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
69.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 30.9%
Draw 21.7%
BFC Daugavpils Win 47.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.14
BFC Daugavpils1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
22 GF / 58 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
32 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.07
2.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
15
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 24 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 30 matches
Ogre United Statistic BFC Daugavpils
3 Wins 9
4 Draws 6
17 Losses 15
22 Goals For 32
58 Goals Against 44
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
2.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
15 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward BFC Daugavpils. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. BFC Daugavpils carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 27 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ogre United Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Ogre United have collected 13 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 15 losses, while the 21:55 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Placed 5 with 27 points from 22 outings, BFC Daugavpils continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 25:29 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 0 times, BFC Daugavpils won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:12 from Ogre United's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.3%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 0, draws 0, BFC Daugavpils wins 4
Last matches: Ogre United
09.08.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
27.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
2
2
D
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
08.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
2
0
W
01.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
26.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
H2H: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
14.08.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
L
19.07.26
H2H
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
21.05.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
L
07.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
L
Last matches: Ogre United
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ogre United
19.07.26
H2H
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
26.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
07.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Šiauliai
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
28.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
FK Trakai
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Panevėžys
0
1
L
10.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
1
0
W
H2H away: BFC Daugavpils
19.07.26
H2H
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L