CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas
Referee: F. Jimenez Lazo
Nublense
Match Timeline
Universidad de Concepcion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Gabriel Graciani
Nublense
🔄
20'
G. Avalos ↔ I. Tapia
Nublense
🟨
21'
Sebastián Valencia
Nublense
25'
L. Reyes · Assist: G. Graciani
Nublense
VAR
29'
Ignacio Jeraldino
Nublense
🟨
29'
Bastián Ubal
Universidad de Concepcion
31'
M. Plaza
Nublense
🔄
57'
P. Parra ↔ L. Rojas
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
64'
G. Graciani ↔ D. Sanhueza
Nublense
🔄
64'
I. Jeraldino ↔ F. Rami
Nublense
66'
C. Waterman · Assist: A. Urzi
Universidad de Concepcion
74'
L. Rojas · Assist: Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
75'
A. Urzi ↔ A. Uribe
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
79'
M. Plaza ↔ F. Ovelar
Nublense
🔄
79'
M. Rivera ↔ A. Valdes
Nublense
🔄
83'
B. Ubal ↔ O. Gonzalez
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
83'
J. Espejo ↔ E. Paez
Universidad de Concepcion
🔄
83'
B. Ogaz ↔ H. Salgado
Universidad de Concepcion
🟨
89'
Franco Rami
Nublense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
75.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nublense Win 45.7%
Draw 29.6%
Universidad de Concepcion Win 24.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nublense1.28
Universidad de Concepcion1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nublense Nublense
WWDLW
13 GF / 15 GA
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
WLDWL
10 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
6
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
6
3.42
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nublense Nublense 12 matches
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion 12 matches
Nublense Statistic Universidad de Concepcion
4 Wins 5
5 Draws 2
3 Losses 5
13 Goals For 10
15 Goals Against 19
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 3
3.42 Shots On Goal 4
11.92 Total Shots 12.25
4.5 Corners 5.17
45.4% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universidad de Concepcion. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Universidad de Concepcion arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nublense expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Universidad de Concepcion in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad de Concepcion having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nublense Analysis

Nublense sit 10 with 17 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 13:15 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Jeraldino (3 goals), D. Sanhueza (2 goals), Franco Rami (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Graciani (1 assists), Matías Plaza (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad de Concepcion Analysis

With 17 points from 12 games and a place of 11, Universidad de Concepcion still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 10:19 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Waterman (2 goals), A. Diaz (1 goals), Agustín Urzi (1 goals), with creative support from C. Waterman (1 assists), A. Diaz (1 assists), Agustín Urzi (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Nublense won 4 times, Universidad de Concepcion won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:5 from Nublense's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (75.3%)
Predicted formations: Nublense 3-5-2 / Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nublense wins 4, draws 1, Universidad de Concepcion wins 0
Stats
Nublense Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion Universidad de Concepcion
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
8
2 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 4
0 Offsides 2
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 8
10 Shots insidebox 10
3 Shots outsidebox 8
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
270 Total passes 517
178 Passes accurate 438
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nublense
Formation
Universidad de Concepcion
N. Perez
N. Perez
F. Campos Mosqueira
F. Campos Mosqueira
O. Bosso Torres
O. Bosso Torres
S. Valencia
S. Valencia
G. Graciani
🎯
G. Graciani
M. Plaza
M. Plaza
L. Reyes
L. Reyes
M. Rivera
M. Rivera
J. Campusano
J. Campusano
I. Jeraldino
I. Jeraldino
G. Avalos
G. Avalos
J. Sanhueza
J. Sanhueza
J. Espejo
J. Espejo
D. Retamal
D. Retamal
B. Ubal
B. Ubal
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
🎯
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
F. Mater
F. Mater
B. Ogaz
B. Ogaz
P. Parra
P. Parra
A. Urzi
🎯
A. Urzi
C. Waterman
C. Waterman
J. Fuentealba
J. Fuentealba
Nublense 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
N. Perez
G
5
F. Campos Mosqueira
D
4
O. Bosso Torres
D
15
S. Valencia
8
G. Graciani
🎯 25' ↓ 64' 🟨 3'
M
10
M. Plaza
⚽ 31' ↓ 79'
M
21
L. Reyes
⚽ 25'
M
28
M. Rivera
↓ 79'
M
14
J. Campusano
M
20
I. Jeraldino
↓ 64'
F
29
G. Avalos
↓ 20'
F
Substitutes
25
H. Munoz
G
7
F. Ovelar
↑ 79'
F
18
D. Cespedes
M
6
P. Calderon
D
13
D. Saavedra
19
I. Tapia
↑ 20'
M
16
D. Sanhueza
↑ 64'
D
22
A. Valdes
↑ 79'
M
9
F. Rami
↑ 64' 🟨 89'
F
Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3
Starting XI
13
J. Sanhueza
G
21
J. Espejo
↓ 83'
D
5
D. Retamal
D
6
B. Ubal
↓ 83'
15
Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez
🎯 74'
D
8
F. Mater
M
16
B. Ogaz
↓ 83'
M
14
P. Parra
↓ 57'
M
7
A. Urzi
🎯 66' ↓ 75'
F
18
C. Waterman
⚽ 66'
F
10
J. Fuentealba
F
Substitutes
12
D. Matamala
G
4
O. Gonzalez
↑ 83'
D
22
A. Uribe
↑ 75'
M
27
C. Zambrano
M
2
E. Paez
↑ 83'
M
19
C. Mesias
D
20
L. Rojas
⚽ 74' ↑ 57'
M
25
H. Salgado
↑ 83'
29
D. Sabando
F
Last matches: Nublense
14.06.26
Pri
Nublense
Huachipato
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Cobresal
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Colo Colo
2
6
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nublense
O'Higgins
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Nublense
D. La Serena
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
Nublense
Concepción
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
1
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Union La Calera
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Palestino
1
1
D
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Union La Calera
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
15.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Palestino
1
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Everton de Vina
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Concepción
2
1
W
06.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
H2H: Nublense vs Universidad de Concepcion
06.06.26
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
1
W
23.05.26
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
2
D
30.03.26
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
0
2
W
05.04.25
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
0
W
31.01.25
H2H
Universidad de Concepcion
Nublense
2
3
W
Last matches: Nublense
14.06.26
Pri
Nublense
Huachipato
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
Nublense
O'Higgins
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Nublense
D. La Serena
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
H2H at home: Nublense
06.06.26
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
1
W
23.05.26
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
2
D
05.04.25
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
0
W
Last matches: Universidad de Concepcion
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
U. Catolica
1
5
L
16.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
O'Higgins
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
0
3
L
07.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Huachipato
1
5
L
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
D. La Serena
1
1
D
06.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano
0
3
L
H2H away: Universidad de Concepcion
06.06.26
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
1
L
23.05.26
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
2
D
05.04.25
H2H
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
0
L

Standings

Primera
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 0 3 29:12 17 36
W W W W W
2 15 8 2 5 35:20 15 26
W W L W L
3 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
4 15 7 3 5 23:21 2 24
W D W W L
5 15 7 2 6 23:22 1 23
D L L W D
6 15 6 4 5 19:15 4 22
L W D W W
7 15 5 7 3 18:19 -1 22
D W D L L
8 15 6 3 6 30:23 7 21
L L L L D
9 14 5 6 3 15:10 5 21
D W L W D
10 14 6 2 6 19:20 -1 20
D L L W W
11 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
12 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D L W L D
13 15 4 4 7 18:21 -3 16
D D W L D
14 15 4 2 9 14:23 -9 14
W L W L W
15 15 4 1 10 19:29 -10 13
L L L W L
16 15 3 3 9 14:28 -14 12
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso