KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 63%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
59.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
63%
-
Probability Distribution
Nzoia Sugar Win 52.2%
Draw 17.5%
Darajani Gogo Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nzoia Sugar1.06
Darajani Gogo0.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WWDLW
27 GF / 22 GA
Darajani Gogo Darajani Gogo
WLDWL
19 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
0.68
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
9
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 28 matches
Darajani Gogo Darajani Gogo 28 matches
Nzoia Sugar Statistic Darajani Gogo
9 Wins 7
12 Draws 6
7 Losses 15
27 Goals For 19
22 Goals Against 34
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 0.68
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
9 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 4
14 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Nzoia Sugar's more proactive style and Darajani Gogo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Darajani Gogo. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Darajani Gogo having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nzoia Sugar have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

With 39 points from 28 games and a place of 11, Nzoia Sugar still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 27:22, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Darajani Gogo Analysis

Darajani Gogo sit 16 with 27 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 6 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 19:34 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Nzoia Sugar won 3 times, Darajani Gogo won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:4 from Nzoia Sugar's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.5%)
H2H summary: Nzoia Sugar wins 3, draws 0, Darajani Gogo wins 1
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
Last matches: Darajani Gogo
13.06.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
3
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Kisumu All Stars
2
1
W
01.06.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
28.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
MOFA
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Vihiga United FC
1
0
W
16.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Naivas
0
3
L
09.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Equity Bank
0
4
L
03.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
MCF
0
0
D
11.04.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
05.04.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Fortune Sacco
0
4
L
29.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Soy United
0
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
3K
1
1
D
14.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Talanta
1
1
D
07.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
L
01.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Migori Youth
1
2
L
20.02.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Mombasa Elite
1
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Mwatate United
2
2
D
31.01.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Talanta
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Fortune Sacco
2
4
L
H2H: Nzoia Sugar vs Darajani Gogo
19.04.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.01.26
H2H
Darajani Gogo
Nzoia Sugar
1
4
W
01.06.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
13.10.24
H2H
Darajani Gogo
Nzoia Sugar
3
1
L
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
18.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
0
2
L
22.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
1
0
W
12.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
0
0
D
03.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
09.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
2
2
D
26.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
2
1
W
H2H at home: Nzoia Sugar
19.04.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
01.06.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
Last matches: Darajani Gogo
13.06.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
3
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
16.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Naivas
0
3
L
03.05.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
05.04.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Fortune Sacco
0
4
L
29.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Soy United
0
2
L
14.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Talanta
1
1
D
01.03.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Migori Youth
1
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Mwatate United
2
2
D
18.01.26
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
21.12.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
MCF
1
0
W
17.12.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Equity Bank
0
2
L
07.12.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
23.11.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
10.11.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Mombasa Elite
1
2
L
03.11.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
25.10.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
MOFA
0
0
D
05.10.25
Sup
Darajani Gogo
3K
0
1
L
H2H away: Darajani Gogo
19.04.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
L
01.06.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
1
0
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation