ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
19.04.2026 13:00
City Ground
Referee: T. Kirk
Nottingham Forest
Match Timeline
Burnley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
42'
Murillo ↔ Cunha
Nottingham Forest
45'
Z. Flemming · Assist: Q. Hartman
Burnley
🔄
46'
D. Bakwa ↔ Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
62'
M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
🔄
64'
M. Edwards ↔ L. Foster
Burnley
69'
M. Gibbs-White · Assist: O. Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
🟨
75'
Florentino Luís
Burnley
🔄
76'
C. Wood ↔ R. Yates
Nottingham Forest
🔄
76'
L. Ugochukwu ↔ J. Bruun Larsen
Burnley
77'
M. Gibbs-White · Assist: R. Yates
Nottingham Forest
🟨
80'
Kyle Walker
Burnley
🔄
83'
J. Anthony ↔ L. Tchaouna
Burnley
🔄
83'
Florentino ↔ J. Laurent
Burnley
🔄
84'
Z. Flemming ↔ A. Broja
Burnley
🔄
88'
O. Hutchinson ↔ Morato
Nottingham Forest
🔄
89'
M. Gibbs-White ↔ N. Dominguez
Nottingham Forest
90'
Igor Jesus · Assist: N. Dominguez
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 81.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
81.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
66.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
53.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Nottingham Forest Win 51.7%
Draw 29.6%
Burnley Win 18.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest1.51
Burnley1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WWDLW
58 GF / 59 GA
Burnley Burnley
WLDWL
39 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
20
BTTS Yes
20
25
Over 2.5
18
4.79
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 47 matches
Burnley Burnley 34 matches
Nottingham Forest Statistic Burnley
15 Wins 5
13 Draws 8
19 Losses 21
58 Goals For 39
59 Goals Against 66
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
20 BTTS Yes 20
36 Over 1.5 30
25 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 13
14 Clean Sheets 4
17 Failed To Score 12
4.79 Shots On Goal 3.18
14.26 Total Shots 9.85
5.57 Corners 3.88
49.3% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Nottingham Forest appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Burnley. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Burnley. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Burnley arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 33 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 32:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Gibbs-White (9 goals), C. Hudson-Odoi (3 goals), Igor Jesus (3 goals), with creative support from C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), Igor Jesus (3 assists), Neco Williams (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, E. Anderson, John Victor unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley sit 19 with 20 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 20 defeats with a 33:63 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Z. Flemming (8 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (4 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Z. Amdouni, J. Beyer, J. Cullen, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3 times, Burnley won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Nottingham Forest's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1 / Burnley 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nottingham Forest 7, Burnley 5
H2H summary: Nottingham Forest wins 3, draws 5, Burnley wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship