ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 55.6%
Draw 30.6%
Laagri Win 13.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United1.85
Laagri1.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
60 GF / 73 GA
Laagri Laagri
WLDWL
49 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.63
2.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
24
BTTS Yes
17
28
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 30 matches
Laagri Laagri 30 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Laagri
12 Wins 12
2 Draws 3
16 Losses 15
60 Goals For 49
73 Goals Against 49
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
2.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
24 BTTS Yes 17
29 Over 1.5 26
28 Over 2.5 21
19 Over 3.5 11
1 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Laagri. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Laagri having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 25 points from 23 games and a place of 7, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 1 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 40:54 goal record continues to suggest mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 25 points from 23 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 1 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 33:40 goal record continues to suggest mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 4 times, Laagri won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:18 from Nõmme United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.1%)
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 4, draws 0, Laagri wins 4
Last matches: Nõmme United
14.08.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
1
L
09.08.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
5
L
31.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
1
2
L
17.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
11.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
2
W
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
Last matches: Laagri
16.08.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
07.08.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
02.08.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
19.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
10.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
H2H: Nõmme United vs Laagri
20.06.26
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
W
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
30.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
0
1
W
14.08.24
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
3
0
L
22.10.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
5
1
L
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
W
28.04.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
4
2
L
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
14.08.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
1
L
31.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
1
2
L
11.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
2
W
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
6
L
H2H at home: Nõmme United
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
W
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
W
Last matches: Laagri
07.08.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
02.08.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
01.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Džiugas Telšiai
1
1
D
H2H away: Laagri
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
W
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
L
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 17 5 1 61:18 43 56
W W W D W
2 23 13 5 5 43:18 25 44
W W W D W
3 21 13 0 8 42:24 18 39
L W L W W
4 22 10 6 6 34:29 5 36
D W L W D
5 20 9 2 9 23:31 -8 29
W L L W W
6 22 8 3 11 30:42 -12 27
L D L W L
7 23 8 1 14 40:54 -14 25
L L L W W
8 23 8 1 14 33:40 -7 25
L L L W W
9 23 7 3 13 25:38 -13 24
W W L D L
10 24 5 2 17 18:55 -37 17
L D L W W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga