ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
City Ground
Referee: T. Kirk
Nottingham Forest
Match Timeline
Burnley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
42'
Murillo ↔ Cunha
Nottingham Forest
45'
Z. Flemming · Assist: Q. Hartman
Burnley
🔄
46'
D. Bakwa ↔ Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
62'
M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
🔄
64'
M. Edwards ↔ L. Foster
Burnley
69'
M. Gibbs-White · Assist: O. Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
🟨
75'
Florentino Luís
Burnley
🔄
76'
C. Wood ↔ R. Yates
Nottingham Forest
🔄
76'
L. Ugochukwu ↔ J. Bruun Larsen
Burnley
77'
M. Gibbs-White · Assist: R. Yates
Nottingham Forest
🟨
80'
Kyle Walker
Burnley
🔄
83'
J. Anthony ↔ L. Tchaouna
Burnley
🔄
83'
Florentino ↔ J. Laurent
Burnley
🔄
84'
Z. Flemming ↔ A. Broja
Burnley
🔄
88'
O. Hutchinson ↔ Morato
Nottingham Forest
🔄
89'
M. Gibbs-White ↔ N. Dominguez
Nottingham Forest
90'
Igor Jesus · Assist: N. Dominguez
Nottingham Forest

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 81.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
81.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
66.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
53.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Nottingham Forest Win 51.7%
Draw 29.6%
Burnley Win 18.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest1.51
Burnley1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WWDLW
58 GF / 59 GA
Burnley Burnley
WLDWL
39 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
20
BTTS Yes
20
25
Over 2.5
18
4.79
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 47 matches
Burnley Burnley 34 matches
Nottingham Forest Statistic Burnley
15 Wins 5
13 Draws 8
19 Losses 21
58 Goals For 39
59 Goals Against 66
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
20 BTTS Yes 20
36 Over 1.5 30
25 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 13
14 Clean Sheets 4
17 Failed To Score 12
4.79 Shots On Goal 3.18
14.26 Total Shots 9.85
5.57 Corners 3.88
49.3% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Nottingham Forest appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Burnley. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Burnley. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Burnley arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 33 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 32:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Gibbs-White (9 goals), C. Hudson-Odoi (3 goals), Igor Jesus (3 goals), with creative support from C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), Igor Jesus (3 assists), Neco Williams (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, E. Anderson, John Victor unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley sit 19 with 20 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 20 defeats with a 33:63 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Z. Flemming (8 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (4 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Z. Amdouni, J. Beyer, J. Cullen, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3 times, Burnley won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Nottingham Forest's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1 / Burnley 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nottingham Forest 7, Burnley 5
H2H summary: Nottingham Forest wins 3, draws 5, Burnley wins 6
Stats
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
Burnley Burnley
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
0
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 0
2 Blocked Shots 1
8 Shots insidebox 3
2 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
474 Total passes 453
389 Passes accurate 370
1.19 expected_goals 0.36
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nottingham Forest
Formation
Burnley
M. Sels
M. Sels
O. Aina
O. Aina
N. Milenkovic
N. Milenkovic
Murillo
Murillo
N. Williams
N. Williams
I. Sangare
I. Sangare
E. Anderson
E. Anderson
D. Bakwa
D. Bakwa
M. Gibbs-White
⚽ 3
M. Gibbs-White
O. Hutchinson
🎯
O. Hutchinson
C. Wood
C. Wood
M. Dubravka
M. Dubravka
K. Walker
K. Walker
H. Ekdal
H. Ekdal
M. Esteve
M. Esteve
Q. Hartman
🎯
Q. Hartman
J. Ward-Prowse
J. Ward-Prowse
Florentino
Florentino
M. Edwards
M. Edwards
L. Ugochukwu
L. Ugochukwu
J. Anthony
J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Z. Flemming
Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
26
M. Sels
G
34
O. Aina
D
31
N. Milenkovic
D
5
Murillo
↓ 42'
D
3
N. Williams
D
6
I. Sangare
M
8
E. Anderson
M
29
D. Bakwa
↓ 46'
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
⚽ 62' ⚽ 69' ⚽ 77' ↓ 89'
M
21
O. Hutchinson
🎯 69' ↓ 88'
M
11
C. Wood
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
27
S. Ortega
G
9
T. Awoniyi
F
22
R. Yates
🎯 77' ↑ 76'
M
25
L. Netz
D
19
Igor Jesus
⚽ 90' ↑ 46'
F
24
J. McAtee
M
23
Cunha
↑ 42'
D
16
N. Dominguez
🎯 90' ↑ 89'
M
4
Morato
↑ 88'
D
Burnley 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
M. Dubravka
G
2
K. Walker
🟨 80'
D
18
H. Ekdal
D
5
M. Esteve
D
3
Q. Hartman
🎯 45'
D
20
J. Ward-Prowse
M
16
Florentino
↓ 83' 🟨 75'
M
10
M. Edwards
↓ 64'
M
8
L. Ugochukwu
↓ 76'
M
11
J. Anthony
↓ 83'
M
19
Z. Flemming
⚽ 45' ↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
13
M. Weiss
G
31
M. Tresor Ndayishimiye
F
4
J. Worrall
D
27
A. Broja
↑ 84'
F
17
L. Tchaouna
↑ 83'
F
29
J. Laurent
↑ 83'
M
7
J. Bruun Larsen
↑ 76'
F
9
L. Foster
↑ 64'
F
12
B. Humphreys
D
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
24.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
3
1
W
30.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
5
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
04.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
1
2
L
26.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
3
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
0
0
D
Last matches: Burnley
16.07.26
Fri
Burnley
Real Salt Lake
1
4
L
12.07.26
Fri
Burnley
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Burnley
FC Cincinnati
1
3
L
24.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Leeds
1
3
L
22.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
3
4
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Burnley
Mansfield Town
1
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
07.02.26
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
0
2
L
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Tottenham
2
2
D
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
H2H: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
19.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
W
20.09.25
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
19.05.24
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
2
W
18.09.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
30.08.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
1
L
31.07.21
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
0
D
23.02.16
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
0
L
20.10.15
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
22.02.14
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
3
1
L
23.11.13
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
24.09.13
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
2
1
L
01.04.13
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
08.12.12
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
2
0
W
31.01.12
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
2
L
27.09.11
H2H
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
5
1
L
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
24.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
1
1
D
30.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
26.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0
1
L
11.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Ferencvarosi TC
4
0
W
17.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
0
0
D
30.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Everton
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
1
2
L
14.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
30.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
0
2
L
27.11.25
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Malmo FF
3
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
3
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
2
D
H2H at home: Nottingham Forest
19.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
W
18.09.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
30.08.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
1
L
31.07.21
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
0
D
20.10.15
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
23.11.13
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
08.12.12
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
2
0
W
31.01.12
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
2
L
Last matches: Burnley
16.07.26
Fri
Burnley
Real Salt Lake
1
4
L
12.07.26
Fri
Burnley
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Burnley
FC Cincinnati
1
3
L
18.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
L
01.05.26
Pre
Burnley
Leeds
1
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Fulham
1
3
L
03.03.26
Pre
Burnley
Everton
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Chelsea
1
1
D
11.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Crystal Palace
3
2
W
02.02.26
Pre
Burnley
Sunderland
0
3
L
17.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Liverpool
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
20.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Bournemouth
1
1
D
06.12.25
Pre
Burnley
Newcastle
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Burnley
Brentford
1
3
L
08.11.25
Pre
Burnley
West Ham
2
3
L
26.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Wolves
3
2
W
05.10.25
Pre
Burnley
Aston Villa
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Burnley
Manchester City
1
5
L
30.08.25
Pre
Burnley
Manchester United
2
3
L
H2H away: Burnley
19.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
L
18.09.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
30.08.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
1
W
31.07.21
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
0
D
20.10.15
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
23.11.13
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
1
1
D
08.12.12
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
2
0
L
31.01.12
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
0
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Nottingham Forest 7 missing
-
W. Boly
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Anderson
Questionable Personal Reasons
OUT
-
John Victor
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Savona
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
C. Wood
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Murillo
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
C. Hudson-Odoi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Burnley 5 missing
-
Z. Amdouni
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Beyer
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Cullen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
C. Roberts
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
H. Mejbri
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT