Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
61.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
76.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
52%
|
- |
Norwich
Derby
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Norwich
46 matches
Derby
44 matches
| Norwich | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wins | 19 |
| 7 | Draws | 9 |
| 19 | Losses | 16 |
| 67 | Goals For | 63 |
| 57 | Goals Against | 56 |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.43 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.27 |
| 27 | BTTS Yes | 28 |
| 38 | Over 1.5 | 33 |
| 23 | Over 2.5 | 22 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 12 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4.61 | Shots On Goal | 3.41 |
| 12.78 | Total Shots | 10.73 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 53.8% | Ball Possession | 44.1% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Norwich appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Derby. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Derby.
So far, Norwich have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 61 points from 43 matches. The record of 18 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats, together with a 55:50 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Makama (10 goals), J. Sargent (7 goals), M. Toure (7 goals), with creative support from M. Nunez (8 assists), K. McLean (4 assists), J. Sargent (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with H. Amass, A. Crnac, P. A. Diallo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Derby are currently 8 in the standings with 66 points from 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 19 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 61:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 9 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without C. Elder, B. Clark, P. Agyemang, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Norwich won 4 times, Derby won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Norwich's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.
Norwich
6
8
5
3
3
0
Lineups
Norwich
AFC Wimbledon
Norwich
FC ST. Gallen
Norwich
Colchester
Norwich
King's Lynn Town
Norwich
Hull City
Norwich
Swansea
Norwich
Bristol City
Norwich
Ipswich
Norwich
Millwall
Norwich
Portsmouth
Norwich
Charlton
Norwich
Southampton
Norwich
Preston
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Norwich
Leeds
Norwich
Leicester
Norwich
Sheffield Wednesday
Norwich
Birmingham
Norwich
West Brom
Norwich
Oxford United
Derby
SC Freiburg
Derby
Alfreton Town
Derby
Sheffield Utd
Derby
QPR
Derby
Oxford United
Derby
Southampton
Derby
Stoke City
Derby
Coventry
Derby
Birmingham
Derby
Portsmouth
Derby
Millwall
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
Derby
Blackburn
Derby
Hull City
Derby
Watford
Derby
Swansea
Derby
Ipswich
Derby
Bristol City
Derby
West Brom
Derby
Charlton
Norwich
Colchester
Norwich
King's Lynn Town
Norwich
Swansea
Norwich
Ipswich
Norwich
Portsmouth
Norwich
Preston
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
Norwich
Sheffield Wednesday
Norwich
Birmingham
Norwich
West Brom
Norwich
Blackburn
Norwich
Coventry
Norwich
Walsall
Norwich
Stoke City
Norwich
Watford
Norwich
Charlton
Norwich
Southampton
Norwich
QPR
Norwich
Oxford United
Norwich
Leicester
Derby
SC Freiburg
Derby
Alfreton Town
Derby
QPR
Derby
Southampton
Derby
Coventry
Derby
Portsmouth
Derby
Millwall
Derby
Hull City
Derby
Watford
Derby
Bristol City
Derby
Charlton
Derby
Preston
Derby
Leicester
Derby
Birmingham
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
Derby
Middlesbrough
Derby
Swansea
Derby
Blackburn
Derby
Sheffield Utd
Derby
Oxford United
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 8 |
Derby
Away
|
46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
| 9 |
Norwich
Home
|
46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
| 10 | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
D
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 19 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 21 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 22 | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 23 | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
W
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
W
L
L
D
D
|