BRAZIL SERIE B
28.08.2026 23:30
Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Referee: M. Lima Barbosa
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
Sport Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
Romulo · Assist: Luis Oyama
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Clayson ↔ Dudu
Sport Recife
🔄
61'
Nicolas Careca ↔ Diego Galo
Novorizontino
🔄
61'
Ze Gabriel ↔ Biel Fonseca
Sport Recife
🔄
61'
Claudinho ↔ Augusto
Sport Recife
🔄
74'
Reidiney ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
75'
Leo Naldi ↔ Matheus Bianqui
Novorizontino
🔄
75'
Diego Hernandez ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
77'
Matheus Bianqui · Assist: Diego Galo
Novorizontino
🟨
85'
Kayky Almeida
Sport Recife
🔄
88'
Robson ↔ Marlon
Novorizontino
🔄
88'
Romulo ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
88'
Willian Oliveira ↔ Ze Roberto
Sport Recife
🟨
90+6'
Juninho
Novorizontino
🟨
90+7'
Augusto Pucci
Sport Recife
VAR
90+8'
Augusto Pucci
Sport Recife
VAR
90+2'
Zé Roberto
Sport Recife
90'
Pedro Perotti
Sport Recife

Novorizontino vs Sport Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds 1.70
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.11
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.7%
1.70
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.11
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.2%
2.10
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 59.7%
Draw 12.5%
Sport Recife Win 27.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.35
Sport Recife1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
39 GF / 21 GA
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WLDWL
32 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
11
BTTS Yes
14
13
Over 2.5
10
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 24 matches
Sport Recife Sport Recife 24 matches
Novorizontino Statistic Sport Recife
11 Wins 9
7 Draws 11
6 Losses 4
39 Goals For 32
21 Goals Against 22
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
11 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 4
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.33
14.25 Total Shots 13.71
5.88 Corners 4.75
48% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sport Recife. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Novorizontino have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 34 points from 22 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 32:20, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Robson (6 goals), Rômulo (3 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (6 assists), Robson (3 assists), Juninho (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife sit 6 with 35 points after 23 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 11 draws, and 4 losses, while the 29:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Chrystian Barletta (6 goals), Perotti (6 goals), Biel Fonseca (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Biel Fonseca (3 assists), Carlos De Pena (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 1 times, Sport Recife won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:7 from Novorizontino's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / Sport Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 1, draws 2, Sport Recife wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 48:25 23 50
D W W W W
2 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
4 27 14 5 8 39:30 9 47
W L W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 28 12 10 6 36:26 10 46
W W D W W
7 27 12 7 8 36:33 3 43
W W D D L
8 27 12 6 9 40:39 1 42
L W W L W
9 27 10 11 6 36:26 10 41
W L L W L
10 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
11 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
12 27 10 7 10 32:30 2 37
L W W D W
13 27 10 6 11 25:33 -8 36
L L W D L
14 27 9 8 10 37:31 6 35
L W L D D
15 28 8 8 12 29:36 -7 32
D L W L W
16 27 8 7 12 30:32 -2 31
L L L L D
17 27 8 5 14 28:35 -7 29
L L L W W
18 27 6 7 14 32:39 -7 25
W L D L D
19 27 4 5 18 21:46 -25 17
W L W L L
20 27 2 4 21 16:56 -40 10
L L L L L
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