BELARUS 1. DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
City Stadium
Niva
Match Timeline
Smorgon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
A. Fazylov
Smorgon
🟨
32'
M. Dukso
Smorgon
🟨
35'
V. Dybin
Niva
41'
K. Elagin
Niva
57'
D. Fedortsov · Assist: D. Sibilev
Niva
🟨
59'
M. Autko
Smorgon
🔄
65'
D. Kovalev ↔ D. Khalimonchikov
Smorgon
🔄
65'
J. Nsangou ↔ A. Devyaten
Smorgon
🔄
67'
P. Pampukha ↔ D. Galuza
Niva
🔄
74'
V. Kovalevich ↔ I. Sivkov
Smorgon
🔄
74'
M. Dukso ↔ A. Stankevich
Smorgon
🔄
76'
V. Dybin ↔ A. Voronovich
Niva
🔄
84'
D. Sibilev ↔ V. Skomarovskiy
Niva
🔄
84'
A. Kuratnik ↔ E. Mashagin
Niva
87'
A. Voronovich
Niva

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Niva Win 51.2%
Draw 14.9%
Smorgon Win 33.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Niva1.58
Smorgon1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Niva Niva
WWDLW
16 GF / 21 GA
Smorgon Smorgon
WLDWL
9 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
0.82
2.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
8
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Niva Niva 10 matches
Smorgon Smorgon 11 matches
Niva Statistic Smorgon
4 Wins 2
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
16 Goals For 9
21 Goals Against 17
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
2.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
8 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Niva's more proactive style and Smorgon's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Smorgon. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Smorgon having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Niva arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 10 points compared to Smorgon in 17 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Smorgon arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Niva Analysis

So far, Niva have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 10 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 13:12 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Fedortsov (5 goals), P. Pampukha (3 goals), I. Monich (2 goals), with creative support from D. Fedortsov (2 assists), D. Galuza (2 assists), I. Monich (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Smorgon Analysis

With 3 points from 7 games and a place of 17, Smorgon still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 3:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Devyaten (1 goals), V. Kovalevich (1 goals), V. Myzgin (1 goals), with creative support from M. Dukso (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Niva won 1 times, Smorgon won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:0 from Niva's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
H2H summary: Niva wins 1, draws 0, Smorgon wins 0

Lineups

Smorgon
Formation
Niva
A. Denisenko
A. Denisenko
A. Telepov
A. Telepov
M. Autko
M. Autko
K. Elagin
K. Elagin
J. Nsangou
J. Nsangou
M. Dukso
M. Dukso
D. Kovalev
D. Kovalev
A. Fazylov
A. Fazylov
R. Kukhley
R. Kukhley
V. Kovalevich
V. Kovalevich
A. Tishko
A. Tishko
N. Dovnar
N. Dovnar
D. Sibilev
🎯
D. Sibilev
A. Kuratnik
A. Kuratnik
V. Dybin
V. Dybin
V. Shcherbo
V. Shcherbo
N. Leshkevich
N. Leshkevich
D. Fedortsov
D. Fedortsov
P. Pampukha
P. Pampukha
A. Tkhagalegov
A. Tkhagalegov
R. Kozel
R. Kozel
V. Bondarenko
V. Bondarenko
Smorgon 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
A. Denisenko
2
A. Telepov
3
M. Autko
🟨 59'
5
K. Elagin
⚽ 41'
7
J. Nsangou
↓ 65'
17
M. Dukso
↓ 74' 🟨 32'
25
D. Kovalev
↓ 65'
33
A. Fazylov
🟨 24'
47
R. Kukhley
78
V. Kovalevich
↓ 74'
27
A. Tishko
Substitutes
11
I. Sivkov
↑ 74'
22
V. Galko
23
A. Stankevich
↑ 74'
30
D. Khalimonchikov
↑ 65'
52
E. Mychelkin
59
A. Devyaten
↑ 65'
77
I. Bogdanovich
99
A. Starovoytov
19
A. Velesyuk
Niva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
N. Dovnar
8
D. Sibilev
🎯 57' ↓ 84'
9
A. Kuratnik
↓ 84'
10
V. Dybin
↓ 76' 🟨 35'
18
V. Shcherbo
21
N. Leshkevich
23
D. Fedortsov
⚽ 57'
29
P. Pampukha
↓ 67'
41
A. Tkhagalegov
88
R. Kozel
99
V. Bondarenko
Substitutes
35
D. Kashtelyan
3
M. Druchik
4
V. Milyutin
7
D. Galuza
↑ 67'
13
A. Sysoev
20
A. Martysevich
47
V. Skomarovskiy
↑ 84'
69
E. Mashagin
↑ 84'
91
A. Voronovich
⚽ 87' ↑ 76'
Last matches: Niva
10.07.26
1.
Niva
Slonim
2
2
D
04.07.26
1.
Niva
BATE II
5
0
W
27.06.26
1.
Niva
Uni Minsk
3
1
W
21.06.26
1.
Niva
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
6
0
W
14.06.26
1.
Niva
Gomel II
2
1
W
07.06.26
1.
Niva
Orsha
1
1
D
01.06.26
1.
Niva
Volna
0
1
L
17.05.26
1.
Niva
Bumprom
1
0
W
10.05.26
1.
Niva
Minsk II
3
1
W
02.05.26
1.
Niva
Osipovichy
4
2
W
26.04.26
1.
Niva
Lida
1
2
L
19.04.26
1.
Niva
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
2
D
11.04.26
1.
Niva
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1
3
L
04.04.26
1.
Niva
FC Slutsk
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
Niva
Neman
0
7
L
04.03.26
Fri
Niva
Baranovichi
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Niva
FC Minsk
1
1
D
Last matches: Smorgon
11.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Orsha
1
1
D
05.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Volna
1
3
L
27.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
0
W
20.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Bumprom
1
2
L
14.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Minsk II
1
0
W
06.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Osipovichy
5
0
W
31.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Lida
4
4
D
16.05.26
1.
Smorgon
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0
1
L
10.05.26
1.
Smorgon
FC Slutsk
1
1
D
02.05.26
1.
Smorgon
Dinamo Minsk II
1
3
L
24.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
18.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Slonim
0
2
L
10.04.26
1.
Smorgon
BATE II
1
1
D
04.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Uni Minsk
0
3
L
28.03.26
Fri
Smorgon
ML Vitebsk
2
4
L
04.03.26
Fri
Smorgon
Naftan
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Smorgon
FC Minsk
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Smorgon
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0
0
D
H2H: Niva vs Smorgon
23.05.26
H2H
Niva
Smorgon
3
0
W
Last matches: Niva
04.07.26
1.
Niva
BATE II
5
0
W
21.06.26
1.
Niva
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
6
0
W
07.06.26
1.
Niva
Orsha
1
1
D
10.05.26
1.
Niva
Minsk II
3
1
W
26.04.26
1.
Niva
Lida
1
2
L
19.04.26
1.
Niva
Shakhter Soligorsk
2
2
D
H2H at home: Niva
23.05.26
H2H
Niva
Smorgon
3
0
W
Last matches: Smorgon
11.07.26
1.
Smorgon
Orsha
1
1
D
20.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Bumprom
1
2
L
06.06.26
1.
Smorgon
Osipovichy
5
0
W
10.05.26
1.
Smorgon
FC Slutsk
1
1
D
24.04.26
1.
Smorgon
Ostrovets FC
0
0
D
10.04.26
1.
Smorgon
BATE II
1
1
D
28.03.26
Fri
Smorgon
ML Vitebsk
2
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
Smorgon
FC Minsk
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Smorgon
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0
0
D
H2H away: Smorgon
23.05.26
H2H
Niva
Smorgon
3
0
L

Standings

Division 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 11 2 2 32:16 16 35
W D L W W
2 15 10 4 1 37:16 21 34
D W W W W
3 15 8 3 4 27:23 4 27
W D W W W
4 15 8 3 4 28:17 11 27
D L W L D
5
Niva Home
15 8 3 4 35:18 17 27
D W W W W
6 14 7 3 4 29:20 9 24
L W D W L
7 14 7 2 5 23:21 2 23
W W W W W
8 14 7 2 5 29:20 9 23
L L W W D
9 14 6 4 4 29:18 11 22
L L W L W
10 15 6 1 8 21:31 -10 19
L W L L L
11 14 4 4 6 22:20 2 16
W W L L D
12 15 5 1 9 18:31 -13 16
W L W L L
13 14 4 3 7 15:25 -10 15
D W L L L
14 15 2 9 4 18:21 -3 15
D D D L D
15 15 4 3 8 13:24 -11 15
W D L L L
16 15 3 5 7 18:24 -6 14
D L W L W
17 15 2 5 8 20:37 -17 11
L L L L W
18 15 1 1 13 15:47 -32 4
L L L W L
Promotion - Vysshaya Liga
Promotion - Vysshaya Liga (Promotion)
Relegation