ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Carrow Road
Referee: T. Reeves
Norwich
Match Timeline
Derby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Ben Brereton Díaz
Derby
33'
M. Toure · Assist: A. Forson
Norwich
🟨
45+5'
Mohamed Touré
Norwich
54'
D. Ozoh · Assist: C. Morris
Derby
60'
L. Gibbs · Assist: P. Maghoma
Norwich
🔄
62'
M. Toure ↔ M. Kvistgaarden
Norwich
🔄
67'
D. Murkin ↔ C. Forsyth
Derby
🔄
67'
J. Banel ↔ L. Salvesen
Derby
🔄
67'
B. Brereton Diaz ↔ M. Johnston
Derby
🟨
69'
Vladan Kovačević
Norwich
🔄
75'
D. Ozoh ↔ O. Fraulo
Derby
🔄
80'
P. Maghoma ↔ A. Slimane
Norwich
🔄
80'
A. Forson ↔ E. Mundle Smith
Norwich
🟨
82'
Lewis Travis
Derby
🔄
87'
L. Travis ↔ O. Eames
Derby
🟨
88'
Matt Clarke
Derby
🔄
88'
J. Stacey ↔ S. Field
Norwich

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52%
-
Probability Distribution
Norwich Win 61.4%
Draw 11%
Derby Win 27.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Norwich1.38
Derby1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Norwich Norwich
WWDLW
67 GF / 57 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
63 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
27
BTTS Yes
28
23
Over 2.5
22
4.61
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Norwich Norwich 46 matches
Derby Derby 44 matches
Norwich Statistic Derby
20 Wins 19
7 Draws 9
19 Losses 16
67 Goals For 63
57 Goals Against 56
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
27 BTTS Yes 28
38 Over 1.5 33
23 Over 2.5 22
9 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 12
10 Failed To Score 4
4.61 Shots On Goal 3.41
12.78 Total Shots 10.73
5.5 Corners 4.5
53.8% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Norwich appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Derby. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Derby.

Norwich Analysis

So far, Norwich have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 61 points from 43 matches. The record of 18 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats, together with a 55:50 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Makama (10 goals), J. Sargent (7 goals), M. Toure (7 goals), with creative support from M. Nunez (8 assists), K. McLean (4 assists), J. Sargent (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with H. Amass, A. Crnac, P. A. Diallo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Derby Analysis

Derby are currently 8 in the standings with 66 points from 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 19 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 61:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 9 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without C. Elder, B. Clark, P. Agyemang, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Norwich won 4 times, Derby won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Norwich's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Norwich 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Norwich 10, Derby 4
H2H summary: Norwich wins 4, draws 5, Derby wins 5
Stats
Norwich Norwich
Derby Derby
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
0
3 Corner Kicks 4
9 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 5
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Goal 8
5 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 9
6 Shots outsidebox 2
7 Goalkeeper Saves 4
418 Total passes 338
308 Passes accurate 236
1.54 expected_goals 1.20
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Norwich
Formation
Derby
V. Kovacevic
V. Kovacevic
J. Stacey
J. Stacey
H. Darling
H. Darling
J. Cordoba
J. Cordoba
K. Fisher
K. Fisher
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson
K. McLean
K. McLean
A. Forson
🎯
A. Forson
P. Maghoma
🎯
P. Maghoma
L. Gibbs
L. Gibbs
M. Toure
M. Toure
J. Widell Zetterstrom
J. Widell Zetterstrom
J. Ward
J. Ward
S. Langas
S. Langas
M. Clarke
M. Clarke
D. Murkin
D. Murkin
L. Travis
L. Travis
D. Ozoh
D. Ozoh
B. Brereton Diaz
B. Brereton Diaz
S. Szmodics
S. Szmodics
J. Banel
J. Banel
C. Morris
🎯
C. Morris
Norwich 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
V. Kovacevic
🟨 69'
G
3
J. Stacey
↓ 88'
D
6
H. Darling
D
33
J. Cordoba
D
35
K. Fisher
D
7
P. Mattsson
M
23
K. McLean
M
18
A. Forson
🎯 33' ↓ 80'
M
25
P. Maghoma
🎯 60' ↓ 80'
M
8
L. Gibbs
⚽ 60'
M
37
M. Toure
⚽ 33' ↓ 62' 🟨 45+5'
F
Substitutes
32
D. Grimshaw
G
27
J. Schlupp
M
5
J. Medic
20
A. Slimane
↑ 80'
M
30
M. Kvistgaarden
↑ 62'
F
16
J. Wright
M
26
S. Field
↑ 88'
M
52
Z. Baumann
M
46
E. Mundle Smith
↑ 80'
F
Derby 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Widell Zetterstrom
G
23
J. Ward
D
6
S. Langas
D
5
M. Clarke
🟨 88'
D
2
D. Murkin
↓ 67'
D
27
L. Travis
↓ 87' 🟨 82'
M
18
D. Ozoh
⚽ 54' ↓ 75'
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
↓ 67' 🟨 19'
M
19
S. Szmodics
M
34
J. Banel
↓ 67'
M
9
C. Morris
🎯 54'
F
Substitutes
31
J. Vickers
G
4
D. Batth
D
37
O. Eames
↑ 87'
M
3
C. Forsyth
↑ 67'
D
15
L. Salvesen
↑ 67'
F
29
O. Fraulo
↑ 75'
M
22
M. Johnston
↑ 67'
D
54
C. Allen
44
I. Gordon
D
Last matches: Norwich
22.07.26
Fri
Norwich
AFC Wimbledon
0
0
D
17.07.26
Fri
Norwich
FC ST. Gallen
3
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Norwich
Colchester
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Norwich
King's Lynn Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Norwich
Hull City
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Swansea
1
1
D
18.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Bristol City
4
2
W
11.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Ipswich
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Millwall
2
1
W
03.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Portsmouth
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Norwich
Charlton
1
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Norwich
Southampton
0
1
L
14.03.26
Cha
Norwich
Preston
2
0
W
11.03.26
Cha
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
08.03.26
FA
Norwich
Leeds
0
3
L
28.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Leicester
2
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Birmingham
1
2
L
14.02.26
FA
Norwich
West Brom
3
1
W
10.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Oxford United
3
0
W
Last matches: Derby
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
H2H: Norwich vs Derby
21.04.26
H2H
Norwich
Derby
2
1
W
21.10.25
H2H
Derby
Norwich
1
0
L
08.02.25
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
1
D
28.09.24
H2H
Derby
Norwich
2
3
W
10.04.21
H2H
Derby
Norwich
0
1
W
03.10.20
H2H
Norwich
Derby
0
1
L
29.12.18
H2H
Norwich
Derby
3
4
L
03.10.18
H2H
Derby
Norwich
1
1
D
10.02.18
H2H
Derby
Norwich
1
1
D
28.10.17
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
2
L
02.01.17
H2H
Norwich
Derby
3
0
W
26.11.16
H2H
Derby
Norwich
1
0
L
14.03.15
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
1
D
20.12.14
H2H
Derby
Norwich
2
2
D
Last matches: Norwich
11.07.26
Fri
Norwich
Colchester
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Norwich
King's Lynn Town
2
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Swansea
1
1
D
11.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Ipswich
0
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Norwich
Portsmouth
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Norwich
Preston
2
0
W
11.03.26
Cha
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Birmingham
1
2
L
14.02.26
FA
Norwich
West Brom
3
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Norwich
Blackburn
2
0
W
26.01.26
Cha
Norwich
Coventry
2
1
W
11.01.26
FA
Norwich
Walsall
5
1
W
04.01.26
Cha
Norwich
Stoke City
0
2
L
29.12.25
Cha
Norwich
Watford
0
1
L
26.12.25
Cha
Norwich
Charlton
1
0
W
13.12.25
Cha
Norwich
Southampton
2
1
W
29.11.25
Cha
Norwich
QPR
3
1
W
25.11.25
Cha
Norwich
Oxford United
1
1
D
08.11.25
Cha
Norwich
Leicester
1
2
L
H2H at home: Norwich
21.04.26
H2H
Norwich
Derby
2
1
W
08.02.25
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
1
D
03.10.20
H2H
Norwich
Derby
0
1
L
29.12.18
H2H
Norwich
Derby
3
4
L
28.10.17
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
2
L
02.01.17
H2H
Norwich
Derby
3
0
W
14.03.15
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
1
D
Last matches: Derby
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Derby
Preston
1
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
15.12.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
29.11.25
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
1
W
08.11.25
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
2
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
3
1
W
18.10.25
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
0
1
L
H2H away: Derby
21.04.26
H2H
Norwich
Derby
2
1
L
08.02.25
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
1
D
03.10.20
H2H
Norwich
Derby
0
1
W
29.12.18
H2H
Norwich
Derby
3
4
W
28.10.17
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
2
W
02.01.17
H2H
Norwich
Derby
3
0
L
14.03.15
H2H
Norwich
Derby
1
1
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Away
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Norwich 10 missing
-
H. Amass
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
A. Crnac
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
P. A. Diallo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
S. Duffy
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
G. Forsyth
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Jurasek
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
L. Mahovo
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
J. Makama
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
M. Topic
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Chrisene
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Derby 4 missing
-
C. Elder
Missing Fixture Toe Injury
OUT
-
B. Clark
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
P. Agyemang
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
D. Murkin
Questionable Injury
OUT