KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.1%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nzoia Sugar Win 44.8%
Draw 18.9%
Kibera Black Stars Win 36.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nzoia Sugar0.93
Kibera Black Stars0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WWDLW
36 GF / 36 GA
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars
WLDWL
32 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
0.86
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 37 matches
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars 37 matches
Nzoia Sugar Statistic Kibera Black Stars
11 Wins 15
14 Draws 8
12 Losses 14
36 Goals For 32
36 Goals Against 32
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
12 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 1
15 Clean Sheets 14
18 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Kibera Black Stars. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kibera Black Stars having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

So far, Nzoia Sugar have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 47 points from 37 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 14 draws, and 12 losses, while the 36:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kibera Black Stars Analysis

Kibera Black Stars sit 9 with 53 points after 37 league matches. The record of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 32:32 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Nzoia Sugar won 2 times, Kibera Black Stars won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from Nzoia Sugar's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
H2H summary: Nzoia Sugar wins 2, draws 1, Kibera Black Stars wins 1