ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
31.07.2026 16:00
Referee: K. Kulljastinen
Nõmme United
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
A. Gero · Assist: M. Velijev
Trans Narva
🟨
24'
H. Jarvelaid
Nõmme United
31'
M. Velijev · Assist: W. Awusi
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
E. Ounapuu ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
A. Radomskiy ↔ K. Laanelaid
Nõmme United
🔄
62'
A. Truuvaart ↔ B. Vain
Nõmme United
🔄
63'
Elysee ↔ S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
63'
T. Berardozzi ↔ A. Filatov
Trans Narva
🔄
68'
M. Palts ↔ I. Krasnov
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
M. Velijev ↔ J. Imeh
Trans Narva
🔄
72'
J. Doke ↔ A. Besigirskis
Trans Narva
🟨
79'
G. Lagus
Nõmme United
🔄
88'
Eriks Santos ↔ S. Burjanadze
Trans Narva
🟨
90+3'
S. Burjanadze
Trans Narva
90'
A. Frolov
Nõmme United

Nõmme United vs Trans Narva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.5%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 58.5%
Draw 32.1%
Trans Narva Win 9.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United2.19
Trans Narva1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
59 GF / 65 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
27 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
2.19
Average Goals Scored
0.96
2.41
Average Goals Conceded
2.18
23
BTTS Yes
14
26
Over 2.5
20
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 27 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 28 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Trans Narva
12 Wins 5
2 Draws 5
13 Losses 18
59 Goals For 27
65 Goals Against 61
2.19 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
2.41 Avg Goals Conceded 2.18
23 BTTS Yes 14
27 Over 1.5 23
26 Over 2.5 20
18 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Trans Narva. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Nõmme United arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 25 points compared to Trans Narva in 10 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. Trans Narva arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nõmme United Analysis

Nõmme United are currently 7 in the standings with 25 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 1 draws, and 11 losses, while the 39:46 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 13 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 15:47 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 3 times, Trans Narva won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:18 from Nõmme United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Nõmme United 3-4-1-2 / Trans Narva -
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 3, draws 0, Trans Narva wins 5

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4 27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga