CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas
Referee: Juan Ignacio Lara Luco, Chile
Nublense
Match Timeline
Palestino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
E. Roco
Palestino
23'
S. Valencia · Assist: M. Plaza
Nublense
🟨
43'
N. Da Silva
Palestino
44'
L. Molina Canto · Assist: M. Plaza
Nublense
🔄
46'
B. Carrasco ↔ M. Eggel
Palestino
🔄
46'
I. A. Garguez Gomez ↔ J. Benitez
Palestino
🟨
61'
M. Eggel
Palestino
🟨
64'
J. Benitez
Palestino
🔄
64'
N. Meza ↔ I. Alegria
Palestino
🔄
65'
G. Tapia Paez ↔ J. Abrigo
Palestino
🔄
65'
N. Da Silva ↔ R. Fernandez
Palestino
🟨
68'
O. Bosso Torres
Nublense
🔄
76'
M. Plaza ↔ C. Mansilla
Nublense
🔄
76'
G. Graciani ↔ F. Campos Mosqueira
Nublense
🔄
76'
L. Molina Canto ↔ A. Valdes
Nublense
🔄
88'
L. Reyes ↔ C. Salomon
Nublense
🔄
90+3'
D. Sanhueza ↔ B. Munoz
Nublense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds 3.42
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.3%
3.42
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.09
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.21
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Nublense Win 36.8%
Draw 5%
Palestino Win 58.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nublense1.35
Palestino1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nublense Nublense
WWDLW
26 GF / 24 GA
Palestino Palestino
WLDWL
35 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
10
BTTS Yes
14
7
Over 2.5
13
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nublense Nublense 20 matches
Palestino Palestino 21 matches
Nublense Statistic Palestino
8 Wins 10
8 Draws 4
4 Losses 7
26 Goals For 35
24 Goals Against 30
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
10 BTTS Yes 14
12 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 5
3.8 Shots On Goal 4.73
12.27 Total Shots 14.67
4.67 Corners 4.33
44.5% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Palestino's more proactive style and Nublense's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Palestino. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Palestino having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nublense Analysis

Nublense sit 8 with 22 points after 15 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 18:19 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Jeraldino (4 goals), Franco Rami (3 goals), D. Sanhueza (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Graciani (2 assists), Ignacio Tapia (1 assists), Matías Plaza (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palestino Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 24 points from 15 games, Palestino bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 23:21 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on N. Da Silva (7 goals), Bryan Carrasco (3 goals), C. Munder (3 goals), with creative support from Julián Fernández (3 assists), N. Da Silva (2 assists), C. Munder (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Nublense won 4 times, Palestino won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:12 from Nublense's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.45 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Nublense 3-4-3 / Palestino 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nublense wins 4, draws 5, Palestino wins 2
Stats
Nublense Nublense
Palestino Palestino
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
2 Corner Kicks 4
18 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 6
6 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
419 Total passes 345
302 Passes accurate 206
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nublense
Formation
Palestino
Nicola Pérez
Nicola Pérez
Pablo Calderón
Pablo Calderón
Osvaldo Bosso
Osvaldo Bosso
Sebastián Valencia
Sebastián Valencia
Diego Sanhueza
Diego Sanhueza
Lorenzo Reyes
Lorenzo Reyes
Manuel Rivera
Manuel Rivera
Jovany Campusano
Jovany Campusano
Matías Plaza
🎯
Matías Plaza
Gabriel Graciani
Gabriel Graciani
Lucas Molina
Lucas Molina
Sebastián Pérez
Sebastián Pérez
Ian Garguez
Ian Garguez
Vicente Espinoza
Vicente Espinoza
Enzo Roco
Enzo Roco
Dilan Zúñiga
Dilan Zúñiga
Sebastián Gallegos
Sebastián Gallegos
Gonzalo Tapia
Gonzalo Tapia
Nicolás Meza
Nicolás Meza
Bryan Carrasco
Bryan Carrasco
Nelson Da Silva
Nelson Da Silva
César Munder
César Munder
Nublense 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
Nicola Pérez
G
6
Pablo Calderón
D
4
Osvaldo Bosso
🟨 68'
D
15
Sebastián Valencia
D
16
Diego Sanhueza
↓ 90+3'
M
21
Lorenzo Reyes
↓ 88'
M
28
Manuel Rivera
M
14
Jovany Campusano
M
10
Matías Plaza
🎯 23' 🎯 44' ↓ 76'
F
8
Gabriel Graciani
↓ 76'
F
11
Lucas Molina
⚽ 44' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
5
Felipe Campos
↑ 76'
D
22
Alex Valdés
↑ 76'
M
35
Christian Mansilla
M
3
Carlos Salomón
↑ 88'
D
36
Bastian Muñoz
M
25
Hernán Muñoz
G
27
Vicente Guzmán
D
31
Justin Poblete
M
13
Daniel Saavedra
M
Palestino 4-3-3
Starting XI
25
Sebastián Pérez
G
29
Ian Garguez
↓ 46'
D
2
Vicente Espinoza
D
3
Enzo Roco
🟨 21'
D
28
Dilan Zúñiga
D
18
Sebastián Gallegos
M
20
Gonzalo Tapia
↓ 65'
M
8
Nicolás Meza
↓ 64'
M
7
Bryan Carrasco
↓ 46'
F
19
Nelson Da Silva
↓ 65' 🟨 43'
F
27
César Munder
F
Substitutes
11
Jonathan Benítez
↑ 46' 🟨 64'
F
17
Marcelo Eggel
↑ 46' 🟨 61'
M
30
Ian Alegría
↑ 64'
F
14
Joe Abrigo
↑ 65'
M
9
Ronnie Fernández
↑ 65'
F
12
Renato Canto
G
4
Antonio Ceza
D
16
José Bizama
D
24
Dilan Salgado
F
Last matches: Nublense
05.07.26
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
2
2
D
01.07.26
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Rangers de Talca
1
0
W
25.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
4
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
0
1
L
14.06.26
Pri
Nublense
Huachipato
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Cobresal
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Colo Colo
2
6
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nublense
O'Higgins
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Nublense
D. La Serena
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
Nublense
Concepción
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
1
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Union La Calera
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Palestino
1
1
D
Last matches: Palestino
11.07.26
Cop
Palestino
Deportes Santa Cruz
3
2
W
04.07.26
Cop
Palestino
Magallanes
2
1
W
30.06.26
Cop
Palestino
A. Italiano
2
3
L
27.06.26
Cop
Palestino
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
0
D
24.06.26
Cop
Palestino
A. Italiano
1
2
L
20.06.26
Cop
Palestino
Magallanes
4
1
W
13.06.26
Pri
Palestino
Everton de Vina
2
1
W
01.06.26
Pri
Palestino
A. Italiano
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Palestino
Union La Calera
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Palestino
D. La Serena
5
1
W
24.04.26
Pri
Palestino
Concepción
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Palestino
Colo Colo
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Palestino
Deportes Limache
1
0
W
02.04.26
Pri
Palestino
U. Catolica
1
6
L
15.03.26
Pri
Palestino
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Palestino
Cobresal
4
2
W
28.02.26
Pri
Palestino
O'Higgins
4
2
W
21.02.26
Pri
Palestino
Huachipato
1
2
L
13.02.26
Pri
Palestino
Universidad de Chile
0
0
D
07.02.26
Pri
Palestino
Coquimbo Unido
1
3
L
H2H: Nublense vs Palestino
01.02.26
H2H
Palestino
Nublense
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
1
0
W
16.03.25
H2H
Palestino
Nublense
2
0
L
01.09.24
H2H
Palestino
Nublense
1
1
D
14.04.24
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
0
2
L
12.11.23
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Palestino
Nublense
1
2
W
10.09.22
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
2
0
W
10.04.22
H2H
Palestino
Nublense
1
1
D
04.12.21
H2H
Palestino
Nublense
1
4
W
21.08.21
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
2
2
D
Last matches: Nublense
05.07.26
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
2
2
D
25.06.26
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
4
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Nublense
Huachipato
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
Nublense
O'Higgins
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Nublense
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Nublense
D. La Serena
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pri
Nublense
U. Catolica
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nublense
A. Italiano
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Nublense
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
13.07.25
Cop
Nublense
Huachipato
2
2
D
01.07.25
Cop
Nublense
Magallanes
2
0
W
05.04.25
Cop
Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
2
0
W
08.02.25
Cop
Nublense
Deportes Santa Cruz
