ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: J. Frischer
Nõmme United
Match Timeline
Laagri
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
R. Reimaa
Laagri
21'
Rudenko Daniil · Assist: K. Kriis
Laagri
40'
S. Liit
Nõmme United
🟨
56'
Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🔄
60'
S. Merilai ↔ B. Vain
Nõmme United
🔄
60'
K. Matas ↔ E. Ounapuu
Nõmme United
🔄
65'
M. Kelement ↔ K. Roomussaar
Laagri
🔄
65'
R. Sillamaa ↔ S. Soo
Laagri
🟨
71'
A. Frolov
Nõmme United
🔄
74'
K. Oostenbrink ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
74'
G. Kabal ↔ R. Chanda
Nõmme United
🔄
78'
K. Eerme ↔ E. Kajari
Laagri
🔄
78'
R. Reimaa ↔ K. Ennuste
Laagri
🔄
85'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United
87'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🔄
88'
K. Kriis ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
🟨
90+4'
K. Roomussaar
Laagri

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 48.5%
Draw 13.2%
Laagri Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United2.21
Laagri2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
36 GF / 31 GA
Laagri Laagri
WLDWL
25 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
2.77
Average Goals Scored
1.92
2.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
10
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 13 matches
Laagri Laagri 13 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Laagri
6 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
5 Losses 4
36 Goals For 25
31 Goals Against 18
2.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
2.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
10 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 8
10 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Nõmme United's more proactive style and Laagri's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Laagri having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Laagri. Laagri arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nõmme United Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Nõmme United have collected 7 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 16:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on O. Dacosta (4 goals), E. Ounapuu (3 goals), H. Jarvelaid (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (3 assists), K. Matas (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 9 points from 6 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 9:9, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Binate (2 goals), A. Jarve (1 goals), K. Eerme (1 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (5 assists), A. Binate (1 assists), M. Kelement (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 4 times, Laagri won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:18 from Nõmme United's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 4, draws 0, Laagri wins 4

Lineups

Nõmme United
Formation
Laagri
G. Purg
G. Purg
K. Oostenbrink
K. Oostenbrink
Y. Morishige
Y. Morishige
K. Laanelaid
K. Laanelaid
S. Merilai
S. Merilai
G. Kabal
G. Kabal
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
H. Jarvelaid
H. Jarvelaid
Z. Beglarishvili
Z. Beglarishvili
O. Dacosta
O. Dacosta
K. Matas
K. Matas
J. Vainula
J. Vainula
R. Reimaa
R. Reimaa
S. Liit
S. Liit
K. Laur
K. Laur
A. Jarve
A. Jarve
R. Sillamaa
R. Sillamaa
M. Kelement
M. Kelement
Rudenko Daniil
Rudenko Daniil
I. Kartau
I. Kartau
K. Eerme
K. Eerme
K. Kriis
🎯
K. Kriis
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
71
G. Purg
26
K. Oostenbrink
↓ 74'
2
Y. Morishige
23
K. Laanelaid
3
S. Merilai
↓ 60'
24
G. Kabal
↓ 74'
10
A. Frolov
🟨 71'
45
H. Jarvelaid
↓ 85'
49
Z. Beglarishvili
16
O. Dacosta
20
K. Matas
↓ 60'
Substitutes
1
G. Lagus
6
M. Palts
4
A. Alteberg
22
A. Radomskiy
13
A. Truuvaart
↑ 85'
8
B. Vain
↑ 60'
11
B. Chisala
↑ 74'
55
R. Chanda
↑ 74'
9
E. Ounapuu
↑ 60'
Laagri 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
J. Vainula
7
R. Reimaa
↓ 78' 🟨 15'
15
S. Liit
⚽ 40'
24
K. Laur
4
A. Jarve
13
R. Sillamaa
↓ 65'
17
M. Kelement
↓ 65'
23
Rudenko Daniil
⚽ 21' 🟨 56'
5
I. Kartau
9
K. Eerme
↓ 78'
16
K. Kriis
⚽ 87' 🎯 21' ↓ 88'
Substitutes
79
R. Meesit
6
H. Palutaja
11
A. Kose
↑ 88'
66
K. Roomussaar
↑ 65' 🟨 90+4'
18
I. Bah
21
S. Soo
↑ 65'
22
M. Kesa
41
E. Kajari
↑ 78'
32
S. Kerge
47
K. Ennuste
↑ 78'
53
J. Ndakala
Last matches: Nõmme United
17.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
11.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
2
W
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
Last matches: Laagri
19.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
10.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
H2H: Nõmme United vs Laagri
20.06.26
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
W
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
30.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
0
1
W
14.08.24
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
3
0
L
22.10.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
5
1
L
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
W
28.04.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
4
2
L
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
11.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
2
W
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
6
L
H2H at home: Nõmme United
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
W
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
W
Last matches: Laagri
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
01.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Džiugas Telšiai
1
1
D
H2H away: Laagri
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
W
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
L
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4 20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 20 8 1 11 39:46 -7 25
W W L W L
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 20 4 1 15 15:47 -32 13
W L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga