BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Alfredo de Castilho
Noroeste
Match Timeline
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
53'
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
90'
Yuri Ferraz
Noroeste

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 51.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 40.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
-
BTTS Yes
51.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
40.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Noroeste Win 65.1%
Draw 14.2%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Win 20.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Noroeste1.13
Sampaio Corrêa RJ0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Noroeste Noroeste
WWDLW
11 GF / 7 GA
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
WLDWL
8 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.89
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Noroeste Noroeste 9 matches
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ 9 matches
Noroeste Statistic Sampaio Corrêa RJ
3 Wins 3
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 3
11 Goals For 8
7 Goals Against 9
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Noroeste's more proactive style and Sampaio Corrêa RJ's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sampaio Corrêa RJ. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sampaio Corrêa RJ having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Noroeste Analysis

Noroeste come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 12 points after 9 matches. With 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 11:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Marlyson (5 goals), Joao Bravo (2 goals), Pedro Carrerette (2 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Sampaio Corrêa RJ Analysis

Placed 3 with 12 points from 9 outings, Sampaio Corrêa RJ continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 8:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Elias (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Noroeste won 1 times, Sampaio Corrêa RJ won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Noroeste's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
H2H summary: Noroeste wins 1, draws 0, Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins 1
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
27.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
W
H2H: Noroeste vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
07.06.26
H2H
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
04.04.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
L
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
H2H at home: Noroeste
07.06.26
H2H
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
27.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
0
2
L
H2H away: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
07.06.26
H2H
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)