2
2
D
26.01.25
Cop
Nublense
Curico Unido
3
2
W
13.11.24
Cop
Nublense
Magallanes
2
1
W
29.10.24
Cop
Nublense
D. Puerto Montt
1
1
D
11.07.24
Cop
Nublense
Linares Unido
5
1
W
30.06.24
Cop
Nublense
Rangers de Talca
4
0
W
27.09.22
Cop
Nublense
Huachipato
2
1
W
H2H at home: Nublense
16.08.25
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
1
0
W
14.04.24
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
0
2
L
12.11.23
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
2
0
W
21.08.21
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
2
2
D
Last matches: Palestino
04.07.26
Cop
Palestino
Magallanes
2
1
W
30.06.26
Cop
Palestino
A. Italiano
2
3
L
27.06.26
Cop
Palestino
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
0
D
13.06.26
Pri
Palestino
Everton de Vina
2
1
W
24.05.26
Pri
Palestino
Union La Calera
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Palestino
Colo Colo
1
0
W
02.04.26
Pri
Palestino
U. Catolica
1
6
L
15.03.26
Pri
Palestino
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
Palestino
Huachipato
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Palestino
Coquimbo Unido
1
3
L
11.05.25
Cop
Palestino
A. Italiano
2
2
D
06.04.25
Cop
Palestino
Union Espanola
0
3
L
23.03.25
Cop
Palestino
Concepción
2
3
L
01.02.25
Cop
Palestino
Union Espanola
2
1
W
09.09.24
Cop
Palestino
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
06.07.24
Cop
Palestino
Santiago Wanderers
2
2
D
23.06.24
Cop
Palestino
Barnechea
2
3
L
16.06.24
Cop
Palestino
Santiago City
4
0
W
02.08.23
Cop
Palestino
Colo Colo
0
1
L
09.04.23
Cop
Palestino
Deportes Limache
3
1
W
H2H away: Palestino
16.08.25
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
1
0
L
14.04.24
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
0
2
W
12.11.23
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
2
0
L
21.08.21
H2H
Nublense
Palestino
2
2
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.42
Draw 3.26
Home 2.28
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.04
Draw 2.21
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.09
Over 2.75 2.40
Over 3.5 3.67
Over 4.5 7.31
Under 1.5 3.34
Under 1.75 2.95
Under 2.0 2.53
Under 2.25 2.05
Under 2.5 1.79
Under 2.75 1.60
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 4.5 1.11
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 3.25
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.10
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.38
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.28
Draw 3.14
Home 2.22
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.14
Draw 1.96
Home 2.87
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.36
Home 2.51
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.17
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.38
Over 2.0 1.50
Over 2.25 1.80
Over 2.5 2.04
Over 2.75 2.34
Over 3.0 2.77
Over 3.25 3.08
Over 3.5 3.34
Over 3.75 4.24
Over 4.0 5.90
Over 4.25 6.30
Over 4.5 6.65
Over 5.0 9.70
Over 5.5 14.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 7.90
Under 0.75 7.29
Under 1.0 6.65
Under 1.25 4.00
Under 1.5 3.04
Under 1.75 2.70
Under 2.0 2.33
Under 2.25 1.96
Under 2.5 1.74
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 3.75 1.15
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 3.15
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.05
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 2.38
Home 2.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.0 1.55
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.0 2.90
Over 3.25 3.25
Over 3.5 3.55
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.5 6.40
Under 1.5 2.95
Under 2.0 2.25
Under 2.5 1.66
Under 3.0 1.34
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Primera
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 0 3 32:13 19 39
W W W W W
2 16 8 3 5 38:23 15 27
D W W L W
3 16 7 6 3 19:11 8 27
W W D W L
4 16 6 7 3 20:19 1 25
W D W D L
5 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
6 16 7 3 6 26:25 1 24
D D L L W
7 16 7 3 6 23:23 0 24
L W D W W
8 15 6 4 5 19:15 4 22
L W D W W
9 16 6 3 7 31:26 5 21
L L L L L
10 16 6 2 8 19:24 -5 20
L L D L L
11 16 4 7 5 24:28 -4 19
D D L W L
12 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
13 16 5 2 9 16:23 -7 17
W W L W L
14 16 4 4 8 19:23 -4 16
L D D W L
15 16 4 2 10 22:32 -10 14
D L L L W
16 15 3 3 9 14:28 -14 12
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso