ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
19.09.2026 14:00

Nõmme United vs Paide Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.1%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 20.8%
Draw 10.1%
Paide Win 69.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United1.67
Paide1.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
66 GF / 84 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
65 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.59
2.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
28
BTTS Yes
28
32
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
0.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 35 matches
Paide Paide 41 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Paide
13 Wins 19
2 Draws 10
20 Losses 12
66 Goals For 65
84 Goals Against 55
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
2.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
28 BTTS Yes 28
33 Over 1.5 32
32 Over 2.5 22
21 Over 3.5 15
1 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0.43
0 Total Shots 1.43
0 Corners 0.71
0% Ball Possession 8.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paide's more proactive style and Nõmme United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Paide. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Paide carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 45 points while Nõmme United sit 8 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Nõmme United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 28 points from 27 games and a place of 8, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 1 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 44:62 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 45 points from 26 games, Paide bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 13 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with a 42:33 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 0 times, Paide won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:25 from Nõmme United's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Nõmme United 3-4-1-2 / Paide -
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 0, draws 0, Paide wins 7

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4
Paide Away
27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga