ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Sixfields Stadium
Referee: D. Baines
Northampton
Match Timeline
Doncaster
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45'
Jack Burroughs
Northampton
50'
E. Lee
Doncaster
57'
H. Adelakun · Assist: O. Bailey
Doncaster
🟨
59'
Dean Campbell
Northampton
🔄
64'
T. Eaves ↔ E. List
Northampton
🔄
64'
M. Jacobs ↔ J. Evans
Northampton
🟨
69'
Nesta Guinness-Walker
Northampton
🟨
69'
Thimothee Lo-Tutala
Doncaster
🔄
73'
D. Campbell ↔ K. Swyer
Northampton
🔄
73'
N. Guinness-Walker ↔ K. McAdam
Northampton
🔄
73'
J. Burroughs ↔ C. McCarthy
Northampton
🔄
75'
H. Clifton ↔ G. Broadbent
Doncaster
🔄
82'
L. Molyneux ↔ J. Gibson
Doncaster
🔄
82'
E. Lee ↔ B. Hanlan
Doncaster
🟨
86'
Jake Evans
Northampton
🟨
90+1'
Elliott List
Northampton
🟨
90+5'
Robbie Gotts
Doncaster
🔄
90'
H. Adelakun ↔ B. Close
Doncaster
90'
G. Broadbent · Assist: B. Hanlan
Doncaster
90'
C. McGeehan
Northampton

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
52.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Northampton Win 22%
Draw 5%
Doncaster Win 73.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Northampton1.12
Doncaster1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Northampton Northampton
WWDLW
36 GF / 65 GA
Doncaster Doncaster
WLDWL
49 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
0.84
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.51
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
20
BTTS Yes
23
20
Over 2.5
24
2.74
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Northampton Northampton 43 matches
Doncaster Doncaster 45 matches
Northampton Statistic Doncaster
9 Wins 17
8 Draws 8
26 Losses 20
36 Goals For 49
65 Goals Against 69
0.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.51 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
20 BTTS Yes 23
30 Over 1.5 32
20 Over 2.5 24
10 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 11
18 Failed To Score 13
2.74 Shots On Goal 3.75
8.95 Total Shots 12.43
4.81 Corners 4.39
43.7% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Doncaster carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 15 with 53 points while Northampton sit 24 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Doncaster. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Northampton have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Northampton expected to line up in 4-5-1 and Doncaster in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Doncaster having the stronger overall control.

Northampton Analysis

With 35 points from 42 games and a place of 24, Northampton still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 25 defeats with a 34:60 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on T. Eaves (8 goals), Cameron McGeehan (6 goals), S. Hoskins (6 goals), with creative support from D. Campbell (5 assists), Terry Taylor (3 assists), T. Eaves (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Doncaster Analysis

Doncaster approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 53 points from 42 matches. The overall return of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats with a 43:64 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on O. Bailey (13 goals), L. Molyneux (8 goals), B. Hanlan (5 goals), with creative support from L. Molyneux (7 assists), O. Bailey (3 assists), J. Gibson (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Northampton won 3 times, Doncaster won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Northampton's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Northampton 4-5-1 / Doncaster 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Northampton wins 3, draws 1, Doncaster wins 4
Stats
Northampton Northampton
Doncaster Doncaster
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
10
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 5
17 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 0
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Goal 6
2 Shots off Goal 10
3 Blocked Shots 3
4 Shots insidebox 14
3 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
379 Total passes 338
287 Passes accurate 254
0.99 expected_goals 3.02
🟨 5 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Northampton
Formation
Doncaster
L. Burge
L. Burge
J. Burroughs
J. Burroughs
M. Dyche
M. Dyche
J. Guthrie
J. Guthrie
N. Guinness-Walker
N. Guinness-Walker
T. Fornah
T. Fornah
C. McGeehan
C. McGeehan
D. Campbell
D. Campbell
M. Jacobs
M. Jacobs
T. Eaves
T. Eaves
S. Hoskins
S. Hoskins
T. Lo-Tutala
T. Lo-Tutala
J. Sterry
J. Sterry
S. Grehan
S. Grehan
M. Pearson
M. Pearson
J. Senior
J. Senior
R. Gotts
R. Gotts
L. Molyneux
L. Molyneux
O. Bailey
🎯
O. Bailey
E. Lee
E. Lee
H. Clifton
H. Clifton
H. Adelakun
H. Adelakun
Northampton 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
L. Burge
G
2
J. Burroughs
↓ 73' 🟨 45'
D
35
M. Dyche
D
5
J. Guthrie
D
12
N. Guinness-Walker
↓ 73' 🟨 69'
D
14
T. Fornah
M
8
C. McGeehan
⚽ 90'
M
4
D. Campbell
↓ 73' 🟨 59'
M
17
M. Jacobs
↓ 64'
M
9
T. Eaves
↓ 64'
F
7
S. Hoskins
F
Substitutes
34
R. Fitzsimons
G
11
K. Swyer
↑ 73'
F
26
K. McAdam
↑ 73'
D
3
C. McCarthy
↑ 73'
D
10
E. List
↑ 64' 🟨 90+1'
M
23
T. Taylor
M
15
J. Evans
↑ 64' 🟨 86'
F
Doncaster 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
29
T. Lo-Tutala
🟨 69'
G
2
J. Sterry
D
27
S. Grehan
D
5
M. Pearson
D
23
J. Senior
D
22
R. Gotts
🟨 90+5'
M
7
L. Molyneux
↓ 82'
M
4
O. Bailey
🎯 57'
M
18
E. Lee
⚽ 50' ↓ 82'
M
15
H. Clifton
↓ 75'
M
47
H. Adelakun
⚽ 57' ↓ 90'
F
Substitutes
1
Z. Clark
G
12
N. Byrne
D
11
J. Gibson
↑ 82'
M
33
B. Close
↑ 90'
M
9
B. Hanlan
🎯 90' ↑ 82'
F
8
G. Broadbent
⚽ 90' ↑ 75'
M
16
T. Nixon
D
Last matches: Northampton
01.08.26
Fri
Northampton
Solihull Moors
4
2
W
28.07.26
Fri
Northampton
Cambridge United
0
0
D
22.07.26
Fri
Northampton
Southend
3
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Northampton
Coventry
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
Northampton
Leicester
0
3
L
02.05.26
Lea
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
L
28.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Barnsley
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Cardiff
1
5
L
15.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Luton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Wigan
1
3
L
03.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Bradford
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Mansfield Town
1
4
L
17.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Stockport County
1
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Burton Albion
0
2
L
08.03.26
Lea
Northampton
AFC Wimbledon
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Peterborough
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Port Vale
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Lincoln
0
4
L
14.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Exeter City
0
0
D
Last matches: Doncaster
01.08.26
Fri
Doncaster
Lincoln
0
1
L
29.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Wolves
0
2
L
25.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Gainsborough Trinity
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Harrogate Town
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Linfield
2
0
W
16.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Glenavon FC
5
0
W
14.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
St Patrick's Athl.
4
2
W
02.05.26
Lea
Doncaster
Peterborough
3
1
W
25.04.26
Lea
Doncaster
Stevenage
1
1
D
21.04.26
Lea
Doncaster
Lincoln
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Doncaster
Reading
1
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Doncaster
Exeter City
0
3
L
03.04.26
Lea
Doncaster
Mansfield Town
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Port Vale
1
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Barnsley
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Bolton
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Blackpool
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Luton
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Plymouth
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Doncaster
Cardiff
0
4
L
H2H: Northampton vs Doncaster
18.04.26
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
1
3
L
18.10.25
H2H
Doncaster
Northampton
1
2
W
25.03.23
H2H
Doncaster
Northampton
0
2
W
27.08.22
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
0
1
L
13.03.21
H2H
Doncaster
Northampton
0
0
D
05.12.20
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
0
2
L
26.12.17
H2H
Doncaster
Northampton
3
0
L
09.09.17
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
1
0
W
Last matches: Northampton
18.07.26
Fri
Northampton
Coventry
0
0
D
02.05.26
Lea
Northampton
Plymouth
2
3
L
28.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Barnsley
0
1
L
06.04.26
Lea
Northampton
Wigan
1
3
L
14.03.26
Lea
Northampton
Burton Albion
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Peterborough
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Port Vale
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
07.02.26
Lea
Northampton
Stevenage
3
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Reading
0
2
L
17.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Wycombe
1
2
L
01.01.26
Lea
Northampton
Stockport County
0
0
D
19.12.25
Lea
Northampton
AFC Wimbledon
3
1
W
09.12.25
Lea
Northampton
Huddersfield
1
1
D
22.11.25
Lea
Northampton
Cardiff
1
3
L
08.11.25
Lea
Northampton
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lea
Northampton
Luton
0
1
L
11.10.25
Lea
Northampton
Rotherham
1
2
L
27.09.25
Lea
Northampton
Bolton
2
0
W
13.09.25
Lea
Northampton
Blackpool
1
0
W
H2H at home: Northampton
18.04.26
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
1
3
L
27.08.22
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
0
1
L
05.12.20
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
0
2
L
09.09.17
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
1
0
W
Last matches: Doncaster
25.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Gainsborough Trinity
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Harrogate Town
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Linfield
2
0
W
16.07.26
Fri
Doncaster
Glenavon FC
5
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Doncaster
Peterborough
3
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Doncaster
Exeter City
0
3
L
21.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Barnsley
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Bolton
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lea
Doncaster
Plymouth
1
2
L
21.02.26
Lea
Doncaster
Rotherham
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lea
Doncaster
Wycombe
0
4
L
03.02.26
Lea
Doncaster
Burton Albion
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Doncaster
Bradford
0
1
L
17.01.26
Lea
Doncaster
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
29.12.25
Lea
Doncaster
Stockport County
2
4
L
26.12.25
Lea
Doncaster
Blackpool
0
1
L
13.12.25
Lea
Doncaster
Cardiff
3
4
L
06.12.25
FA
Doncaster
Chesterfield
2
1
W
22.11.25
Lea
Doncaster
Stevenage
0
0
D
15.11.25
Lea
Doncaster
Lincoln
1
2
L
H2H away: Doncaster
18.04.26
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
1
3
W
27.08.22
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
0
1
W
05.12.20
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
0
2
W
09.09.17
H2H
Northampton
Doncaster
1
0
L

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two